WhiteoutWX

The 18z HRRR scenario would definitely be high risk worthy. Multiple rounds of discrete supercells in an unbelievable environment. Just one model but man that's worrisome for most of Oklahoma if even part of that verified.

Agreed on not going high until tomorrow morning at the earliest. Gotta see how early morning convection behaves and how far north the warm front makes it.

Looks like SPC pretty much maintained previous outlook, with some changes mainly to expand the enhanced eastward into Arkansas, with the mention of strong tornadoes possible even into eastern OK and western Arkansas, depending on if convection can initiate there.

Definitely looks messy but I don’t know if I would characterize that look as totally upscale or linear. Looks like line segments with probable embedded supercells. With that environment I’d still think there would be plenty of tornado risk, just maybe not pristine and clean for chasers.

Some of the CAMs are hinting at discrete activity along the lifting warm front tomorrow morning. Shear is good through the morning so if these cells could become surface based the tornado threat could start early and extend eastward into central OK. HRRR probably looks most concerning regarding this possibility but taken verbatim it appears the cells cross the warm front and are elevated. Lifting warm front scenarios can be sneaky tho and this should be watched IMO. Overall though I agree with SPC basically leaving the risk area as is given some uncertainty with storm mode/initiation.

Man that low level jet is CRANKING through the whole day over Oklahoma on Monday. If discrete cells go up in that environment, look out...

Unfortunately wind profiles are kinda crap that far west by Saturday afternoon with the 850 winds weakening and veering. Even if instability was able to recover and storms redevelop tomorrow afternoon, don’t expect much in terms of a tornado threat.

I think Monday *may* still hold promise across portions of Oklahoma, if convection doesn't get too extensive south of the warm front (big if at this point). Profiles still look pretty good on the GFS along and south of the front with a lot of low-level turning and pretty good clockwise curvature above that. Even the Euro shows a lot of shear with enough instability Monday afternoon to make me think a substantial tornado threat could exist if a few storms can remain discrete. It's very conditional but I wouldn't completely give up on it yet. Both models show what looks like a pretty major flood threat with tons of QPF over areas that have seen as much as 10 inches of rain in the past 30 days or so.

GFS is really trending in the wrong direction for the Fri-Mon period. Went from good, broad WSW flow mostly perpendicular to the dryline over good chase terrain with (implied) discrete activity to now showing a total mess. Fri is a late show after dark, Saturday the wave is poorly timed and plagued by tons of early morning convection as is Monday. Best environments both those days now over eastern OK, Arkansas, or Texas. Really disappointing overall but also all too familiar with how the previous few years have gone. Could still shift back but the trends are concerning is all I’m saying.

GFS and ECM still have large differences regarding the trough amplitude in the Fri-Sun period. One (GFS) being much more low amplitude/zonal mid level flow while the other has much more meridonial flow over the plains as the trough ejects. I think for me the GFS would be preferred for more discrete activity and also would have a better shot at a multi-day threat. We know meridonial flow often gets messy. Either model would imply at least one good day during the period though. After that we may have a couple day break before trough reloads to the west. Also, GFS is showing the dryline getting pretty far east into Oklahoma and I would almost guarantee it verifies further to the west, which would bring it underneath more favorable wind fields than currently progged. Something to keep in mind.

I think the models have consistently shown an overall favorable pattern but have been jumping around regarding the ceiling of the period. Could be something great or could be something more along “average” climo for this time of year. Depends on how the trough orientation sets up and the individual waves eject out into the plains. Models have occasionally shown some blockiness over the eastern US as well which could complicate the setup some. Still far enough out that I’m just in a wait and see mode.

Wednesday looks like the least likely day for widespread tornadoes compared to today and Tuesday. That squall line Tuesday night is going to really work everything over I don’t see the airmass recovering behind it enough at this point. Could be wrong, but most times when we count on recovery behind an MCS it doesn’t happen.

Looks like the Tuesday night/Wednesday morning crashing MCS idea seems to be gaining traction on the models. May wipe out or at least greatly reduce Wednesday's potential. 12z GFS shows the extensive overnight convection but has no impact on moisture fields which is highly suspect. I think the NAM may be more realistic.

I’m sure one of the days will end up having better potential than the others for severe but with multiple days of convection each day will likely depend on the previous and makes it hard to pick one from this range. Definitely looks like a lot of rain for Texas especially.

The NAM looks in between the Euro and GFS. I think the Big difference between the GFS/Euro is how much morning convection there is. Euro has a lot through the morning which helps to propagate the front further south. Hard to know from this range which is more likely.

Nice to see maybe not all hope is lost. I haven’t had a chance to look at the Euro though.

No one wants to jinx it given the past few years...

Tomorrow’s problems aren’t only just VBV related as there is a distinct weakness in the low-mid level flow that will likely inhibit updraft rotation/longevity and will make it harder for tornadic activity than VBV alone would suggest. Could this weakness be overdone in the models? Perhaps. But at this point we need wholesale changes to the mid level synoptic pattern to support more than just a very isolated/brief tornado threat.

The profiles are awful in the 850-700 mb layer all across the outlook area. Struggling to find anywhere that looks decent for tornado potential tomorrow. Small pockets here and there with slightly better mid level flow but I don’t think the models will get such fine scale details right with any lead time. Overall this system is just disjointed and you see that with all the odd looking model soundings. I wouldn’t rule out a tornado or two somewhere in the region but I also wouldn’t be surprised if we saw none at all and end up with some pretty messy storm modes.

Not convective severe but 60-70 mph wind gusts being observed the past couple hours in/near the TROWAL over parts of north Texas/southern Oklahoma.

Lol SPC with one of the smallest D2 slight risks I’ve seen. Its just going to be such a small window in space and time for any storm to have tornado potential. Still early in the season just not quite coming together yet.

Very late moisture return into OK on Wednesday has me unenthused for anything besides an isolated hail/wind threat at this point. Northerly winds over the Gulf lingering all the way into Tuesday evening will make it impossible to get much Gulf moisture into the area.

SPC sounding climo shows 45 as the daily max for March 12 at 00z. Max for the entire month of March is only 48...

Pattern looks favorable for *some* type of winter system for the southern plains next weekend/early next week. That’s about all that can be said at this point. As everyone knows models have been abysmal this year in the day 5-7 range so expect tons of shifting around. Don’t hang your hopes on any one model run.

I’ve also felt over the last few months the FV3 has generally been less consistent and more jumpy run-to-run. Does anyone have verification scores or comparisons for the two models? I’d like to see some data to back up my somewhat subjective observations.