tnweathernut

I feel attacked here……. lol

I'm not sure who remembers AM Weather (really showing my age), but it was primarily an agricultural/aviation weather program I'd watch before school every morning in the winter time. This map is a fancy version of what you'd see on that program. I like it because it's old school. lol

That was my understanding, but I'm not sure what lead time the person was talking about. If it was less than 24-36 hours that's a lot different than NAM had it nailed from 84.

Yesterday, I was reading some on another forum covering the Chicago snow (can’t remember where I saw it), but was talking about the NAM being the only one not on board with a major snow). It ended up beating all the other models. It’s interesting because our system is projected so much further north than other modeling on the NAM. If it continues to stay north, will be fascinating to see if it can score a similar victory. I will say I have seen numerous overrunning setups in the past be further north and/or have that SW to NE trajectory vs the WSW to ENE trajectory once it starts developing. The good thing is, we don’t have to wait too much longer to find out.

Those snow weenies in the mid Atlantic forum might be about to lose their minds seeing this thing just roll out to sea on the GFS.

0z GFS really does complete the picture by giving everyone in TN something to cheer for. I see you Chattanooga with those 5 kuchera inches…….

Pretty normal oscillations happening, IMO. In the overall scheme of things we see models waffling back and forth about 75-100 miles. Probably not unreasonable. We can all hope the overrunning is a bit more robust when we get to game time.

It shouldn’t be, but I have learned to never discount it completely.

The ICON seems to be putting less emphasis on the low in the Atlantic and more on the low in the gulf. I don’t think it really matters as it relates to the overrunning which spreads across the state, but I did find it interesting.

Agree. I was waiting for the heavier snow bands on the icon to pivot through NE TN. For some reason they just dissipate. Not likely, but I suppose it could have been downslope aided.

ICON spreading the overrunning love here at 0z

Long duration event in east TN. Likely 2-3 more hours of snow left to go past 84

At least there’s a model for everyone in the state tonight….

Gong to be a bunch of nervous people in here waiting for the rest of 0z to come in. Middle and west TN, especially north of 40 looking good with the 0z NAM

Yeah, I noticed that. My downslope city comment was mostly in jest, but it’s always in the back of my mind. It’s been showing on models on and off all day. The two things we do extremely well up here are dryslots and downslope.

It looks like you guys/gals down around Knoxville have a GREAT shot with this one. Should be fairly widespread. This track has already been more fun than anything we got a look at last year.

Except for the Johnson City area. We are the Chattanooga of northeast TN. I'm going to lobby the leaders of our city to change our name to "Downslope" City. lol

Just trying to get everyone's attention in advance. "mainly in the higher elevations" is a very safe phrase to use. JMO. lol

Phone has been ringing all day here. About 75% of them have been to file a claim. I need a vacation.

I agree with this and have mentioned it several times. Modeling doesn't do well showing overrunning precip. Seems they are echoing that sentiment with their last sentence.

I don't have much confidence in it being consistent like it used to be, but I agree. I definitely want it on board!

Definitely perplexing. The Euro (before their changes a while back) was easily the best model for north america at day 5-7 and it usually wasn't close. Maybe their changes have helped their forecasting in Europe, but it's been woefully inconsistent here where we need it. lol

I usually take away the two biggest and the two smallest and then take the average from the remaining.

Just looking at the UK model. It's been pretty consistent regarding the snow axis the last three runs. Nice battle between the American modeling with the snow axis further southeast and the UK with the snow axis further northwest.

Looking like kids are likely going to miss quite a bit of school the next two weeks.