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tnweathernut

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  1. tnweathernut
    It’s probable what transpires over the next week (assuming the -EPO has merit) will give a much better idea where the EPO will be. Trends the next week or so will show which form the EPO takes (east vs west). Again, if it’s an accurate depiction about where we are headed....... Glad to see the SOI really tanking the last couple of days.
  2. tnweathernut
    Merry Christmas to the best weather people in the best sub-forum on the best weather forum on the Internet... Hope you guys/gals have a GREAT day!
  3. tnweathernut
    Not trying to throw shade at all the MJO discussion. In fact, I have enjoyed reading the forum this AM and in past days....... but..... Are we sure the MJO is driving this bus? I’m not sure I remember a time where the MJO signal and forecasts were all over the place. They are mostly in and around the COD or in low amplitude.... Where the convection increases/sustains, and where it fades in the coming days will likely cause more forecast changes in the near term. Maybe we will soon start to get a more consistent MJO forecast and better consistency wrt sensible weather impacts along with it (for better or worse - colder or warmer). I just wonder if we aren’t missing something else of equal or greater importance?
  4. tnweathernut
    Euro LR seems to revert to something less than desirable, but the day 10-12 look is pretty good. It shows how something can be squeezed in this time of year when a front-running system cuts into the northern plains/great lakes and another piece following should be forced further south. Trusting modeling beyond day 4 is not a good idea, but at least it's active.
  5. tnweathernut
    For those with Tapatalk, have they worked out all their kinks? I had it for a while and loved it, but then they made changes which caused me to delete it. Just wondering what the user experience is like now?
  6. tnweathernut
    Morning SOI update. The SOI is at -14.38. 10 straight days of negative departures.
  7. tnweathernut
    Good posts the last couple of days from everyone. @Holston_River_Rambler, man, you have been putting in some work and @Carvers Gap bringing the heat, literally. lol My non-scientific analysis is below. “It’s always darkest before the dawn” ”Just because you hit rock bottom, doesn’t mean you have to stay there” its all I got ........other than it’s still only Dec 19th. Plenty of time left to realize a good winter. Wall to wall cold isn’t a staple of winters in the mid-south and false starts are what we seem to do best. My glass is still half full, even though it does look like someone took an extra sip or two from it the last 24-48 hours. Hang in there winter lovers, we will flip the script before too much longer.....
  8. tnweathernut
    and a couple of more just a few weeks later.... lol
  9. tnweathernut
    Go ahead and jump if you want, but the winter bus will be firing soon. Too much pessimism for Dec 16th. Might be because of last year........ but the SST’s in the Pacific are not the same as last year and the SOI was solidly negative again today. Once the MJO interference subsides I think you will see modeling react in a positive way. Until then, enjoy time with family and a warmish Christmas.
  10. tnweathernut
    The only weather stocks I am buying currently is variability and moisture. No prolonged cold, no prolonged warm. We are into mid December and we have had three winter events to track. We have also seen a couple of -NAO’s (one realized, one upcoming on modeling). Unlike many years in the past decade this has felt like a fairly normal start to a winter season. Heck, several even got to enjoy post frontal snow, almost a weather unicorn these days. I think it’s only a matter of time before one of these variable looks offers another chance to track. Much below average temps, as we head deeper into winter, aren’t needed to get it done. Hope everyone has a good weekend.......
  11. tnweathernut
    The weak -NAO shown in charts for day 6 is actually a well placed west based -NAO. Sometimes we can look at the chart and see average, but the actual look at 500 can be MUCH better. I have attached the chart to show day 7 (basically neutral in the NAO domain), but the 500 map seems to show a robust west based -NAO. It's kind of like looking at the MJO and noticing the convection doesn't really jive with modeling at times.
  12. tnweathernut
    The 12z Euro is turning to a -NAO. Really close call at 144 now for winter weather in the mid-south. Should the Atlantic break the way shown i won't be surprised if we have another threat to track by the end of the week...
  13. tnweathernut
    meh, less than 2 feet in my back yard. I will pass............. lol
  14. tnweathernut
    What will ultimately decide how far south the system at 144 can go will go will be the system in the north Atlantic around day 6. The 0z GFS from last night shows a legit evolution to what would be needed to force systems coming through the plains further south. The storm in the north Atlantic created a brief west based -NAO while also providing a slightly displaced 50/50. That made it tough for the plains system to gain latitude. 6z backed off this evolution for the storm in the north Atlantic, but it's not impossible to see this trend more positively in the coming days. Looks like the Pacific will go to poo poo for a bit, but my guess is we are just re-shuffling a bit and nothing will hit and hold through the end of the year and into next.
  15. tnweathernut
    I woke up and saw 14 and thought man, the Euro must have thrown a bone last night..... nope. lol
  16. tnweathernut
    The Canadian snow map is pretty, eh?
  17. tnweathernut
    Modeling (euro/gfs) is generally doing a pretty good job from 144 hours out it appears. Just toggling back through prior runs and they look to be generally accurate (placement of high to the north and low to the south) for the system projected through here in the next day or so. I did notice a bit too much progression in the southern branch from the GFS and both look to miss the strength of the high pressure by several MB (1035 to 1037 from 6 days out, now projected to be 1030 to 1032) I also noted the western ridge backing just a bit on modeling, especially the GFS. Just a few things to watch as the 12z runs come in. This run of the GFS already has fairly sizable changes from 6z at 500....
  18. tnweathernut
    Yeah, and that wedge would not erode as quickly as modeled. Would be a major winter storm in the CAD areas as portrayed. Now is the threat real, who knows? It does make sense to see something like that with what’s going on at 500.
  19. tnweathernut
    Sure looks like it. If there was something to hold that (1040+) high in place it would have shown a big winter storm. With the high moving at such a fast speed any winter chances would rely solely on perfect timing. That is usually pretty hard to come by. There does appear to be an open window of opportunity though. Maybe we can luck into something? The southern stream just keeps sending moisture at us...... Also, not that it’s worth talking about day 10+, but the Euro at 12z appears to be setting up for a doozy of a storm just beyond hour 240. Surface reflection in the central gulf and energy and cold diving in to capture it. It’s always fun to imagine the possibilities!
  20. tnweathernut
    Maybe, but the moisture stream off the Pacific still looks good. Keep that look consistently and you'd think we have to score eventually.
  21. tnweathernut
    back in the day I remember a southwest low not being a terrible thing. Would spit out smaller disturbances and with enough cold provide lighter snow opportunities. Then, when the main system kicked there would be a chance at a major system somewhere in the east. If the cold is tough to dislodge, ice becomes a much bigger concern. Let's see how the pattern evolves. Nothing but good vibes today, which is always fun...
  22. tnweathernut
    I was to blame last year. After the Dec snow I went out and bought a UTV and plow.... didn’t snow again. Glad it’s someone else this year.
  23. tnweathernut
    Speaking of LR difficulties in December and if you want to see a great example of the butterfly effect in full effect, take a look at the 500mb level on tropical tidbits beyond day 10. This current run (12z) is night and day different over the top. There is so much blocking showing on this run and it's an almost complete 180 from the last several runs. Just toggle between prior runs and you will see why educated guesses into the future often fail.
  24. tnweathernut
    Good stuff the last couple of posts, @Carvers Gap. This may be a bit off topic, but........ It's almost comical when we go back and look through old long range threads we are always talking about the same indexes, what looks good for winter and which things might throw a wrench into things. All I can definitively say is this science (beyond a couple of days) is one of, it not THE toughest things on earth one can venture into to make educated guesses on. I feel like modeling has come a long way in the last couple of decades, but I am not sure the professional community/scientists ever (in our lifetimes) make a ton of headway in long range prediction. The butterfly effect is always working against the smartest individuals the planet has to offer. It's not like we can expect non-linear equations to ever become linear. lol All that said, I can't say how much I appreciate those who do this for a living and how much I am bothered by people with zero understanding cracking meteorologist jokes like it should be easy.. On topic, if a gun was held to my head I'd go with a 65% chance of above normal temps in December with a variable pattern of warm and cold. A lot of this guess is simply based in climatology and the atmosphere acting like a fairly healthy Nino right now. The biggest wildcard is the beating the strat is taking and how that may affects things going forward.
  25. tnweathernut
    Winter in the 90's were in a really warm period, yet in northeast Tennessee we managed a great snow year (1996) and two other huge snows (1993 and 1998). I was thinking back to this just a couple of days ago. As warm and "relatively" snowless as that decade was it provided snows and snowy periods not really seen since. I just want to have the internet and modeling we have now and to go have something like that to track.......... Can you all imagine how exhausted we'd be if we were tracking another 1993 from 7-10 days out?? As far as where we go in December, I am not at all worried. Last year parts of east Tennessee saw a major snow before Dec 10th and then winter was largely over. This year, if it's warm I will just enjoy it and know we have January and February ahead of us. It can't be as bad as last year. (seems like I have thought this several times in the last 10 years, lol) Quick everyone, look at the 500 level. There is a unicorn there, the -NAO. Maybe it will come visit more as we get deeper into winter. Happy early Thanksgiving to everyone on the board! Hope you enjoy time with family and friends the next several days. I am sure we can all think of many things to be grateful for....
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