Chinook

It's a curious coincidence that this value, in rotational degrees, also corresponds with 33 Fahrenheit degrees for melting, which is just above the freezing point.

The ECMWF today shows some snow on Wednesday for northern Colorado, with the large weather system. That maybe something to watch.

follow up to that with a less hi-resolution source, with percentage vs departure (subtraction)

so smooth with the radar

DuPage has 34 degrees and report of freezing rain at the airport. Any person from this board there that can confirm ice is forming onto trees or sidewalks? Just wondering.

I know you guys don't normally talk about Omaha, but there is 5"-9" spotter reports there right now.

not quite in Denver

These cells on the HRRR are in the 10% tornado risk zone, near Memphis, late at night. The soundings on the HRRR show STP (effective) of 2.7-3.4 right next to those near Memphis.

What will the NWS web page, and really, the entire weather enterprise, look like without ADVISORIES, which I believe will not exist as of 2024? It would be so strange not to see any winter weather advisory on the map.

WPC values really only support the 6"-11" for Pueblo to the Raton Mesa, 5" -7" for the Palmer Divide, possibly 5"-9" for Colorado Springs

I'm glad I didn't have to fly before and after Christmas. The cold wave blizzard plus 17000 flights cancelled by Southwest Airlines! There's probably a low chance I would have been on Southwest, but I have had flights with them before. From what I have heard, the problems with Southwest started in Denver, where the significant temperature drop caused them to start cancelling or delaying flights, I believe. Then their scheduling problems became so much larger. Also, I would have probably scheduled a Denver to Detroit flight close to that cold wave day(s).

Models generally have Larimer/Weld counties with pretty low amounts of snow. I believe it is due to mainly downsloping from the north at the surface. Also I think a lot of the lift will be towards southern Colorado.

The models predict a significant snow storm next Wednesday. As usual the GFS is loving the 11.8 to 18.1" near Denver, as it always loves forecasting high amounts of snow for the roughly 5-day forecast. Lots could change before the NWS issues a winter storm watch, but I do expect a winter storm watch at some time.

This 500mb chart makes me think of tornadoes in March. As for now, SPC has 10% enhanced outlook for tornadoes today (-not- enhanced for wind/hail)

Under "Anatomy and Physiology of Frosty the Snowman"

It's so snowy, you can't even see the prediction

snowflake pic that I put on my web page

54 degrees warmer for Ontario

My place had 4 sunny days in a row with snow on the ground. The last time my place had 4 sunny days within maybe a span of 5 days was probably November or October, with nearly summertime temperatures.

As I mentioned in the Lakes/Ohio Valley banter thread, I have a hard time imagining a -44 degree value without radiational cooling and a valley with lighter winds, or at least some localized low spot. It's truly a once-in-a-generation 850mb temperature up there and also the same for wind chills for some.

finally caught a good cloud

I can't imagine -44 without radiational cooling and mostly calm winds.

The wind gets faster over mountain peaks and some mountain passes. The air is forced into a smaller- volume space: the mountain, and other air above it. You get a faster wind by conservation of mass flow. And maybe extra turbulence.

Here a note on the Northeast wind chill blast. The GFS has -40C temps at 850mb for the Caribou, Maine area. I think it will be very close to a record or record-breaking at Caribou. The record coldest 850mb temperature is -39.40 Celsius as per the SPC page that has this stuff. The "median" would be -11.7 Celsius.

Here is other note on the Northeast wind chill blast. The GFS has -40C temps at 850mb for the Caribou, Maine area. I think it will be very close to a record or record-breaking at Caribou. The record coldest 850mb temperature is -39.40 Celsius as per the SPC page that has this stuff. The "median" would be -11.7 Celsius.