Chinook

These cells on the HRRR are in the 10% tornado risk zone, near Memphis, late at night. The soundings on the HRRR show STP (effective) of 2.7-3.4 right next to those near Memphis.

What will the NWS web page, and really, the entire weather enterprise, look like without ADVISORIES, which I believe will not exist as of 2024? It would be so strange not to see any winter weather advisory on the map.

WPC values really only support the 6"-11" for Pueblo to the Raton Mesa, 5" -7" for the Palmer Divide, possibly 5"-9" for Colorado Springs

I'm glad I didn't have to fly before and after Christmas. The cold wave blizzard plus 17000 flights cancelled by Southwest Airlines! There's probably a low chance I would have been on Southwest, but I have had flights with them before. From what I have heard, the problems with Southwest started in Denver, where the significant temperature drop caused them to start cancelling or delaying flights, I believe. Then their scheduling problems became so much larger. Also, I would have probably scheduled a Denver to Detroit flight close to that cold wave day(s).

Models generally have Larimer/Weld counties with pretty low amounts of snow. I believe it is due to mainly downsloping from the north at the surface. Also I think a lot of the lift will be towards southern Colorado.

The models predict a significant snow storm next Wednesday. As usual the GFS is loving the 11.8 to 18.1" near Denver, as it always loves forecasting high amounts of snow for the roughly 5-day forecast. Lots could change before the NWS issues a winter storm watch, but I do expect a winter storm watch at some time.

This 500mb chart makes me think of tornadoes in March. As for now, SPC has 10% enhanced outlook for tornadoes today (-not- enhanced for wind/hail)

Under "Anatomy and Physiology of Frosty the Snowman"

It's so snowy, you can't even see the prediction

snowflake pic that I put on my web page

54 degrees warmer for Ontario

My place had 4 sunny days in a row with snow on the ground. The last time my place had 4 sunny days within maybe a span of 5 days was probably November or October, with nearly summertime temperatures.

As I mentioned in the Lakes/Ohio Valley banter thread, I have a hard time imagining a -44 degree value without radiational cooling and a valley with lighter winds, or at least some localized low spot. It's truly a once-in-a-generation 850mb temperature up there and also the same for wind chills for some.

finally caught a good cloud

I can't imagine -44 without radiational cooling and mostly calm winds.

The wind gets faster over mountain peaks and some mountain passes. The air is forced into a smaller- volume space: the mountain, and other air above it. You get a faster wind by conservation of mass flow. And maybe extra turbulence.

Here a note on the Northeast wind chill blast. The GFS has -40C temps at 850mb for the Caribou, Maine area. I think it will be very close to a record or record-breaking at Caribou. The record coldest 850mb temperature is -39.40 Celsius as per the SPC page that has this stuff. The "median" would be -11.7 Celsius.

Here is other note on the Northeast wind chill blast. The GFS has -40C temps at 850mb for the Caribou, Maine area. I think it will be very close to a record or record-breaking at Caribou. The record coldest 850mb temperature is -39.40 Celsius as per the SPC page that has this stuff. The "median" would be -11.7 Celsius.

Part of Ontario near Sudbury is 49F degrees, or 27.2 C degrees, lower than yesterday. Sudbury went -4C to -33C in about 23 hours.

48 hrs of storm reports. I have changed the colors a bit so you can read the freezing rain reports.

The world's windiest place

This is a rare wind chill index (Maine), also with winds of 30kt immediately above the surface.

This would scare me

Now that a lot of the West is in a non-active pattern, I'll post this

this bus went out of control at 5-10mph and swiped a car