Chinook

I think they said 2ft-4ft for the Sierra summits. It has mostly already happened.

Here are my 250mb wind loops for fall/winter. https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Sep_1_18_2023_250mb_loop.html https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Sep_17_30_2023_250mb_loop.html https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Oct_1_15_2023_250mb_loop.html https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Oct_16_31_2023_250mb_loop.html https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Nov_1_15_2023_250mb_loop.html https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Nov_16_30_2023_250mb_loop.html https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Dec_1_10_2023_250mb_loop.html https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Dec_11_20_2023_250mb_loop.html https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Dec_21_31_2023_250mb_loop.html https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Jan_1_17_2024_250mb_loop.html https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Jan_17_31_2024_250mb_loop.html https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Feb_1_15_2024_250mb_loop.html https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Feb_16_29_2024_250mb_loop.html I made all the loops because I wanted to know what was happening far out in the Pacific, and I wanted to organize it so that others can learn from it. Here are 250mb and 850mb wind anomalies for nearly all of meteorological winter up to a couple of days ago. It looks like the 850mb winds were more likely to transport moisture towards California and Oregon. Otherwise, I think the 250mb wind anomalies are pretty standard for El Nino, but you guys can comment if you want to.

wow, didn't realize it got to 70 degrees north of Lansing. current 24 hour temp change. As for yesterday, I posted one of these that had a 60 degree temperature drop in Nebraska. For all I can remember, a value of 60 degrees downwards is close to the max I've seen in Wyoming and such areas.

local storm reports (also including non-severe hail, non-severe wind) for Chicago

tornado debris signature was a few miles north of Marshall

seems to be a strong delta-v of about 125 mph

I don't have any memory of seeing lightning in February, but now I do.

you know what? that looks fake, but it's tough to call out a random person on twitter.

this is the "TORD" radar view of the Inverness tornado

anybody here see hail like this?

this may have been the best radar scan for the tornado at Inverness

radar for possible tornado(es) at Geneva

possible new confirmed tornado

the supercell indices in February...

60 degrees colder

Now you can see the polar jet stream trough combining with the subtropical jet streak with lots of diffluence/divergence in the Midwest.

Grlevel3 already has hail information on the two new ones

Cyclone77 storm

record high at Fort Wayne

It's 96 in Texas

There are lots of watches warnings, and advisories. It is snowing, windy, or on fire. Maybe half the country is on fire. We are not sure.

A large upper level trough will develop next week and one possibility is snow and cold temperatures in northern Colorado. The current models have a quick hit for the snow, but I suppose that could change. I think the trough may move too fast. On the severe weather side of things: The models have the 60 dew points from Texas into the Midwest. The SPC has given out an unusual Day-6 severe weather outlook, as shown. I figure the Illinois folks may eventually talk about this.

Here are the temps today at 20z, with contours from 50 to 80 highlighted. It feels nice to not be 30 and cloudy. I guess I might get cancelled by some snowlovers by saying that.

anybody getting cold this winter?

That sort of area always has an icy snowpack on the trail, as people walk on it and pack it down. I don't know if that helps. There's also another reason that I didn't go to Greyrock too much in the winter: the small parking lot has a mostly shaded area where you have to drive up a few feet. The slope may be icy. So, yes, you might get some icy stuff in exactly the places where you don't want. Hewlett Gulch has a road and parking lot that should be in the sun. Also, way less mountainous terrain at the trail. Still, might have some packed ice.