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Everything posted by Chinook
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We are nearly one month into winter for the long-expected El Nino. How close are we to the typical impacts on precipitation? Not a whole lot of precipiation for E Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, or Nevada. So, not necessarily 100% correlation on the precipitation. Also, a drought has developed at my place in the last US Drought Monitor
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Mountain West Discussion- cool season '23-24
Chinook replied to mayjawintastawm's topic in Central/Western States
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This is the meteorological code for "raisin". But seriously, a major city in our area is getting raindrops and snowflakes at the same time, or the airport is confused, maybe. KSTL 271651Z COR 12008KT 4SM RASN BR SCT008 OVC016 03/01 A2986 RMK AO2 SNB44 SLP118 P0010 T00280006
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Mountain West Discussion- cool season '23-24
Chinook replied to mayjawintastawm's topic in Central/Western States
The forecasts for this snowfall continued to be shifted westward. I saw there are blizzard warnings in the area. So, I guess this is happening -
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some people say, "cut-off low, weatherman's woe."
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Mountain West Discussion- cool season '23-24
Chinook replied to mayjawintastawm's topic in Central/Western States
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Mountain West Discussion- cool season '23-24
Chinook replied to mayjawintastawm's topic in Central/Western States
The NWS is broadbrushing this snow event for Christmas Eve, which seems right. The current models have pretty much zero for Weld County, though. -
New loops https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Dec_1_10_2023_250mb_loop.html https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Dec_11_20_2023_250mb_loop.html loop specific to our combination storm of the last few days. I find it just fascinating that storm elements combine in wintertime scenarios. https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Dec_15_20_2023_500mb_loop.html
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Mountain West Discussion- cool season '23-24
Chinook replied to mayjawintastawm's topic in Central/Western States
The 00z models are still showing a lot of variations as to how the Christmas Eve snow event will happen. The GFS says that some snow will come in to the Front Range cities as early as 12/23 at 8:00 in the evening. Here is the GFS for 09z, which is 2:00AM on Christmas Eve. Some areas of heavy snow will be in the southwestern portion of Colorado, with southerly flow on the San Juans. There should be varying amounts in the rest of the mountains. The Plains/cities will have a more challenging forecast for snow amounts throughout the entire 24-hour period on Christmas Eve. The models will try to figure out the snowfall rates and maybe try to decide if the temperature will be below freezing, or something helpful like that. -
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Here's something kind of neat. This storm's top analog for this evening's charts is 1/1/1987, also an El Nino winter. Would've been a washout for maybe New Years eve celebrations like it was a washout for Florida this morning
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there we go we have a category 3 non-surface wind non-hurricane, but impressive nonetheless. I wonder if the NWS wind warnings for such areas as Rhode Island will be too low with values of 60mph mentioned. Edit: the latest HRRR has around 60kt for parts of New England, max gusts, and that is over 60mph, but also, probably overdone a bit.
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yeah, no cold air mass to really work with. No cold air mass to power up that ever-elusive "cold conveyor belt," one of my favorite terms.
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Sure, rain.
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Mountain West Discussion- cool season '23-24
Chinook replied to mayjawintastawm's topic in Central/Western States
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yeah with a million severe weather reports, 2 years ago today! Ouch! Up to 58 degrees here, with dew point of 28, not too much wind. I am starting to believe I'm back in Colorado with wintertime warm days. It's a blue sky with some cirrus clouds, much like a lot of ridge-days in Colorado. I'm walking outside, thinking I'll see a lenticular cloud over Longmont or something, then I remember I'm not there. Thanks, Mr. El Nino! to commemorate our really nice day--
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Mountain West Discussion- cool season '23-24
Chinook replied to mayjawintastawm's topic in Central/Western States
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Mountain West Discussion- cool season '23-24
Chinook replied to mayjawintastawm's topic in Central/Western States
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Mountain West Discussion- cool season '23-24
Chinook replied to mayjawintastawm's topic in Central/Western States