Chinook

We are nearly one month into winter for the long-expected El Nino. How close are we to the typical impacts on precipitation? Not a whole lot of precipiation for E Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, or Nevada. So, not necessarily 100% correlation on the precipitation. Also, a drought has developed at my place in the last US Drought Monitor

this is what the NWS says for the snowfall as of last night

This is the meteorological code for "raisin". But seriously, a major city in our area is getting raindrops and snowflakes at the same time, or the airport is confused, maybe. KSTL 271651Z COR 12008KT 4SM RASN BR SCT008 OVC016 03/01 A2986 RMK AO2 SNB44 SLP118 P0010 T00280006

The forecasts for this snowfall continued to be shifted westward. I saw there are blizzard warnings in the area. So, I guess this is happening

yikes

59 deg yesterday

some people say, "cut-off low, weatherman's woe."

expanding level of winter storm information / blizzard warnings for the northern Plains

The NWS is broadbrushing this snow event for Christmas Eve, which seems right. The current models have pretty much zero for Weld County, though.

New loops https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Dec_1_10_2023_250mb_loop.html https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Dec_11_20_2023_250mb_loop.html loop specific to our combination storm of the last few days. I find it just fascinating that storm elements combine in wintertime scenarios. https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Dec_15_20_2023_500mb_loop.html

The 00z models are still showing a lot of variations as to how the Christmas Eve snow event will happen. The GFS says that some snow will come in to the Front Range cities as early as 12/23 at 8:00 in the evening. Here is the GFS for 09z, which is 2:00AM on Christmas Eve. Some areas of heavy snow will be in the southwestern portion of Colorado, with southerly flow on the San Juans. There should be varying amounts in the rest of the mountains. The Plains/cities will have a more challenging forecast for snow amounts throughout the entire 24-hour period on Christmas Eve. The models will try to figure out the snowfall rates and maybe try to decide if the temperature will be below freezing, or something helpful like that.

this ridge is 99th percentile

constant lake-effect snow band onshore, with little offshore

Here's something kind of neat. This storm's top analog for this evening's charts is 1/1/1987, also an El Nino winter. Would've been a washout for maybe New Years eve celebrations like it was a washout for Florida this morning

there we go we have a category 3 non-surface wind non-hurricane, but impressive nonetheless. I wonder if the NWS wind warnings for such areas as Rhode Island will be too low with values of 60mph mentioned. Edit: the latest HRRR has around 60kt for parts of New England, max gusts, and that is over 60mph, but also, probably overdone a bit.

what is 103 knots on the Saffir-Simpson scale (which doesn't apply)? I forgot.

Now that's what you all filling the radar scope with rain, and with 56mph wind offshore

yeah, no cold air mass to really work with. No cold air mass to power up that ever-elusive "cold conveyor belt," one of my favorite terms.

Sure, rain.

this is neat.

basically three areas of low pressure are going to combine

yeah with a million severe weather reports, 2 years ago today! Ouch! Up to 58 degrees here, with dew point of 28, not too much wind. I am starting to believe I'm back in Colorado with wintertime warm days. It's a blue sky with some cirrus clouds, much like a lot of ridge-days in Colorado. I'm walking outside, thinking I'll see a lenticular cloud over Longmont or something, then I remember I'm not there. Thanks, Mr. El Nino! to commemorate our really nice day--

More of the upcoming El Nino

this rain and snow is starting to resemble ... something from EL NINO? WHAT?

Moderate snow at Colorado Springs, moderate to heavy snow at Pueblo for a while