Chinook

Looking back 18 years in the past, to a deadly, historic storm of May 3, 1999. Loop of this radar is at US Tornadoes twitter feed.

Tornadoes seem to hate Oklahoma (again) this season. Back in 2014, a grand total of 13 tornadoes it Oklahoma through the whole calendar year, i.e. much below normal for that state. tornadoes haven't come much north of I-70 in April

I got that exact same error at about 5:00 (6:00 central). Just reload it in 5 minutes or something.

For Friday afternoon, the 00z GFS has fairly significant winds from 925mb - 700mb, leading to SRH values over 450 m2/s2 north of Fort Worth. This may be the main (remaining) reason to consider a higher tornado potential. And the GFS may be too high with the shear there. The NAM has much lower SRH, like 150 m2/s2. The 00z NAM (12km and 3km) have very cool air in Oklahoma, owing to high amounts of morning rainfall. I think it's still possible there could be something like an enhanced hail/wind outlook for North Texas and the Red River.

possible tornado near Woodward, OK, which was, I guess yesterday's storm chaser target. Or something like that.

Possible tornado near Dawson, Nebraska. Pretty good velocities seen by KTWX radar there.

Sometimes you just get 3000 J/kg of CAPE near a dryline and then something awesome happens, when 0-6km shear is a little better than previously thought. Yesterday, I was thinking, "Friday is going to be one of those oops days where there's a marginal risk on the day-2 and then it'll turn out that some chaser catches some cool brief tornado." But I didn't know where. And I didn't know it would be -that- interesting or -that- wide. And I'm not out in Kansas driving around for this stuff. Here is a HRRR sounding just south of the storm at 00z. The SRH increased quickly (I believe) near the storm. Hope this helps. Were the 1.5km winds really -that- high?

now there's rotation over the exact same area as previous tornado report(s). The NWS does not have a tornado warning for this.

I might have to go to the NCDC radar archive after this storm is over, so I can see it all on my GRLevel3 screen. Were these tornadoes known to have tracked over many farm structures?

I just started looking at radar, and I can only grab data that is less than 1 hour old. Did the storm cycle, and produce a 2nd tornado southwest of the original? Not sure. Pretty incredible radar images.

NWS San Antonio radar has detected some bats (as well as KGRK radar)

possible tornado near Garrison, MO

The 00z has 42 degrees in Toledo with over 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE. That could be a pretty nasty situation with cold temps, thunder, rain, small hail.

The SPC has a day-3 Enhanced outlook for Abilene TX to near Lubbock and Midland-Odessa. The NAM and GFS show that dew points will be in the 60-65F range with 500mb winds around 45-50 kt in advance of an upper level trough.

The 12z NSSL-WRF is quite vigorous in predicting higher updraft helicity tracks into NW Louisiana this evening at 02z to 04z.

Dodge City radar is down due to maintenance concerns. A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued near Dodge City. Murphy's Law for Weather Radar: If something can go wrong, it will go wrong as severe thunderstorms are about to develop.

The SPC has a slight risk for the central area of Nebraska down to near Midland/Odessa Texas today. 0-6 km shear should be at least 50 kt, as 500mb winds are at least 50kt. Shear may even up to 65 kt in some instances for storms that develop today. Medium values of LCL and storm-relative helicity may limit tornado potential.

kind of a messy storm mode- and tornado reported at Hickman KY

The area near Butterfield MO looks stronger on rotation. Yep, a lot happening in SE Missouri, and Paducah's radar is kind of far away from it to see the rotation.

That area near Purdy MO has had some distinguishable rotation on SRV1, right near that funnel cloud sighting by a spotter. Perhaps this one could develop a tornado.

The NAM has 65-66 degree dew points into SE Oklahoma Monday. My guess is that the SPC will issue a slight risk on Monday. Until a couple of days ago, the GFS runs had basically no CAPE for Monday. But now I think a localized hail/wind threat is possible.

SPC has an outlook (15%) for Day-4 Arkansas, Day-5, AL/MS/TN. The GFS has over 1000 J/kg of CAPE at 12z on Wednesday, in Arkansas. Synoptic details will probably change a lot, but that's a lot of CAPE for 12z in the winter.

Thrall, TX

I have not heard of any damage report, but here is the warning - THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... * UNTIL 1115 PM CST * AT 1038 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER SAN ANTONIO INT AP, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

I figured this might be relevant for anybody interested in Houston's heavy rain.