Chinook

There is a tornado warned storm east of Lacrosse, WI. It spun up out of a blob-like multicell cluster. Tomorrow: models have some impressive supercell and tornado indices out ahead of a potential squall line in Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Severe thunderstorm warning for SE Wisconsin. Most areas in the squall line have had winds of 40-50mph so far.

Midnight- these high-reflectivity storms in SW Iowa must be dumping rain and hail. I bet the lightning is impressive, considering that lightning is so easy to see at nighttime.

Tornado at Charleston! Tornadoes reported near RLX radar and about 3-4 miles SE of Charleston. This area has some steep hills on either side of the Kanawha River.

Some of the convection-allowing models show heavier storms in Cincinnati and Columbus tomorrow. The Ohio Valley area should have over 40 kt winds at 500mb, and convection should develop in some areas in OH and KY.

SPC is continuing with the 15% wind and 15% hail over a broad region of the Midwest, as well as some 2% tornado areas. It is almost identical to the previous 17z outlook (Day 2).

There is a lot of model agreement on a fast-moving squall line continuing overnight, moving into northern Missouri and western Illinois in the mid-day hours, 16z to 18z. Models have varying solutions after 20z but the squall line may make it into Indiana. I am wondering if things will work out to have a lot of wind reports in the hours before noon CDT. This is the HRRR model for 14z. Surely this would be quite unusual to have have so many 70dBz storm cores at 14z.

Here is a map of the storm reports, up to 647pm eastern. There is one report of 3 waterspouts. Obviously this is a notable severe weather day for this area.

12 tornadoes today, widely scattered across the country. The tornado reported in Texas didn't look like it was from a mesocyclone. edit; another confirmed tornado in Indiana

Another possible tornado in Ohio (SE of Mansfield)

Oh, you mean like this St. Louis Cardinals game that got delayed?

Some 55-60 dBz severe-warned storms near Wyandotte, MI. I wonder if we will get a report from Michsnowfreak on this.

Based on storm relative velocity, I think rotation was weak-moderate north of Leland (south of Shabbona) 11:44 AM.

There is a confirmed tornado near Lubbock. The radar images have looked even more impressive after the tornado was reported

Several storm reports today in KY/OH, including one tornado

March 1-16, 2019: 92 confirmed tornadoes (source, Wikipedia) March 2018: 55 confirmed tornadoes. We may be on pace to get over 120 confirmed tornadoes this month, as opposed to 55 in March last year. According to my calculations, the 2010-2018 average (not including hyper-active 2011) is 80.2 tornadoes.

Possible tornado at Toone, Tennessee, 60 mi east of Memphis

Several tornado warnings today. As mentioned before, there have been 2 tornado reports near Rienzi and Burnsville MS. Now this may be a tornado in one of the larger towns, Columbus. One tornado report at Artesia.

33dBz and 44mph peak wind gusts for essentially blizzard conditions at Cleveland lakefront area - otherwise, fairly windy (10 mph - 30mph) inland, some areas of 33 dBz on radar.

I love a good cloud pattern

This potential storm system is now getting into the WPC 72-hr snow forecast

Bright-banding on this radar image makes the snow look super-heavy, as opposed to just sort of heavy. Congrats on 5" of snow in the Oklahoma City vicinity. I hope the freezing rain didn't affect any of you negatively.

I drove from Akron to Toledo on Saturday, and I saw snow on the ground to about Sandusky. I think some instability snow existed in the general area.

If the models make a small mistake with the low-level temps, this snow north of OKC turns to ice or rain. The low-level profile here from the GFS is good for heavy snow, it's just so close to 0*C up to 700mb. The 500mb heights are so high, that the 1000-500mb critical thickness line is in Kansas, about 10 miles north of Wichita. We have a long time before this is a short-range forecast, so the models will obviously take some time to resolve the exact rain/snow line (or freezing rain/sleet profile, if that exists.)

If anybody wants to *fantasize* for Oklahoma based on 1988, check out this Jan 4th-7th 1988 storm total plot! I think I see an 18" contour in there.