Maestrobjwa

So we're essentially facing the same setup as last year? (correct me if I'm oversimplifying). If so...wouldn't that make the winter forecast easier, since you could just go by last year, and go from there? Both weak ninos...the Hadley cell thing you mentioned: would it stand to reason the process will pretty much go the same way? (of course I'd like better than last year, but...if we're dealing with this "not coupling to the atmosphere" again...I won't put my expectations past last year)

Indeed...(what's going on in your forum? Lol Been lurking back in there to see any winter discussion, but haven't seen any for like a week!)

Hey, as soon as the Nats broke their glass ceiling known as the divisional round...I've been pickin' them to win the whole thing! That and the fact that the last four years...teams--across all sports--that have either never won championships, or haven't won in decades...have been winning them! (I mean for crying out loud...the Caps finally did it, lol) So I would bet the table if I were a gambler!

I blame all the conflicting signals giving long range forecasters a case of the we-don't-knows...

Maybe the safest prediction is, well...for things to be like they were last year? Lol (maybe with even a little less?)

Anything above 20 is usually my mark...I call that good. 30 is what I call great...and 40+ is awesome!

Well that looks ominous...(and someone commented that such may signal "trough in the west and ridge in the east" (again)...Oof. Just why...If it is like last year, maybe we can still squeeze out our average...(Hey, at least it wouldn't be just us getting screwed...the whole northeast would be too, right? Lol Overall, I'm als)o wondering if we can pull off a nino for a third year in a row next year (2020-21)...or do things go back to nina? (a nina would be tough because then we may not see above average snow for another couple years depending on the strength!)

Dang...so what would this be? Almost ten years since a -NAO in the winter? (I remember the discussion about it possibly being on a decadal cycle or something like that) Smh And if the pac is gonna be less reliable overall because of climate...what else can we rely on?

Do ya think this means that, going forward...we may be less likely to be able to score in weak nino/neutral winters than in decades past? (with all the talk about the issue in the pac...I'm wondering if that means the neutral weak nino winters are bound to look more like last year, and that we'd only be able to score in moderate/strong ninos? Oof...we'd see fewer snowy years if we always had to wait for those to come around, lol)

I've heard others mention this "lag" effect as well...I've been wondering if any NAO benefits from this minimum would come this winter or...if we would have to wait fot the following one (and how long would this "lag" be? Or would the low solar of last year now influence this year? Eh, I'm confused about this...lol)

HM seems to think the Modoki is real this time as well:

HM also seems to think the Modoki could be real this time: http://Anthony Masiello (@antmasiello) Tweeted: modoki https://t.co/9WcA03uHhe https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1181381284276441097?s=17

And as I asked in the Twitter thread...is the snow cover even a legit factor that influences us? Feels like it's been bandied about the last few years...but to little result, lol

Not sure how much you can count 1941/42...The only reason for those 21 inches is because of that highly anomalous Palm Sunday blizzard. Don't want to have to rely on a redux of that! (and 1930/31...to have that tiny amount of snow to only get 10 in march doesn't seem worth the wait) So overall...that would be a recipe for mediocrity...("very backloaded" is tough to bet on...let's hope that's not the case!)

Admittedly...I'm a visitor to this forum and actually live in the Mid-ATL (but during winter "preseason", I kinda mill around the other EC forums since the discussion is more generally applicable, lol)--so not as familiar with sne climo! I had assumed that since nor'easters "crawl" up the coast, I thought the prospect of having more fast flow in the future meant things just kinda slip by (but I am a novice, so feel free to correct me)

And getting back to this...I have to wonder whether this means nor'easters would eventually go extinct? (Man, I hope not). I mean...does fast flow mean no coastal? (I may be oversimplifying this)

Well shoot...we're gonna have to deal with the fast flow crap again? Kinda helped to screw up the winter on the east coast in general (with just mild to middling events at best). The heck has been causing this "fast flow"?

A bit of weenieism here, but...here it is anyway (interestingly enough, the only below average years on this chart were la nina years--naturally, lol)

Well shoot...I wanted us to maintain our spot for the second driest September! Rain could've waited one more day?

Not the most logical approach...man, have you studied our history? Like going all the way back? Mid-Jan thru late Feb are the time the winter is more likely judged (and btw...if you insist on setting a "deadline" for having an event on the horizon...ya may want to extend that to at least January 15th. Remember that we don't usually get warning level events between Christmas and the second week of January, lol)

But wait...then how do we know what kind of ENSO we're in? (And are we reaching a point where we can't rely on history/analogs as much? And if we can't...how do ya make predictions? I'm particularly thinking about last year and how a lot of people got it wrong...partly because a weak El Niño was showing yet didn't behave like one. Are we entering uncharted weather territory overall due to the changing climate? If so...woe to the folks trying to make accurate predictions, lol

Could you elaborate a bit more on what the IOD actually is? (and what we need it to do? Lol)

Now, the only time that concept seemed to work...was the Super El Ninos of 1965-66, 1982-83, and 2015-16...All of those had very warm (like upper 60s to mid 70s) Christmases that were followed by blizzards less than a month later, lol Otherwise...nah!

Actually the Sandy reference was just in response to my comment about hurricanes bending west, lol

Ah so Sandy actually did bend far enough to actually make landfall there? (I'm in the mid-atl but I think it was just north of me)