Maestrobjwa

But that would be kinda atypical for a nina, no?

In my amateur opinion...I wouldn't get excited about any winter before it happens--especially in this current cycle of underperformance we've been in with this -PDO. Just keep expectations neutral...it is a nina so you know the potential of those is limited even in better conditions anyway.

Sounds like a very easy, canonical call!

Wut. Man it's too hard to get a Nino it takes forever! Or does a -PDO regime naturally produce more ninas?

That is a beautiful shot--especially the bottom image with the stars. Wow Very inspiring!

Yeah I mean I'm a snow miser like a lot of folks here. I want snow and plenty of it! Why he won't simply admit to being a heat miser when it's so blatantly obvious is beyond me--all our biases are loud and clear

How do I get that map from 2018 through now? That's the time period I really wanna see.

I must be misrembering then. I just know southern half has done better than the northern half of our sub since Dec 2018.. It's not one season but multiple ones since then. Precip boundary has been consistently south of here, hasn't it? NoVa has done better as well...but I could be wrong.

South definitely got more that year. Remember the TX freeze and the snow that came with it?

Oh no it wasn't just one. I'd love to look at the year by year for that. Wouldn't those averages be skewed by the mediocre years? And It's been several times in different areas. I can think of at least 6 years of the last 10 where places south got more. NC in Dec 2018, TX in February 2021, Snow in NO last year. 2019 southern MD getting more from that storm, and again last year--snow events in Alabama! Beach blizzard in...2018 I THINK. What I'm saying is the years that haven't been complete ratters, the south seems to be getting more. And you'd think it would happen less but the amounts have been consistently higher south of Baltimore since 2018 aside from years everybody failed.

Always. I would like the coulds around here to cooperate just one dang time.

And here's the part that defies common sense. So if this is the climate, you would think you WOULDN'T see snow and cold south of here as much...and yet over the last 7-8 years places south of Baltimore, and then places WAY south...have seen more snow. Like you would think that boundary shifting north=warmer and less snow south. You'd think you wouldn't see Texas freezing in 2021, onorthern. AL snowing last year, or again, Southern part of the forum having more snow than the northern. The whole thing is counterintuitive.

If that streak is gonna break I guess we can't count on it breaking in a la nina. Even dang Atlanta got flurries before we did. It baffles me to no end how the supposed boundary is inching "north" yet places just south--or WAY south--of here have seen more snow than we have over the last 8 years. Just on a commonsense level that makes zero sense. You'd think warmer would mean that wouldn't happen as much and yet here we are!

Hey bruh you gettin' too close to Baltimore--back it up! Keep that shield within a 20 mile radius please (or maybe you moving away from the Hertford Zone will reverse the trend )

It must be an extra good day when your perspective is sunnier than mine, lol I'm just tired of seeing people in the south get snow and remaining in the screw zone in my area. It's gotta break one of these days

Snow flurries in Atlanta today It's just flurries but given the SOB (south of Baltimore) storm track that has persisted for most of the decade, it's still annoying nonetheless.

This is exactly why my question was covered in skepticism. These days I mostly ignore strat talk because it's failed so often over the last decade...and the one time it really worked the effects of it were too late for us down herea (February 2018 with effects in March 2018). We did get some first day of Spring snow though so that was kinda funny!

I feel like this "south of Baltimore" storm track of the 8 years favors you more than most of us here, lol I still wanna know why it has been like this but most have said it's kinda random...but how does it repeat that long without a cause?

Now with these SSWs...like, how difficult are they to forecast even a week out? And if they do happen are we able to see it in real time? I ask because it feels like there have been a lot of wild goose chases over the last decade or so!

I'd love to have a new storm track one of the years. The one of the last decade sucks...not even "higher amounts north and west of the city" exists anymore! I find the fact that there is no clear cause rather annoying, lol

Yes it was (and to have that on a snow fat was even better!) That was absolutely insane--remember when we all thought Marlon Brown was gonna be a breakout after that? Lol But that was the craziest 2 mins of all time! And the memory is even sweeter knowing that snow kicked off an epic wall-to-wall winter

Did you mean you would not expect a very cold December, then?

It really says a lot, smh

It really is. Is he out for good now?

I got a real easy approach to tracking this year: If a model shows something that hasn't happened in 10 years...assume it's wrong and toss it