Maestrobjwa

Yeah of it doesn't cave tonight and other models don't start caving to it, then the GFS is in even worse shape than ever, lol

Wait, who? Lol

Let me shut up, lol

RGEM--small version of the CMC basically

And the thing is it's not even "the elephant" now...we got the cold but it always feels like there's 50,000 bad variations that can happen. Like random crap...stuff just finds a way to fall apart and I just don't get it.

Maaaan you ain't lying. I think I'm reaching that point today. It's like everything gets more complicated, can barely keep up with what "trend" we need to look for, all the "we need this to do that but not to fast, or slow, or north, or south...oh now here's another fail scenario"....bruh I'm tired. That's why any prospect of tracking a storm for next weekend just makes me like ugghhh I wanna just turn it all off and wait till next Friday, lol Again...TIRED Ninja'd by @SnowenOutThere on that sentence, lol

Dang. I mean even BWI recorded 13" for the Baltimore record!

Ohhh it did once...when NC got that blizzard in Dec 2018...oof. I remember that lobe up there trending stronger and stronger, lol

So this was just having random bad luck with the timing of that?

Alright so tell me this...in the overall setup what is the problem? Not having any blocking so the HP doesn't stay in place? I woulda thought...sw off of Baja, wall of moisture coming right at us with deep cold in place would be simple. But why all these complications?

I am with you on that. I have suffered from chronic fatigue the last 12 years and the extra energy you need to pound through sleet is annoying as heck. May try to shovel while it's still powdery, lol

Well they aren't dealing with the same complications we are though, are they?

Why does sleet make into daily snowfall measurements, anyway? I mean it's literally not snow, lol

Yeah probably. Can't imagine anybody is gonna be able to do much of anything Monday morning, lol

Good point...yeah the arctic plunge part of this does add more to the equation

Depends on where you are. I'd imagine it'll be at most a 4 day week...and decreasing the further n & w you get, lol

And it should've been simple...Finally having unmissable precip just to have other random ns nina crap potentially mess it up to the point where we see snow totals getting cut back and back and who knows how much more over the next 48 hours. I haven't had a warning level snow in 10 years nor have I hit double digits since that time. I would like crap to go right just ONCE. If I can get 6-10" I'm good. But it just feels like that's in jeopardy. 2007 (an analog for this storm) was supposed to be a snowstorm but ended up all sleet unexpectedly. If that happens and I get stuck with 4-5" snow with hard-to-shovel sleetn I'll still not have had one in 10 years. (And yes I can dream up worse case scenarios with the best of them, lol)

Listen I wasn't even looking for two feet. But I sure as heck wanted to least try to make a run at double digits for the first time--it sucks because you'd think a simple SS wave coming right at us would deliver...but then we get unlucky with a NS complication, and you wonder if it continues to get trimmed back over the next 48 hours.

Yeah because just 36 hours ago it was looking more like 8-12" for the metros and now we're down to 5-8"...and seeing unfavorable trends with the low position and such. So many times we get closer and stuff gets lower and lower. Been burned many times the last 10 years

Yeah that's not good...man I just don't wanna lose a warning level snowfall with this at the last minute. 6-10" bare minimum

NAMped?

Definite improvement over 18z!!! Ha...funny how we're calling a foot of snow a "thump", lol

It's not you, man. That's how he is--like @nw baltimore wxsaid just put him on ignore. Not worth the brain space--you are doing a fantastic job!

Yeah even to my layman ears that doesn't sound right...lends credence to the possibility that it's overamped

Oh my goodness. Hmm!