Maestrobjwa

First time all week it's had a friendlier run, lol

Okay so here we are at what...48 hrs? Are there any signs of a cave so far?

I would ask if that's what we want...but what we want/don't want has changed so many times or had so many caveats I lost count, lol

How well was that one modeled a day or two before? Was the amount of sleet a surprise?

And to tell ya the truth, even as we learn to control them on here, it would not surprise me if even the most measured posters on here still have them silently from time to time--it's a part of our syndrome, lol

Jeb....what did you do????

Everything's odd 252 hrs out

Yep

From what a couple others have said it makes sense...very subtle changes but they're there. 6z and 12z will certainly be telling!

That would be awesome!

So safe to say if we a similar cave at 6z then it's on it's way, lol Goodness gracious this model

Yeah I mean I guess if we see those features strengthen/weaken again at 6z then perhaps it is a trend. But hard to tell that right now

Wow...if it caves it will be the most wrong the GFS has ever been on a storm we're tracking, lol I mean we're at 72 hrs and no change! I mean it HAS to happen at 12z tomorrow if it's gonna happen, right?

How so? NS is busier in ninas, right? So that means disruptions are more likely...right?

Lol Not quite what I mean. If you track a storm in a nina, ya gotta lower your expectations even more because nina crap is more likely to get in the way and mess it up. I mean look where we are right now...

What I'm saying is when trying to track a storm in a nina and you're 72 hours out...the complications that are most likely getting in the way are always the same: NS disruptions because it's simply too busy in ninas. What we're seeing now is no different: Too much phasing, too little...this GL low got in the way, this ns feature interfered at the wrong time, and on and on. I'd bet if we had this same slug of stj moisture coming right at us in a Niño with cold in place, it would be nice and simple. That's why I feel like enso state does play a role in what we see when we track a storm like this.

Don't chase a coastal in a nina if you value your mental health, lol

So the expected totals for this thing can still go down, then...

Unless is pulls off a massive coup, it's performance with this storm has just damaged it's credibility even more. Who can trust it with anything?

I don't understand the fun with sleet, lol (other than it being a pack preserver)

And BWI? (It would be great if folks could include that in pbp )

Not losing the floor (6-10") is the goal here...

Interesting good or interesting bad? Lol

You played out my intrusive thought that I resisted to do that...thank you, lolol

That they do. However the GFS has a different track with the primary altogether...so it being colder kinda lines up with that track.