Maestrobjwa

I guess they're gonna wanna tar and feather Sirriani now? Lol

And the thing is there doesn't seem to be a reason! I mean it hasn't been warmth that's been the culprit...it's just the precip slamming on the brakes from Baltimore north. And I have yet to hear a satisfactory answer as to why that has happened more frequently than I can remember. It can't just be "bad luck", can it? I have problems accepting that, lol because it's like something in the atmosphere is doing it. I never remember being fringed south as many times as I have been over the last decade. This is why even if the fantasy runs for an overrunning potential turn out to have legs...I'm worried about it not reaching north enough to avoid the fringe. But maybe with enough juice we can finally get a good hit.

The problem is most of the applicable analogs the last several years have been negative ones! So the analogs did their job...it's just we haven't had many good ones pop up

Alright Cape if this doesn't work it's gonna have to be changed to the Cod storm...I don't like cod

I'd love to have a simple path. But ngl...until I finally get a flush hit here, I'm always gonna be worried about a miss south. Been so long since we just got a flush, not-too-suppressed hit.

Ah dang it, lol So eait that means we can't talk about February either...

I'm gonna play a little semantics here and say talking about 2027 technically is long range discussion and thus on topic

Yeah but if this is yet another messy interaction thing then that doesn't seem to be a battle we wanna fight again...

Yes CMC

Something told me it may be trouble when the Euro and Cmc wanted nothing to do with it

Most of the time, whenever we start saying "we're gonna need ____ to do _____" we're already losing, lol

Speaking of the second event...it seems the GFS is the only one enthused about it. I mean the 12z Euro seemed to attempt something but it wasn't close. Would like to see some more support!

Yeah we need to stop calling this a hobby fr...most of us couldn't walk away if we tried, lol We could shut off all weather sites and we're still gonna wanna know when it’s gonna snow!

Shoot...since storm 1 seems to have limited moisture potential, if it can't get us at least a modest 3-6", I'd rather that fizzle to leave room for storm 2, tbh

Yeah I understand that...but what he was saying about the issue of moisture though...it seems like guidance is all dry despite improving at H5.

A met in my sub had an idea:

Hm...so are we kinda looking at a ceiling of the moisture potential with this one in general? And secondly...how unusual is this?

But if it follows other guidance...watch it be dry at the surface, lol

Sounds like this is a good study for ya

Came back to find this, hahaha

Nothing is ever guaranteed. I'm just saying I don't know if it'll be the usual Nina February monster SE ridge--because with that you have ZERO chance. Better to have A chance

A couple weeks ago I woulda spit at that idea. But this time around I'm wondering if we have a chance with the MJO in a favorable phase as well as a -AO...

Now see...I get storm 1 failing--it's messy. But c'mon man I hope we can get something off off storm 2. If we get zilch from both, that will be annoying even with lowered expectations!

Right--very few big hits come outside of the weekend...I don't know why--it just doesn't seem to work, lol

I find that our beloved forum is deaf to these warnings despite them being absolutely spot on (I guess it's not wanting to acknowledge fail probability when the models seem to "lock in"). We need to view this like it's still in fantasy range! I feel like wave 2 would be simpler...