Maestrobjwa

No way I could buy that those two waves don't destroy each other or do something else dumb like snow in the south, lol

It's more about the general pattern than discreet threats at that range. 11-15 days is a good range for pattern stuff. For example, mid January was kinda the benchmark for the pattern change, and...despite the potential misses, you can see the chsnge happening. I won't attempt to explain as I couldn't; but layman eyes see stuff flowing differently on the models

I'm looking more at the pattern change/flow there....as someone else stated earlier maybe we can see how we do with more west-east as opposed to all the waves diving in.

GFS completely cuts off the SS interaction...mercy.

But it was never anything like the gfs though.

Icon looks like it has a lottle something with the CAPE storm...although the way the precip oriented hurt my feelings

I don't either. And to tell you the truth...the last two years have shown it can still be cold enough to snow. Our fails haven't been because it's too warm (or perhaps that's selective memory, lol). I mean even the threat this week isn't at risk of failing because it's too warm...just little moisture!

Exactly. DC having better snow than Baltimore north since 2019 makes no sense

But that doesn't explain the precip problems though...how is it that south of Baltimore is doing better when it has been cold enough to snow? I don't get the cut-off that has happened here...that ain't because of temperature is it?

I guess they're gonna wanna tar and feather Sirriani now? Lol

And the thing is there doesn't seem to be a reason! I mean it hasn't been warmth that's been the culprit...it's just the precip slamming on the brakes from Baltimore north. And I have yet to hear a satisfactory answer as to why that has happened more frequently than I can remember. It can't just be "bad luck", can it? I have problems accepting that, lol because it's like something in the atmosphere is doing it. I never remember being fringed south as many times as I have been over the last decade. This is why even if the fantasy runs for an overrunning potential turn out to have legs...I'm worried about it not reaching north enough to avoid the fringe. But maybe with enough juice we can finally get a good hit.

The problem is most of the applicable analogs the last several years have been negative ones! So the analogs did their job...it's just we haven't had many good ones pop up

Alright Cape if this doesn't work it's gonna have to be changed to the Cod storm...I don't like cod

I'd love to have a simple path. But ngl...until I finally get a flush hit here, I'm always gonna be worried about a miss south. Been so long since we just got a flush, not-too-suppressed hit.

Ah dang it, lol So eait that means we can't talk about February either...

I'm gonna play a little semantics here and say talking about 2027 technically is long range discussion and thus on topic

Yeah but if this is yet another messy interaction thing then that doesn't seem to be a battle we wanna fight again...

Yes CMC

Something told me it may be trouble when the Euro and Cmc wanted nothing to do with it

Most of the time, whenever we start saying "we're gonna need ____ to do _____" we're already losing, lol

Speaking of the second event...it seems the GFS is the only one enthused about it. I mean the 12z Euro seemed to attempt something but it wasn't close. Would like to see some more support!

Yeah we need to stop calling this a hobby fr...most of us couldn't walk away if we tried, lol We could shut off all weather sites and we're still gonna wanna know when it’s gonna snow!

Shoot...since storm 1 seems to have limited moisture potential, if it can't get us at least a modest 3-6", I'd rather that fizzle to leave room for storm 2, tbh

Yeah I understand that...but what he was saying about the issue of moisture though...it seems like guidance is all dry despite improving at H5.

A met in my sub had an idea: