Supernovice

I read clover can result from low nitrogen- just FYI, which if your lawn was sand not too long ago…maybe try a soil test first? Gunna do mine this year just to check.

This x1000. The economy is a complex system not unlike the climate. When people blame supply issues on lazy workers, longshoremen, federal unemployment benefits, China etc etc etc…it is quite literally exactly the same as blaming global warming for a heat wave. Sure it contributes at the margins but at a large scale it’s the interplay of a million different things that gives us that summer heat wave.

can't help but jump in here-- for personal account 4th quarter *not financial advice* XLF- Financials breaking out, 15% of that is Berkshire- if you believe in a cyclical recovery this is for you. Crypto- BTC above 46 is a buy...and I like crypto exposed banks- SVB? And I like commodities ex gold: Copper (bouncing off of support) and Oil (touching 7 yr highs) especially.

I'm not sure which drives more traffic here, dew talk or frost talk...we'll have to go to the judges on this one.

well the bad man with the air compressor stopped by yesterday- no more sprinklers for the season- seems early to me but whatever. lawn looks great- until i put a giant spiderweb/spiders on it- will try and take a pic later

ya just HATE to see it.

Hey guys- update- followed your advice...bought that green electric de-thatcher linked above- followed by fert/seed...things look fantastic. So now what's the plan for the spring? I wanna use the crab grass stuff scott talked about...do i do a spring dethatching or anything? and i presume no seed if i use the crabgrass control.

Short answer Yes- by the maximum 1 year increase allowed under law until they reach the market rate. Which for most is 25-30 yrs. Just googled 'flood insurance increase' and the first link is KATC- Louisiana. https://www.katc.com/news/covering-louisiana/most-louisiana-homeowners-can-expect-an-increase-in-flood-insurance

At the risk of beating a dead horse....this is the 1st year that unsubsidized flood insurance takes effect. Increases are limited to like I dunno $1,300 a year or something....but in 30 yrs there are going to be places that become unaffordable to many (assuming no further legislation).... So at least before it becomes uninhabitable my bet is that coastal areas gentrify at an exceptional rate. There is a certain segment of the population that has no problem paying $30k cash a yr for flood insurance... while the less fortunate get pushed inland.

Here you go, gotta create a free account to read it tho: https://www.ceres.org/resources/reports/financing-net-zero-economy-consequences-physical-climate-risk-banks

I love the smell of napalm in the morning.

Place your bets on who will be the first to disregard all stated caveats above, and lead with "Cat 5 landfall imminent in the S.E. U.S.".

Do you rent or own- if you rent -Can you spray it and then throw some caulking up there and seal that crack? If you own I'd call someone out there and see if they can find the nest- I wouldn't go poking around my walls without at least some idea of where i was looking. just me tho.

Correct-ish, Physical and financial…this is all encompassing, private equity, business loans, real estate- literally everything. But below is the breakout. The indirect impacts are the largest like supply chain disruption, lost productivity etc. I think this is about a lot more than weather. Gotta think this impacts our children’s lives tremendously.

Really interesting report I saw today- cliff notes: 28 of the largest U.S. financial institutions hold $2.2T in syndicated loan exposure. Impact of climate change could be 10% of that portfolio or $200-250B. Which wow- that is NOT priced in. Below is from the report.

No disagreement here— one would think someone is about to learn a hard lesson. I just haven’t seen it in the spreads outside of China CDS. I guess we’ll see. greater risk for China is doing nothing…I’m not sure they are keen on dealing with mass protests which will certainly occur if they don’t provide any liquidity or government cash. Seems like we are risk on today at least to start- but volatility works both ways so not unexpected.

In all seriousness— this correction was set in motion in June. Markets were extended…there wasn’t a pullback in the late spring- which I had predicted. September is a historically weak month for returns…I saw something like the week after sept option exp is negative 25 outta 29 times or something with the avg drawdown being 94 bps. what I’m saying is the smart money had been looking for some consolidation for some time, inst. money rebalancing into quarter end…and maybe a little liquidity event in China…that’s how you get here…I see choppiness through this week, and then we’re back on the escalator back up through year end.

Yes- but I’ll buy any stocks that you wanna sell at these levels tho.

appropriate:

Cranked the heat to 90 and had ourselves a nice final pool party for the season. Surprisingly warm in the sun today. Question is— past Wednesday does it continue?

Gas man came yesterday, so of course it'll be: pool temp: 85 air temp: 55 Shoulda closed her.

When are you guys doing fall fert and seed? Thinking this week...am I too early? What's up w/ that de-thatcher? I rented one from HD when I was trying to save my previous lawn- what a pain in the ass. That for fall use? Do you use it every yr?

- Thanks. I guess I'm really thinking about wrong...interesting...will be watching for more airline ground speed records incoming regardless.

Edit: Quoted the wrong post Tip--The question on my mind... as a fan of your Hadley cell observations etc for many yrs....do we see a snap-back mid/late Oct- snowbomb? The +2sd anomalies have to be offset somewhere/ at some point right? I know that's an oversimplification but?

5k for heater and install… I have two large propane tanks- those are free if you sign a contract with a gas co. Those are like $750 to refill. Usually do that twice, this yr 3 times. I’ve figured it heats mine (about 25k gallons) about two degrees per hour. I can’t recommend it enough tbh. This is my 2nd yr with it. My neighbor put in an electric same time as me and he has to keep it running thurs- sun for weekend activities which I would imagine gets pricey.