Supernovice

You want loyalty? Get a dog.

I have 2 kids under 4 and absolutely love working from home. My oldest- never saw him for the first year of his life. I was out the door before he got up, and home well after he went to bed. I changed jobs pre Covid to correct this but...now...the extra time at home is invaluable. Coming down for lunch, putting them down for a nap...just coming down to say hello. It has been a game changer.

I'm quite confident (+75%) that I will never return to a 5 day in office work week. For all of the reasons listed above both on the employee and employer side + forecasts putting the unemployment rate in a range where employers will have to offer flexibility to remain competitive. Which is where I'm at mentally- "oh you want me in 5 days a week regardless of what I have going on? Ok, I'll go work for someone else- Thanks!" I guess I'm fortunate to be in that position, but I would imagine many people are in a similar boat. Below is my fave WFH anecdote from the dimmest Goldman CEO of our lifetimes: Few things annoyed Solomon more last year than an encounter with a junior employee in the Hamptons. The Goldman Sachs boss has told lieutenants how the underling walked up at a restaurant, introduced himself and pointed to associates with him -- in the middle of a workday. The tale has become the CEO’s go-to anecdote when he vents about his mostly-empty offices: proof that remote work has run amok. Some who’ve heard the story note the apparent disconnect. The boss is perturbed by bumping into staff while he himself was spending extended summer weekends in the Hamptons at a luxe seaside rental. Solomon’s time there even made national news after he deejayed a concert where attendees flouted social-distancing guidelines, leaving New York state officials fuming

nice dude- can't wait for my fateful day

In non Covid related news...things are starting to get very tense in eastern Ukraine. Over a canal that pre-Russian invasion used to serve Crimea. Nary a word about it in western media. Our first water war, however tangentially, on the horizon- who’s the doomsayer now?

fear not- it is saved forever

Ok boomer. That was too easy. I’ll put you down as a ‘maybe’ for liars poker.

Gotta love that the people complaining about the media manipulating the population with negative news are the very same people predicting certain societal breakdowns in our lifetimes. Ironic much? Negativity sells, always has and always will- shocking development I know. Maybe as part of our all but certain dystopian future we don’t allow people born in say 1980 or before access to the internet. Boomers just can’t handle it. The people telling me as a young boy: don’t believe everything you read are the same people now saying you get Alzheimer’s from a vaccine, or that Trump is a Russian agent. Its like those people that throw around the word snowflake. You just know they are the most thin skinned people out there. It’s a tell...would love to play liars poker with some of you. Maybe at the next gtg, only if we all get our vaccine passports that the future Orwellian government will mandate of course.

Libertarians exercising their personal right to not get vaccinated. Libertarian business owners exercising their right to deny service based on vaccine status.

Haven’t logged in but my pre-market thoughts/ questions are below: 1) When banks take a hit it’s usually on something that is deemed safe but turns out isn’t. I.e. mortgage bonds (GFC) or an arb trade (LTCM). But TRS on single equity names....I mean everyone knows the risks or should- especially people paid to evaluate such things. Did ‘stocks only go up’ get ingested into the risk departments? Really don’t know. 2) what caused this.? These names were 800+% off the lows. There were some downgrades last week and share offerings in these names which put downward pressure. But turns out that 800% was pushed along by one leveraged buyer. After a long time of one way price action, sometimes it doesn’t take much to unravel. Also did the SLR exemption expiration play a role? Maybe. 3) finally...I can’t imagine running a leveraged book on single names using TRS. No idea how he managed to sleep. But imagine being the counterparty on these trades? Like wtf were they thinking? Now you own $20b+ of this shit as of 12/31/20. Oops.

Where is @N. OF PIKE when you need him? This is his dream scenario. Things could get messy here.

What looked like alpha was in retrospect leveraged beta. I know they aren’t the only ones. I’m firmly in the camp that this is no biggie...but there are people that want to see the system blow up. The easiest way to do that is through a liquidity crunch. Tonight and tomm would be when that would reveal itself, if it were going to happen at all (which it won’t- I hope).

For those that care about such things... the Asian opening tonight is the most exciting one in awhile given what took place on Friday. It will probably open with a whimper but for those that want to see things unravel- tonight/ Tomm has a chance to make some noise.

The Suez- so ya know... no big deal. I think it’s moving, but then heard it’s damaged and traffic still can’t pass. Oil up 5.5%

Bot wkey right before they halted for 12, and DSS because they will prob have some pr soon similar to what wkey released. Obviously happy so far but don’t plan on holding Wkey through the weekend, maybe not even overnight. NFT’s are a joke as far as I’m concerned but with this price action gotta at least mess around in the day trading account.

She’s underway and on the move- rejoice.

However rough your day today turns out to be, at least we’re not this helmsman. I think she’s still grounded.

Me thinks bonds r oversold here.

All within just the last 6 hrs. Just give it a rest man. The schtick is old, like so old.

Zero doses that’s correct, and that’s not weird at all given my demographic so...?

Mid thirties perfectly healthy...not sure what my vaccine status has to do with dealing in facts, and that’s all I was stating—facts. I get you’re vaccine hesitant and that’s a personal decision- no judgement here.

You haven’t checked the science? I’m absolutely shocked by that development. The science says vaccines produce a materially more robust immune response than natural infection.

technically speaking... this was a fantastic day, and still running AH's.

Underreported- given rate changes there will be a lot of rebalancing of institutional money at quarter end. Speaking from experience- I will be reducing eq exposure throughout this month. Just standard rebalancing, but we will not be alone. Will this impact markets...ehhh maybe a bit as we work through the month. Personally very bullish April and May and much less so as we approach the summer. I see vol persisting for the time being. For those w strong stomachs, some of the most loved sectors and individual stocks over the past 6-8 months, in my opinion are oversold. I’m a net buyer here for my personal account, tbh I bought all last week and got murdered, but this is a long game. $500k? depends on your horizon. 80-20 eq for anything over 10 yrs. I’d split that eq 60-40 us/ non- us. And then break it down further between small/ large cap. The 40 would then be split 25-15 developed/ emerging. All passive index’s, maybe a small active small cap allocation and a small active emerging position. On the FI side, any corporate bond fund would have to be active, any govt bond positions would be passive. All of this is hypothetical of course.

Based on my experience don’t bother. We can’t say anything because then the Covidiots start spewing even more nonsense and all Covid talk gets shut down. which actually is better than reading these posts...so maybe attack away?