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Everything posted by Supernovice

  1. The Suez- so ya know... no big deal. I think it’s moving, but then heard it’s damaged and traffic still can’t pass. Oil up 5.5%
  2. Bot wkey right before they halted for 12, and DSS because they will prob have some pr soon similar to what wkey released. Obviously happy so far but don’t plan on holding Wkey through the weekend, maybe not even overnight. NFT’s are a joke as far as I’m concerned but with this price action gotta at least mess around in the day trading account.
  3. She’s underway and on the move- rejoice.
  4. However rough your day today turns out to be, at least we’re not this helmsman. I think she’s still grounded.
  5. Me thinks bonds r oversold here.
  6. All within just the last 6 hrs. Just give it a rest man. The schtick is old, like so old.
  7. Zero doses that’s correct, and that’s not weird at all given my demographic so...?
  8. Mid thirties perfectly healthy...not sure what my vaccine status has to do with dealing in facts, and that’s all I was stating—facts. I get you’re vaccine hesitant and that’s a personal decision- no judgement here.
  9. You haven’t checked the science? I’m absolutely shocked by that development. The science says vaccines produce a materially more robust immune response than natural infection.
  10. technically speaking... this was a fantastic day, and still running AH's.
  11. Underreported- given rate changes there will be a lot of rebalancing of institutional money at quarter end. Speaking from experience- I will be reducing eq exposure throughout this month. Just standard rebalancing, but we will not be alone. Will this impact markets...ehhh maybe a bit as we work through the month. Personally very bullish April and May and much less so as we approach the summer. I see vol persisting for the time being. For those w strong stomachs, some of the most loved sectors and individual stocks over the past 6-8 months, in my opinion are oversold. I’m a net buyer here for my personal account, tbh I bought all last week and got murdered, but this is a long game. $500k? depends on your horizon. 80-20 eq for anything over 10 yrs. I’d split that eq 60-40 us/ non- us. And then break it down further between small/ large cap. The 40 would then be split 25-15 developed/ emerging. All passive index’s, maybe a small active small cap allocation and a small active emerging position. On the FI side, any corporate bond fund would have to be active, any govt bond positions would be passive. All of this is hypothetical of course.
  12. Based on my experience don’t bother. We can’t say anything because then the Covidiots start spewing even more nonsense and all Covid talk gets shut down. which actually is better than reading these posts...so maybe attack away?
  13. I do read what you write and respect your opinion. Which is why you’re like the only person I interact with on this board re: finance. My point is and has always been that just to say rates rise= stocks fall isn’t correct. We all know the economy is a complex system, but our primitive brains can’t handle that, so we all get into this mind trap of constructing a neat narrative to explain everything. Will rates rising have a negative impact on short term stock valuations- probably, but to what extent and for how long? What other factors are at play...what’s dollar strength look like, what about the prices of raw materials and commodities? Rates are but one small piece of much larger puzzle.
  14. I mean I guess if you’re talking specific stocks...maybe? But here goes- not my research but it’s money: From 1954-1960, the 10 year treasury yield went from 2.3% to 4.7%. In that time, the S&P 500 was up 207% in total (17.4% annualized). Then from 1971-1981, rates went vertical, rising from 6.2% to 13.7%. This period included sky-high inflation and the brutal 1973-1974 crash, but nominal returns were still pretty decent, at 113% in total (7.1% annual). From 1993-1994, rates shot up from 6.6% to 8.0%. The S&P 500 was still up nearly 12% in total despite some carnage in the bond market. At the tail-end of the dot-com bubble, rates rose from 5.5% in 1998 to 6.5% in 1999. Didn’t matter. Stocks were up more than 55% (although that was followed by a 50% crash beginning in early-2000). From 2003 through 2007, rates went from 3.3% to 5.1%. The S&P rose nearly 83% (12.8% annualized) before the onset of the 2008 crash. And the latest rising rate environment saw the 10 year go from 1.5% in 2012 to 3% by 2018. Even with the mini-bear market at the end of 2018, stocks were still up 131% in total.
  15. We don’t agree on much but the debate is always cordial. I would put forth that rising rates are ++ for stocks. For instance see this from 6 yrs ago: http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2015/03/fearful-of-rising-rates-stocks-have-you.html Also this is different from say 2018 when the curve was volatile on the short end, last week it was the long end...which to me signals economic optimism. Secondly, last week may have been exacerbated by CTA repositioning...the 2/5/10 yr butterfly trade moved 24 bps which is a true black swan event in that market- like literally a 1 in a billion year event if you calc it out. Down week, little flushing...I like the reset here.
  16. Oooo look it’s the resident door to door salesman/ armchair epidemiologist... If only we all could have had his great foresight.
  17. I know this is ghoulish but....hindsight being 20/20 it seems that constructing your utility grid so it’s completely walled off from the federal grid, because ya know... secessionists, may have a downside.
  18. What he did- being a registered broker and working for mass mutual, while posting stock picks on the internet is what the SEC is looking at. He prob will and should lose his license, and I wouldn’t be shocked if the CFA did something as well. The rules around this are very stringent. Historically I’ve had to upload my personal accounts to a company platform for real time monitoring, clear trades internally before executing, been barred from owning anything but index funds or combination of all of the above. These rules are taken very seriously by the SEC and any financial company’s HR dept. He’s basically untouchable from a hiring perspective- not that he cares anymore.
  19. Also the gradient within Tolland city limits was insane. A five inch gradient in one town, ALMOST unheard of. Can’t be expected to nail that.
  20. I think that’s going to be me...prob a foot here already- it has been incredible.
  21. Red jacket down in Dennis? I think it’s Dennis has a good one. It’s a par 3 course but in excellent shape and very challenging. Also a great jumping off point to play wherever you want on the cape. I did that for a few yrs w my dad...lessons in the morning, all you can play after that. Felt like I was on tour. sunday river is also great- love that course. Although getting up there is annoying. And I think you’re married to that course if you go up there, although others may know the bethel area better than I.
  22. Eye of the beholder I guess...85% against severe disease and 100% against death. Single dose. No cold storage. My opinion is that this is a great day for the less developed world in particular. If you told me a year ago we’d be in this spot re:vaccines I would have taken it and ran. Now back to your regularly scheduled programming.
  23. Those results from JnJ are about as good as one could expect. Great day for the world. In other news, today we go to the moon. Lol
  24. He was comparing you to DT- aka dick tolleris . Beyond that I dunno edit: wait is that DT’s actual name?- lol
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