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high risk

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Everything posted by high risk

  1. high risk
    Most guidance had the most widespread rain this morning. Certainly looks like an underperformer.
  2. high risk
    Yeah, consistent with what you noted in the mesoanalysis, the 00Z Dulles raob shows that the earlier convection really stabilized the atmosphere here. Surface-based instability is negligible, and the mid-level lapse rates are lousy. Perhaps some improvement advects in overnight, and I'm not ready to throw in the towel after one HRRR run goes to crap after several more interesting runs. That said, IF we do get an overnight round, I think it would likely be elevated and therefore non-severe. I won't discount some improvement in the low levels and a fast-moving convective system that is able to generate some wind, but I don't think that scenario is very likely.
  3. high risk
    Regarding the “failed” morning MCS, guidance overnight showed that the far southern flank might ignite after 8 or 9 am this morning in northern MD. A few showers are now indeed breaking out, so there is clearly at least some forcing. Model solutions vary between just isolated weak showers and actual robust storms, so I’m unsure how the next few hours will play out, but we clearly do have some sort of forcing mechanism.
  4. high risk
    Even if we lower the dew points, it's the lapse rates that are driving the huge instability. Some sort of remnant EML appears likely to advect into our area overnight Thursday - there is really good, continued model agreement this evening about that. (Toss the GFS/HiResW FV3 which are known to underdo lapse rates.) The impressive lapse rates will allow some sort of MCS to survive into our area early Friday and then enhance whatever severe threat exists Friday afternoon. I'm still not totally sold on a trigger (yeah, a leftover boundary from a morning MCS could help a lot), and we might have some downsloping subsidence to suppress convection, but the shear/instability profile would favor splitting supercells with a wind and very large hail threat if any storms can form. (The tornado shear profile shown in the forecast sounding above is not supported in this evening's guidance which generally shows more westerly surface winds.)
  5. high risk
    Strong signal across all global ensembles for a cooler than average Memorial Day weekend.
  6. high risk
    Any MCS early Saturday would likely be elevated and therefore unlikely to have any SVR threat. It’s just so difficult to get severe here outside of the period of peak heating.
  7. high risk
    The NAM is doing its usual thing with too high dewpoints, BUT it is forecasting very steep lapse rates for Friday which might be real and would certainly contribute to higher CAPE and a legit large hail threat. As noted, however, triggers look to be minimal right now, but a high-impact isolated cell or two still seems possible.
  8. high risk
    Friday is certainly interesting. To start, several models show some sort of early morning MCS. The NAM in particular has some steep lapse rates, which likely explains the signals for big hail. I'm not sure what the trigger would be for afternoon storms to form and take advantage of some positive factors, but it's definitely worth tracking.
  9. high risk
    The HRRR has shown this for several cycles, and the evening CAM suite continues the trend. That said, while they seems to be spot on in terms of location and timing, actual coverage so far appears to be less than progged.
  10. high risk
    I will admit that I don't trust it, but there was a pretty clear signal in the 12Z CAMs for heavy rain to break out on the east side of DC and over to the Eastern Shore during the mid evening hours.
  11. high risk
    Yeah, the CAMs this evening look more like the earlier globals with decent rains from the Bay to all points west. Still not as good of a consistent signal for the Eastern Shore, but it does seem like even those areas should eventually do at least ok (later Tuesday into Wednesday??).
  12. high risk
    Fri/Sat is definitely worth watching, but there is a lot of disagreement on whether we get decent height falls or if they're focused more north of here. Any modest height falls would probably bring a severe threat, given the good moisture in place and good wind fields.
  13. high risk
    People on the east side of the Potomac are going to truly hate the morning hi-res runs.
  14. high risk
    Notable speed-up in the overnight and morning guidance with the arrival of the rain: initial shower bands may arrive before the dinner hour on Monday.
  15. high risk
    Still a pretty good signal in the evening CAMs for at least scattered convection Tuesday afternoon for those mainly north of the DC Beltway
  16. high risk
    The problem is that the upper low now looks to cut off further west, so Sunday is probably now a warm day with convection that the GFS is likely not resolving well. That said, it could very well end as an event with winners and losers instead of everyone getting some love.
  17. high risk
    Really nice supercell in western Maryland this afternoon.
  18. high risk
    Looking great for a big soaking later in the weekend into at least early next week. Note that there is a separate thread for this event.
  19. high risk
    There is a bit of a signal for the highest amounts being north of here, but all 3 global ensemble means are 2"+ for most of this subforum, and 2 out of 3 have 2+" for the entire subforum. And it's spread out over multiple days instead of being some convective deluge that can't sink in. This looks a much-needed huge win for our region.
  20. high risk
    Full-blown, massive cave.
  21. high risk
    In particular, the GEFS made a huge move towards the other guidance.
  22. high risk
    Latest HRRR initializes it well and does try to bring it into Montgomery/Loudoun before weakening. It actually shows lapse rates increasing a bit, generating some elevated CAPE, so perhaps it *could* hold together further east than initially thought.
  23. high risk
    I'm calling it a night before waiting for the 00Z suite, but it's worth noting today that the Euro and AI-Euro both have the weekend trough cutting off and hanging around for a while and giving us a much-needed multi-day rain event. It seems to have some ensemble support. The GFS/GEFS, prior to the overnight runs, are very progressive with the trough and want nothing to do with the Euro idea.
  24. high risk
    The slightly slower solution ended up verifying, and we do have a MRGL along and east of I-95 for this afternoon. There is actually some good model agreement that a broken line of thunderstorms will form around 2pm very close to I-95 in Maryland and extend at least a bit south of DC on the Virginia side. Looks like there will be some instability, but deep layer shear looks slightly weaker than it did in earlier progs, so a MRGL seems to be the right call (but a few wind reports are certainly possible, especially further east).
  25. high risk
    Yeah, widespread heavy convection Friday night (as depicted on that one NAM Nest run) just doesn't seem likely, although there could be a few good downpours for some lucky areas. After that, I'm glad to see some ensemble agreement for a strong trough passage the following weekend, but I don't like seeing the prolonged signal for northwest flow after that.
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