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high risk

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Everything posted by high risk

  1. high risk
    The HRRR has been pretty consistent keeping the overnight activity north of the DC area, and storms are starting to fire now in northeastern WV. The shear tonight supports a tornado threat; it's just unclear whether the storms will be surface-based.
  2. high risk
    There will be no upgrades to the HRRR since it's slated for retirement.
  3. high risk
    That's mostly how I see it too. I'll disagree on round 1 being "weak" - the HRRR simulated reflectivities are fine; isolated SVR seems likely, but I question the TOR threat with the weaker low-level winds. Shear cranks up after dark, but we'll be fighting decreasing instability. To me, the biggest potential overlap between increasing shear and still-sufficient sfc-based instability will be northwest of the DC area.
  4. high risk
    Looking at the 00Z CAMs, I'd put the Monday TOR threat as an SPC 2% area instead of 5 for the local area due to weak low-level winds and limited storm coverage. The bigger TOR threat might be western MD and adjacent parts of WV/PA in the early evening. There are also some timing differences for Tuesday. HRRR would require that the SLGT area be extended back west of DC, but it seems like an outlier for now.
  5. high risk
    The 5% makes sense, given the southeasterly low-level winds progged by all guidance. What's keeping us from a higher threat is fairly weak surface wind speeds as well as lower speeds in the 900-700 mb level. If the low-level wind fields end up stronger, we would have more significant TOR potential.
  6. high risk
    I'm out of town tomorrow, so LOCK IT IN.
  7. high risk
    The previous dozen posts discussing the higher end potential for tomorrow aren't enough for you?
  8. high risk
    I'm still thinking SLGT for tomorrow for areas west and southwest of DC with the MRGL expanded into the DC-Baltimore corridor. Maybe we end up SLGT, but instability looks very limited. There might be more of a flash flood threat, although the dry week we just had might preclude that. I'm fully expecting a Day 2 ENH for Monday. I think that there is enough in the CAMs to pull the trigger.
  9. high risk
    It's partially driven by huge CAPE numbers which are being caused by the usual NAM bias of having dew points that are too high. That said, the shear will be good, and it will still be a very volatile environment on Monday.
  10. high risk
    Sunday is challenged by very limited instability. But if we can get more unstable than currently progged, any storm that interacts with the boundary to the southwest could spin for a bit. I like the chances of evening convection moving southwest to northeast, but we have work to do to have it be severe.
  11. high risk
    Looking at the morning CAMs, looks good for widespread Sunday evening convection. Low-level shear is interesting near the warm front, so the potential is there for a few spin-ups, but lack of instability and lack of discrete cells should temper the threat (maybe higher south and west of DC). Monday has good potential to be an ENH day.
  12. high risk
    Yes, but they usually don't throw those terms around beyond day 2. Their usage of that wording reflects that the progged shear and especially the low-level shear Monday have been progged to be seasonably strong. I personally don't like them discussing tornado threats at this range, but I do understand what they're seeing.
  13. high risk
    I haven't been a big fan of today's potential, because while there is some decent flow in the upper levels, the shear through the majority of the cloud layer sucks. That said, as others have pointed out, there is modest CAPE and decent downdraft CAPE, so there is *some* potential. IF the HRRR idea of an organized line with a coldpool is correct, the threat might be a bit higher than thought:
  14. high risk
    Finally seem to be getting consensus now on a single line impacting much of the area, or at least from Alexandria or so northward. Looks like an early show, with the line initiating near the I-81 corridor by late morning and rolling into the DC metro area sometime between 1 and 3pm. The lack of lead convection increases the severe threat, and there is probably enough deep layer shear to justify the SLGT risk, although the lack of shear in the sfc-4 km depth might temper the threat a bit. With only one round of convection, and it progged to be progressive, the flash flood threat is a bit lower than initially thought. That said, 2" PW values will create torrential downpours, and the areas that are soggy from the past few days will likely have problems.
  15. high risk
    I completely understand the lack of trust in the guidance, given the past few days, but the HRRR wants to light up the DC-Baltimore corridor between 5PM and 10PM in the last two cycles.
  16. high risk
    As you and I both noted earlier, the morning CAMs had the current cells coming off of the mountains and evolving into the show. But the new HRRR doesn't do much with them and instead initiates the show later. Certainly seems plausible with the current cells struggling.
  17. high risk
    Would expect an MD within the next hour as that convection approaches the better environment. The CAMs all turn that into either the show or part one of the show.
  18. high risk
    12Z FV3 looks better, at least for the north side of DC. All of the CAMs look good for *some* coverage of storms, although there will be winners and losers for sure. And the area of highest potential is still all over the map. It's worth noting that several other CAMs have joined the NAM Nest with a weak surface low forming, which creates a mesoscale corridor of good wind profiles, and there are now modest to impressive single UH tracks in several solutions. Of course, need to get these damn clouds and morning showers out of here......
  19. high risk
    That is super impressive! It seems to be associated with a very weak surface low pressure center that backs and strengthens the low-level winds. Outlier for now, but it's worth noting that the forecast soundings across the board do support at least brief supercell structures this afternoon. NAM Nest scenario aside, the low-level winds are too weak for tornadoes, but I'd certainly take a few supercells rolling through.
  20. high risk
    I hated that event. Was likely to be a pretty big day, but a dying derecho rolled through during the early morning. It still had enough punch for some wind events in northern MD, but its main contribution to the day was to severely reduce the instability. A small complex with an embedded supercell actually tracked across Montgomery County during the mid and late afternoon with a fairly long-track (but overall weak) tornado, while another derecho tracked through the southern half of VA, far southern MD, and NC. Without the lead dying derecho, it would have been a pretty massive afternoon in the DC/Baltimore area too.
  21. high risk
    Not sure at all where we stand here at 20Z, but it's certainly not playing out as progged this morning. The CAMs looked great for the late afternoon period, but it's not cranking so far. The recent HRRR runs look awful, but I'm not totally sure to trust them fully, given their poor handle on the low-level moisture evolution.
  22. high risk
    Sign me up for today's 12Z HRRR. Round 1 with severe chances later this afternoon, round 2 of noisy storms late tonight, and round 3 with severe chances later tomorrow. Most of the CAMs are bullish for later today. While mid-level lapse rates aren't awesome, they're sufficient, and the deep-layer shear is seasonably strong. Could be a decent coverage of wind reports. HRRR is an outlier for the late night MCS, so I'll assume for now that it's unlikely. Shear isn't as strong Monday afternoon, so SVR would be more scattered, but the shear looks to still be sufficient for storm organization.
  23. high risk
    They’ve updated that to match the recent HRRR runs which initiate storms west of here by early afternoon and move a modest complex through the western burbs later today
  24. high risk
    Yeah, chances of more widespread storms today seem much higher. But the overall environment is far less favorable for severe: less CAPE, weaker lapse rates, and weaker shear. The one "sneaky factor" we have is a fair amount of downdraft CAPE, so perhaps if the storms organize and form a cold pool, we could get some decent gusts.
  25. high risk
    Honest question: instability is only very slightly better south of here. We're talking like 3000 surface-based CAPE vs. 2500 or so. That discrepancy shouldn't really make a difference. Both mid and low level lapse rates look very similar on the mesoanalysis as well.
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