high risk

Yeah, shear will be increasing later tonight, but there just isn't any instability to get a decent updraft. Even west of the Blue Ridge where "instability will be surging north", sfc-based CAPE values by early morning will be only a couple hundred J/kg at best.

Nothing I've seen this evening has tempered my cautious optimism for Thursday. Good convective signal across the CAMs with modest instability and either respectable or even good low-level shear (depending on your model of choice). Not sure there is enough for a day 2 ENH, but I expect the overnight update to at the least maintain the SLGT with a 5 TOR probability for our area.

Definitely a good SVR day for this area, but none of the tornadoes was particularly strong. I remember leaving work early to get home before things got bad, and the cells had some nice signatures but nothing with major impacts.

It's actually going to help us by lowering LCLs and allowing the circulations to more easily reach the ground. (But yeah, that is the potential fail mechanism, although it still looks for now like we'll have enough instability to make things interesting)

ride the hi-res window FV3 train, baby!

No argument about that, but I have to say that I'm intrigued by Thursday's potential. Guidance right now shows favorable timing, a good trigger (lee trough), a respectable upper pattern, and good directional and speed shear in the lower levels. Instability could be better, as we won't have full heating, and the lapse rates are fair at best (but I've see worse). I'm going to be cautiously optimistic for now.

Yeah, it does, although it tends to overmix and therefore move the warm front north too quickly. Will be interesting to see how far north sfc-based instability can develop this afternoon.

I'm just about entirely out for tomorrow for those of us north of I-66 in VA and Rt 50 in MD. There isn't any guidance right now that brings sfc-based instability this far north. In fact, any severe threat is likely to be a good distance south of DC. Definitely expecting some elevated convection up this way, but we're going to end up on the cool side of the boundary. Not looking forward to the possibly low to mid 50s Saturday.

That was the day several cells just north of I-70 interacted with the warm front there and produced several (low-end) tornadoes.

Tomorrow has sneaky warm front potential for sure, as storms interacting with and just south of the front will be in an environment with very favorable hodographs. The question is where the warm front sets up. Right now, I'd definitely want to be south of DC (in line with the SLGT risk area), as I think it's going to be too stable at the surface for those of us north of town.

had a bit of a downburst here in North Laurel. Had been heavy rain with very little wind, and the rain then went torrential with small hail and a huge burst of wind that took down some tree limbs and blew out a transformer in my neighbor's yard.

HRRR is still by far the most aggressive model in mixing out the low level moisture. I'll be closely watching the dew points early this afternoon - if they fall into the upper 50s or lower 60s, I'll temper my expectations. If they stay in the mid or upper 60s, the CAMs with stronger, more widespread storms are more likely to be right.

Yeah, they extended the 2% down here because a couple of HREF members have some very, very modest UH tracks. The afternoon storms probably have close to zero tornado potential, because as you noted, the shear is so weak. A window for a brief tornado might exist in the early evening if there is a round 2: the LLJ will strengthen a bit, and since it will have a westerly component, if the surface winds can back a bit near a leftover outflow boundary, a cell could briefly acquire rotation. If SPC had a 1% TOR contour, that would work just as well.

definitely encouraged about getting meaningful rain at the end of the week, although I'd prefer to not wash out the entire weekend. The Euro is really slow to move everything out and would make for a pretty wet and ugly Sunday. The GFS has been more progressive, but the GEFS is clearly trending towards a wetter Sunday. Slow movement of the trough is key to a big rainfall event, as the totals for Friday night across most guidance aren't huge due to the better overrunning likely setting up to our north.

Nice for sure to be "back in the game". Tomorrow certainly has some modest potential. Deep layer shear is going to be close to the lower thresholds for severe - the question seems to be how much will the moisture mix out. The NAM nest has been consistently keeping much higher low-level dew points, while the HRRR has been most aggressive with the mixing and lowers the dew points the most. The NAM nest therefore has the most widespread convection, while the HRRR has the least. The other CAMs are for the most part in the middle in terms of low-level moisture and in coverage of storms, so I think that a MRGL is ok for now, with potential to go to SLGT if the mixing of moisture ends up to be less of a factor.

heavy gusty shower with small hail

Yeah, Friday is kinda interesting. There isn't much CAPE at all in the forecast soundings, but a 500 mb temperature of -25C is certainly worthy of attention.......

Definitely a better event than I was thinking earlier, as the deep layer shear is better than progged earlier. That said, while I can see the stronger cells acquiring some broad rotation, you can't get strong low-level rotation with this wind profile: unless the model is way off with the weak low-level speeds that it's showing. It also doesn't look very good with the instability, but if lapse rates are better, there is plenty of dry air below cloud base to generate some intense downdrafts.

Yeah, trends are definitely good, and the full 12z suite of CAMs is quite encouraging. That said, despite some decent mid-level flow and inverted-V profiles, low level winds in the forecast soundings are quite weak. So, I'm enthusiastic about stronger storms in the area later today, but I think that not going any higher than MRGL right now makes sense.

(5:30pm) That's a really interesting storm just northwest of Winchester....

The 12z parent NAM giveth, the 00z taketh away.... Not very excited about Tuesday now, based on what I've seen in the evening runs. I'm on board with the MRGL for Monday - looks like some stronger convection later in the day (especially north of DC), in an environment that isn't great but isn't awful either.

One thing to watch is a secondary cold front that will move through in the very late afternoon. NAM Nest is most aggressive is actually generating a line of very gusty showers on the front. The frontal passage itself will likely enhance the winds even further.

Yeah, Monday and either Tuesday or Wednesday (per the Euro) seem to have at least some potential next week.

We have a MRGL today for areas generally north of the Capital Beltway in MD and Rt 7 in VA. CAMs suggest that the small window of opportunity for a few small clusters of northeast-moving cells with modest wind potential exists around dinner time, and the best chances *may* be in north-central and/or northern MD. A decent line on the cold front will approach the far northwest sections by early evening, but due to winds veering in the DC-Baltimore area behind the lead surface trough, limited convergence will likely cause the line to weaken or entirely fall apart. I'll be happy with some rain and a few rumbles of thunder (neither of which is a certainty).

As it looks now, the early Friday period does have some very limited SVR potential, with a strong front pushing through amidst some fairly impressive wind fields. Ultimately, though, the poor timing of the front and limited moisture will likely eliminate any threat without some significant modification to the evolution. The GFS idea of a phased trough, instead of the northern stream system shown by most other guidance, would help.