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high risk

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Everything posted by high risk

  1. high risk
    The 100 PoP in my NWS point-n-click forecast for tomorrow is..... brave.
  2. high risk
    Day 3 MRGL is east of here, but the 12Z NAM Nest an HiResW FV3 have slower timing of the front, so convection is better timed for much more of the area. Lapse rates are iffy, but shear is workable. If this trend continues, Day 2 products issued tomorrow would move the MRGL back into our area. Let's get the timing first. Then we can work on upgrading the environment to make it to SLGT.
  3. high risk
    So far, yesterday's HRRR smoke output does not not appear to have a good handle on today.
  4. high risk
    Curious as to why you would say that. HRRR has been pretty consistently showing some pretty substantial low-level smoke concentrations persisting through tomorrow. 00Z cycle this evening 21h forecast valid later Friday afternoon:
  5. high risk
    Consistent with reports in this thread, low-level smoke concentrations are dropping in areas north and northwest of DC. Still lousy air but some modest improvement: The HRRR smoke products have been consistently showing this scenario. Here is the latest run's forecast for low-level smoke later this afternoon. Tomorrow, unfortunately, looks worse again:
  6. high risk
    The HRRR smoke very clearly shows the low-level smoke concentrations dropping this afternoon, especially for areas northwest of DC.
  7. high risk
    The HRRR smoke products have been excellent at showing the extreme low-level concentrations across our area this morning. The model is showing a significant improvement later today for northern areas, as the heavy low-level smoke is shunted south before another wave of higher concentrations arrives during the late evening. Forecast for 5PM:
  8. high risk
    Incredible amount of smoke in the sky this morning, and consistent with what a few others have noted, I'm also starting to smell some smoke. This is consistent with the HRRR smoke output which has shown that the smoke will work its way down to the surface today, starting very early this morning.
  9. high risk
    Agreed. It's bleak for the next week, but all of the ensembles show rainfall flipping to near or even above normal starting next week and potentially lasting at least a couple of weeks. And the deterministic solutions are starting to key in on a potential system early next week to get things started.
  10. high risk
    I *think* you're correct. The MRGL on the 16th got close to the southern counties of LWX's CWA, but it looks like it stayed just south.
  11. high risk
    Ah, you nailed it.
  12. high risk
    Yeah, second week of June looks better, but that is still only "normal" rainfall according to the GEFS, GEPS, and Euro ensembles. The CFS is the only system hinting at above-average rain. And Saturday's opportunity looks to be fleeting for those of us on the east side of the Potomac. The front looks to crash through early and shift the best shower/storm potential to areas west and southwest of DC.
  13. high risk
    Source is fires over Nova Scotia
  14. high risk
    This post did not age well.
  15. high risk
    NAM and GFS starting to come into agreement for an ugly Sunday, with lots of clouds and periods of light rain and drizzle keeping temps in the lower 60s.
  16. high risk
    All good points. As you said, our best potential for a good combination of shear and instability is that mid-May to mid-late-June period. Events prior to that usually lack instability, and events later in summer often lack good shear. That said, we still usually get a few severe watch boxes in July and maybe August, and a tornado season can occur in the fall if the tropics are active.
  17. high risk
    It still kind of looks that way, but wow - it's beyond discouraging for at least the next week and likely beyond for any kind of decent convection. For me, the climatological peak of SVR in the Mid-Atlantic is roughly May 10 to June 20, and we sure are wasting it right now.
  18. high risk
    Yikes - the 00Z model suite has really dried out Saturday.
  19. high risk
    Simulated radars today show some very impressive reflectivity values. With the low freezing levels, I would think some small hail is possible if the updrafts are as strong as progged.
  20. high risk
    I wonder if that's connected to May being a peak season for backdoor cold fronts. The signal here in the Mid-Atlantic certainly looks "wedgey".
  21. high risk
    Damage pictures from the Va Beach area are pretty impressive. We had discussed further up in this thread a concern for a tornado threat with a strong low pressure center passing just to our northwest. The actual track of the low ended up well south of here, so we were out of the threat, but the low tracked just northwest of the Tidewater area, so this event is not a major surprise.
  22. high risk
    Which precip field? I see the big totals up in central PA in the probability-matched mean, but I'm seeing only 1-1.5" for most of the Delmarva.
  23. high risk
    The other question now is whether the surface low will actually track to our northwest and put the DC area into the warm sector Sunday afternoon. The evening CAM guidance tracks the low across far southern MD or the northern neck of VA and keeps the severe threat a decent distance to our south.
  24. high risk
    Need to watch Sunday. It's unclear how much morning/midday rain will limit surface heating and destroy mid-level lapse rates, but anytime a deep low pressure center passes by to our northwest, it bears watching. 12Z NAM Nest and HiResW FV3 both suggest some late day strong convection in an environment with some respectable shear.
  25. high risk
    round 2 now forming to the west, and HRRR thinks it will intensify and increase in coverage on the east side of the Potomac in a few hours. Won't be as widespread as round 1 but should add to precip totals for at least some of us
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