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The valley convergence has pushed far enough south down the valley to just now reach me. 1/8mi. visibility, it looks like. I'd guess this is 2"/hr rates. We'll see in a bit.... 24ºF/19ºF, N23G31, it's howling out there.

If ever you think about it seriously, talk to the NWS Burlington team. They do serious work in this area on nearly a daily basis during the winter. For example, here’s their AFD from this evening: 000 FXUS61 KBTV 020336 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1036 PM EST Mon Feb 1 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Accumulating snow will make for difficult travel conditions across the area, especially during the Tuesday morning commute. Southern areas will only see light snow Tuesday night, but northern areas will have the best chance for accumulating snow and continued difficult travel conditions through Wednesday. Overall looking at six to twelve inches of snow tonight through Tuesday night with slightly less amounts for portions of the Saint Lawrence Valley and parts of northeast Vermont. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 1003 PM EST Monday...Overall, no significant changes were made to the forecast. Only small tweaks were needed to speed up arrival of precipitation by an hour so as snow is already being reported at Rutland and Lebanon, NH. This precipitation shield will continue to move into northern NY and VT overnight. Interesting to note that east of the Greens temps and dewpoints are in the 20s while the northern Champlain Valley and northern New York remain firmly in the single digits/low teens. Have adjusted the temp forecast accordingly based on these latest observations. Still thinking that as the warm front continues to move northward these locations will warm into the 20s by morning. Previous Discussion...Forecast remains on track for widespread snow event across the North Country tonight through Tuesday night. Only change to headlines will be to include eastern Clinton County in the Winter Storm Warning. All other warnings and advisories remain in place. Bottom line much of the area will see six to twelve inches of snow with slightly less amounts over parts of the Saint Lawrence Valley and northeast Vermont. Snow spreads from south to north tonight and especially after midnight and continuing through the morning commute on Tuesday. Looking at a period of difficult travel conditions during this time period. Main mechanism for the snow during this period will be pronounced 700 mb frontogenesis lifting northward across the area. In addition, favorable alignment of omega and snow growth support the idea of a burst of steadier snow...around an inch per hour. The snow will taper off from south to north during the late morning and afternoon hours with best forcing lifting to the north. However, flow will become more northerly Tuesday night and moisture wrapping around the upper low will support the idea of snow becoming more widespread across far northern New York and northern Vermont. Northerly flow and very low Froude numbers support the idea that snow should also be in the Champlain Valley and not just confined to the higher terrain. &&

Continuum fluid dynamics defined as the ratio of the flow inertia (at the boundary layer) to the external field (at the crest level) that calculates blocking. BTV has experimental output they use to determine if snows will fall on the lee side of the crest, the windward side or, under extreme blocking conditions (ie., <0.50), back up into the valley. It's found here: https://www.weather.gov/btv/froudeALL I posted this earlier, I think, but here's the primer on it: https://www.weather.gov/btv/froude More scholarly reading: https://web.stanford.edu/~fringer/publications/mayer-jfm-2017.pdf

Does not compute.

First indirect influences of the storm here in Charlotte: LES band has popped on the increasing N low level winds. Fluffy dendrites FTW! Temp is up to 4F.

-5°F / -11°F here just south of Burlington. Probably not much mixing with the storm here. :^P Virga is now only 3 counties to the south away. It’s going to be a long day of radar hallucinations waiting. For those of you struggling with the NWS “upgrade” of the radar page, here’s my favorite mosaic from Univ of Washington. Change the number of frames there in the link for longer or shorter loops and to auto if you want it to auto refresh every 6 minutes: https://a.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?radar_us_full+30+-noauto And, if any of you want to pass the virga watching time and read up on Froude numbers for blocked flow, here’s an excellent primer from the team at NWS Burlington: https://www.weather.gov/btv/froude

-1°F / -5°F here in the Champlain Valley. Looking forward to 4-6 hours of WCB tomorrow night with the ~700 frontogenic max pushing thru then all eyes are on the froude number as blocked flow commences.

1.1" here in the Champlain Valley. Just enough to pretty up the 3" of crusty snow that's been sitting around for the last 3 weeks.

.25” waaaaaay out west here in the Champlain Valley. In the pre-dawn hours. Maybe we’ll squeeze another quarter inch tonight for a whopping 0.5” storm total. The freezing fog is fun tho.

Truth. 0.7” was the grand total in Charlotte last night. At least it all came in a 1.5 hour period so it looked nice whitening up the snow from the 2nd.

Topped out at 31°F yesterday with minimal sun only as it was setting. It’s all still here in the Champlain Valley.

3.8” was the storm total in Charlotte. It feels like a central Maryland snow. Dense, high water content. Might have to make a snowman.

3.1” here in Charlotte with 32dBZ returns overhead and more incoming from the WSW. Looking at correlation coefficient, the mix line stalled just south of Middlebury and recently shunted east as winds veered. Nice morning so far. Edited to add: 30.9°F here at the house. Going out for a run!

Column has finally saturated and light snow has commenced. 1/4” in the first hour. 28.1°F here in the northern Champlain Valley.

26.1°F and a passing snow shower in Clarksburg. It’s 61°F and raining here in Vermont. Merry Christmas, everyone!

Hi there, all. IP just turned to ZR at the house in Clarksburg. 31.1F / 31F. Storm total so far is 2.1" SN/IP. I'll be enjoying this one from the place up in Vermont. 14F / -3F here now and only expecting 2-3" of SN as the storm skirts by to the south and east.

Totally unrelated but I had a crash course in this. In the 72 hours ending at 3am this morning, there were 52 hourly obs of snow here in Charlotte and a temp that ranged from 24F to 29F. For a whopping 3.6" of snow. And, a max of 2.9" OTG.

There could be three tropical storms (or stronger) in the Atlantic basin at the same time in the middle of November. Incredible.

Here you go:

(sorry for the banter)

Flurries in Clarksburg. Temp is 38°F. It’s good to be in the area for the week!

The 11am update still has Zeta as a tropical storm as it enters SW Virginia. Is it really still warm-core at this point?

I gotta be honest, I am most interested in the potential, eventual interaction between what’s left of Zeta and the upper level low that will eject east out of that phased trough in the west. Whopper Halloween storms are fun.

Just saving this here. Organizing storms at 1min intervals and 0.5km resolution are a thing of beauty:

Saved here for posterity...