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And, the more it snows, the more capacity the OTG snow has to absorb the upcoming rainfall without washing away. In a perfect world, the dryslot cuts off the spigot early.

Starting the very first steps of transition here in the northern Champlain Valley. IP/SN mix when rates are low, all SN when it’s ripping. The dual pol CC line is still way south tho. 3.1” storm total so far. Temp up two to 32.1°F

Heavy snow here. Approaching an inch. Ripping returns on the doorstep.

Steady, light snow for the last hour here in the Champlain Valley. 29.4ºF after a high of 30.1ºF. Winds ticking up to SE at 13mph.

8.1” here is now 8.5” with the last few hours of highly blocked snow showers. Every dendrite is standing on end on top of each other to get that 0.4 inches. Ha.

Picking up again. 23.8°F IMG_8465.mov

8” was the total here in Charlotte, VT. Only had 2.1” from the WAA snows overnight but the UL trough and embedded shortwave really delivered today. Nice. One more vorticity lobe should pivot thru later and, coupled with blocked flow, should squeeze out another 1/2” before midnight.

1.4” up here 18 miles south of Burlington, VT in the valley. It took 3.5 hours to measure an inch. I’ll be happy with 3” by morning so far removed from the low/forcing. Then we’ll see what we can get with the UL trough moving thru late morning. Temp up a degree in the last 4 hours to 22.8°F on NNW winds of 3mph. It’s been 100% perfectly formed six-sided dendrites the entire time. It’s been a long time since I’ve seen that. Not a single plate, needle or conglomerated bunch. Have fun down south there with the frontogenic forcing pivoting in and east tonight! See y’all in the morning.

Just putting this here for posterity since I can save big loops here:

21.9ºF / 19ºF here in Charlotte, VT High of 23.1ºF Light snow continues.

Obs from the house in Clarksburg: 34.8ºF and a RN/IP mix. Mostly rain. Precip started out as SN and maxed out at 0.2" before rain started mixing in. Glad I am up in VT for this storm....

I totally get this. Going to school and living in Fresno, CA was miserable. I could not wait to move/work back east.

Overrunning Precip has started already way up here in NW VT. Ground is already white.

Typically, when you see ops guidance cranking out all-time SLP records at these timeframes, you toss it. But, the ensembles and atmospheric dynamics at play support it.

Here comes the reinforcing cold for y’all, moving thru NW VT right now. IMG_8374.mov

I’d guess our 1” of 18:1 fluff will be fully sublimated by the time the deluge on the 10th starts.

At least it’s on the right side of the globe this time.

Not really. Those on the NW cold side of the cutter on the 10th are fretting and overanalyzing every run of every model, just like this subforum is for this weekend's storm. There's just a whole lot less of them because it's the midwest.

I was talking with some friends at BTV earlier in the season, "laughing" that we'd be on the outside looking in in Jan/Feb watching storm after storm run thru the benchmark and leaving us with 1" of cold smoke or, worse, staring at high cirrus. Here we go, I guess.........

This is indeed the type of setup where Parrs Ridge typically does well. Edited to add: Those low level ESE and E winds advecting moisture in combined with the upglide can really wring things out on a front end thump like that at Parrs Ridge. Take a look at PSU’s post here. Good rationale there as well.

I love microclimate stuff like that. The radar coverage from KCXX is poor there, but it did capture some of the action where it was able to look up the Winooski River Valley. The band had to be less than 10 miles wide and persistent for hours. The highest report I saw was 8 inches. Did you see any higher than that?

I saw it waaaay off in the distance today from the other side:

How are things up your way? Did you lose 100%? Just some parking lot piles left around here in the valley. We got skunked last storm here at 284’ with a paltry 0.9”.

It’s been a busy time. Now that I am going back and forth between VT and DC/MD regularly again, I should be mucking around in here again. If y’all will have me.

The common understanding has been that short-term volcanic impacts on sensible weather were largely limited to equatorward significant eruptions (like Pinatubo) cooling worldwide weather for a year or two but recent research points to greater duration and impact for significant poleward eruptions. (The current Icelandic eruption is not significant in either ash or sulfur emissions at a global climatological scale). This is an interesting read on the subject if you are so inclined: https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2221810120