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das

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by das

  1. The most I've ever experienced is 33.6" in Clarksburg, MD 22-23 Jan 2016. Besting the highest total in Burlington, VT by 0.5" in 2010. I am the red dot in Montgomery County, MD in this NESDIS map:
  2. Here in Charlotte, just south of BTV, the inversion has been pretty cool. The high yesterday and Christmas day was 21ºF with a low of 3ºF and 7ºF, respectively with freezing fog each evening and the development of hoar frost. The inversion was only at around 900' and each time the DGZ would dip down below the inversion or the inversion would waver up, perfectly formed dendrites would start falling. Here's a couple of pics my daughter took with a crappy cell phone: I spent those two days up in Old Quebec City driving up on the 25th and back yesterday and took some pics of the inversion and freezing fog on my way back to VT yesterday evening. The temp alternated between 3ºF and -9ºF at sunset depending on the elevation of the St. Lawrence lowlands just to the north of the VT hills with those elevation differences only being ~20-30'. The hoar frost was fer realz where the fog was heaviest: ...and the fog pics at sunset were awesome: Sitting at 22ºF right now here in Charlotte with the deck lifted maybe 100' off of the ground. I am at 238'.
  3. This conversation got me curious and looking around. There is a ton of peer-reviewed research on the cloud physics of snowflake generation, on decent transformations like riming and even the metamorphosis of snow ice crystals in snowpack on the ground but very, very little about wind-affected transformations as it falls. I only found one hit in the intro of one paper but it was a minimal reference: "Snowflakes falling on the Earth's surface have a mono-crystalline, idiomorphic form (dendrite, for example) or polycrystalline elements with crystals ranging in sizes from 0.1-0.4 mm [1] at very low air temperatures (-50°C - -70°C) to several millimetres at air temperature around 0°C. Depending on the weather conditions (air temperature, moisture, wind velocity) the snowpack is formed under windless conditions from lamellar snowflakes with an initial snow density of 10-80 kgm -3 and idiomorphic contours, or from snowflake 0.2-0.3mm sized fragments formed under windy conditions with a density of about 200- 300 kgm -3." Guseva-Lozinski, E. (1999). Transformation of the snow crystal to a particle of ice. In: Hutter, K., Wang, Y., Beer, H. (eds) Advances in Cold-Region Thermal Engineering and Sciences. Lecture Notes in Physics, vol 533. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/BFb0104196 Seems like an interesting topic for an enterprising doctoral candidate.
  4. Funny you say that. I've only ever heard it up here from this specific crew. But, I've heard it from them a few times now. Here's the specific text. Judge it as you will: "...As such, snowfall amounts were increased pretty much everywhere leading to more widespread cover of 3 to 6 inches of accumulating snow. One foil, which moderated my forecast a bit, is that the dendritic growth zone is rather high for many locations and coincident with 35+kt winds. These winds will likely fracture a good portion of dendrites resulting in more of a mixed snow-crystal structure reaching the ground favoring a dry, but relatively more dense snowpack that could limit snow depth."
  5. The BTV AFD captures the risk here well. The snow growth level is high with some mid-level winds so it's likely that the dendrites will break up on the way down. Leading to denser and lower snow totals than would typically be expected with this air mass.
  6. This. My 4.1 inches of fluff is now 2 inches even though it has been cloudy all day with diamond dust falling for hours. Hopefully the clipper produces up here a little bit.
  7. Blocking in full swing down here. IMG_2832.mov
  8. Started snowing just after noon way up here in the Champlain Valley. Just passed 2 inches. Subcritical flow is trapping some moisture in the lowest levels for us (sorry for you all east of the Greens, all ur vape belongs to us) and flake quality is increasing. Next few hours should be nice. 4” by noon tomorrow would be a nice overbust up here. I'm too lazy to put my boots back on to take a nice Christmas lights pic so I’ll just post a pic of the car after banzai’ing around in the snow running errands. Fun!
  9. An op run 300 hours out in a volatile longwave pattern. What could possibly go wrong?
  10. I thought that when I left the Mid-Atlantic forum and came up here, I was coming to the land of Ivy League scholarship and New England courteous civility where even the banter contained references to sailing regattas, latent heat release, lobstah recipes and subcritical flow.
  11. 1.3" SN up here. Low level cold hung on longer than expected so no FZRA or FZDZ. It's been dry (and melty) since precip shut off and temps finally surged 8ºF between 11pm and midnight.
  12. My own personal snowstorm this morning. Subcritical flow FTW. 3” so far.
  13. 0.8" on the year here in Charlotte, 19 miles south of town. Woo?
  14. The line approaching western MA had some juice as it passed over KTYX
  15. And, keeping with the thread topic, snowfall total here in the Champlain Valley was a whopping 0.3". The dry slot moved in pre-dawn and now the sun is out and burning off the <1" we had OTG. And, it's a blazing 36ºF. Yuck.
  16. This paper hits on one of the challenges of disruptive (read, not modernized or transformative) technology. Successfully managing the organizational change management aspect of that disruption is often as valuable as the disruption itself. https://journals.ametsoc.org/configurable/content/journals$002fbams$002f105$002f11$002fBAMS-D-24-0044.1.xml Machine Learning-based AI has been deeply embedded into numerical weather prediction for 20 years. Generative AI is a whole different thing. And, you see the acceptance biases of NWS forecasters quite easily in this paper. And, interestingly, you see those biases morphing over the duration of the study. A side benefit of the study is the fantastic reference list of NWP and forecasting AI research papers. Enjoy!
  17. It was pretty cool to see this standing wave sitting over you for a couple of hours this evening.
  18. Nothing from the storm on Thursday. A dusting from today that survived in shady spots. Maybe 1/2” will fall tomorrow as a shortwave moves thru. It’ll stay since it won’t breach freezing and will be cloudier tomorrow. Wednesday nite and Thursday will be plenty cold but we’ll be shadowed pretty badly here in the valley so we’ll be lucky to get an inch for our 36 hours of SN wed-thurs.
  19. That’s the greatest thing ever. I’m going to show everyone at work tomorrow.
  20. Yep. Heck, one week from then. With my 0.1" from this morning, I am off the schneid. Looking forward to the Thursday clipper to get my total (barely) over an inch.
  21. I had the easiest cleanup. 0.00" of snow here at 284'. For the 12+ hours of precip, we had 20 minutes of SN, 6 hours of RN/SN and a low temp of 35ºF. If I drove in any direction for more than 15 minutes, there was accumulating snow.
  22. Shush. The weather gods are listening and will be displeased.
  23. Living in Clarksburg MD on Parr's Ridge for 20+ years, it was enjoyable being in the sweet spot for the DC area 90% of the time. Coming to Charlotte VT and being in the anti-sweet spot feels, um, not good, even though I average over double the annual snowfall of Clarksburg. It's an odd emotional juxtaposition. Could not pass up the house or location attributes (minus elevation) though.
  24. Who moves to Vermont then picks a place at 285'? This guy. This guy right here.
  25. Not much radar-based data in the area. From Belize, capturing the far northwest Honduras coast: Maps pretty well to the satellite estimates:
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