das

These are nice when they pop thru. Third one in the last two hours. IMG_3216.mov 0.2” on the day in Clarksburg. We’ll see where we end up.

0.4" from the Snowicane passing to the NW of Charlotte, VT.

It happened here in the Valley last week. 3" of subcritical flow fluff with the inversion below the ridgetops to the east. First time in a *VERY* long time. Just missed out yesterday as well. I got 0.5" but when I went to the gym 12 miles away, it was 4" of surprise fluff that just never shut off all day. The BTV snow machine is interesting in these NW flow regimes when there is a cutoff to the NE.

It's 25ºF here in Charlotte but the super bright/strong/blistering early January sun is melting my snow. I was surprised to hear the infernal drip-drip-dripping when I went on the porch a few minutes ago. When there is less than 0.1" water content in a 4" snowpack, what the sublimation does not kill, a 25º sunny day will.....

This is a real thing. The fire weather and mitigation process in CA, as flawed as it is, is on a periodic cycle meant to extend their limited resources. This tragedy hit at a down time meant for preparation and mitigations for the upcoming fire season. (The negative impacts of climate change, poor fire fuel management, etc... are very clear over the represented timescale but the yearly fire weather low period is very clear regardless). There is always risk, of course, but the risk is historically much lower this time of year so it is the natural time to plan and prepare. The perfect storm of increased hydroclimate volatility (perfectly at play in SoCal with two years of well above rainfall enhancing the growth of underbrush followed by anomalous dry in the 5 weeks leading up to this event): ...was a recipe for disaster. Here's a recently published paper by Swain et. al., from UCLA on the subject. SoCal is one of the study focus areas: hydroclimate volatility Swain et al.pdf California was second only to Idaho in total acres per square mile burned each year over the last 4 decades with a sharp increase in the last few years. Clearly, what they are doing is not working. ...and, that ignores the human-centered impacts with their propensity to build in places that they should not and fight fire fuel mitigation activities. Which is a whole 'nother discussion. This trend is only getting worse as time goes on: And, finally, having nothing to do with sharp increases in human population and encroachment into fire-prone areas, actual wildfire extents are increasing: ...but, as well, the intensities are increasing: Unfortunately, unless humans drastically change their short and long term behaviors, their desire to live in places that are fire prone, exacerbated by a upwards trends in the periodic cycles of climate and downstream effect on fire behavior, this will continue to be a volatile cycle of poor human and ecological outcomes.

Why wouldn’t you just use a modified version of the NESIS scale? It’s already firmly established and rooted in a codified and rigorous methodology. It would give whatever you are trying to do some credibility since it’s based on existing best practice.

What a great graphic.

No guarantees, of course but you are supposed to be an actual trained spotter to submit.

Thanks! I'll go with the 6.5" that was measured by my kid even though it would have likely been 7" using proper measuring methods...

It's going great! Great to hear from you! It looks like there was a 7" report in Damascus when all was said and done. Not a bad storm. I am heading down on Sunday for a couple of weeks. It'll be nice to come to a place that has some real snow. Ha.

I prefer the IEM Mesonet numbers typically vs. those reported into NWS. For example, they reported 7" 4mi to the NE and 7.5" 4mi to the SW of my place and my kid measured 6.5" OTG at the end in Clarksburg but with no "clearing the board".

Always a reporting desert in upper MoCo. C'mon, people.....

Any reliable measurements from Clarksburg? Either my 36” snow stake is buried (ha) or it fell down.

This is true. I have never had a snow day or weather-related day off in my 11 years as a Fed.

Whenever my wife calls me a weather nerd, which happens surprisingly often, I remind her of your story from 2016 as a way to center her perspective. Yeah, it doesn’t work that well. She just comes back with some snippy comment like, “safety in numbers is a fallacy…”. Ha. You are semi-famous in casa de das.

I am NOT putting myself in the same category as many here but this is one of the truer things ever said on this board. The talent that shows up here is off the charts good. Glad some of you recognize that.

Scored 1.2” over 3.5 hours with this. Open water of the lake gave the shortwave quite a boost. At times, there were 25dBZ returns occurring and you could still faintly see the moon through the clouds/snow. At least the ground is white again for the cold week.

Looks solid. Although, the max in MoCo being mid-County vs. Parrs Ridge rarely verifies. 1 in 10 times, maybe. The upglide on any low level flow with any easterly component is real.

I am driving down that Sunday. Maybe I should put a plow on the front of the car. And, apparently, I have to drive 500 miles south to get any snow in this pattern.

Starting to travel to DC (and stay in the Clarksburg place) more often again. It'll be nice to check in on you hooligans when I am in town. Especially since you all may be stealing all the New England snow in this pattern...

This confluence is fer realz. Will be interesting to see if it is overdone (as usual) and relaxes a bit leading up.

No, but you did hear what models are calling for.

This made me LOL.

And, just to be clear on why I am cluttering up this perfectly fine thread with this drivel above with legit threats on the horizon, I ascribe to the same practice as when a pitcher is throwing a no-hitter.

I am pretty sure my wife would rather I get euthanized vs. her beloved flock. It would be a bad, bad day in Casa de DAS if avian flu was discovered here.