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jbenedet

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Everything posted by jbenedet

  1. jbenedet
    I guess you all miss the verification scores of the EPS/GEFS vs the ops at this lead time…it’s not even close.
  2. jbenedet
    You need a new shtick. I was all over this storm.
  3. jbenedet
    yes Richmond VA as ground zero… 5 days, but this is not a complex setup. No multiple shortwaves or potential phasing of streams type variability. I’m seeing most of the forecast is about a significant arctic airmass… the shortwave will ride the boundary… That’s it. I think we gain a day or two of guidance accuracy given the lack of complexity here.
  4. jbenedet
    To be sure, I thought the axis of heaviest precip would be closer to I80 a few days ago. Now that’s the margin to be out of this completely already, imo. Trend hasn’t been good on a “north trend” if you zoom out to few days ago.
  5. jbenedet
    Hopes and dreams.
  6. jbenedet
    In terms of lead time I’d normally agree with you. But this is as suppressive a look you can get based on airmass ( without mid level confluence). We are filling in for Canada this weekend.
  7. jbenedet
    You don’t take the op runs over the EPS /GEFS at this stage. Inside day 4 you might start weighing them similarly.
  8. jbenedet
    North of I80 in PA is out of the game on the weekend threat.
  9. jbenedet
  10. jbenedet
    Yea timed with peak winter climo as well.
  11. jbenedet
    Good luck on that…
  12. jbenedet
    NNE already with high odds of very cold and very dry after today through month end imo. I’m more inclined to include that region to pike - north than not, at this point. But will give that a few more days of model runs…
  13. jbenedet
    Good thing having the snow cover around before that serious freeze next weekend…Oof. Insulate the basement/pipes and protect the plant roots…
  14. jbenedet
    I guess you haven’t been on then.
  15. jbenedet
    Raining here
  16. jbenedet
    Filtered sun and 34 here currently… Interesting…
  17. jbenedet
    I’d call 3-6”
  18. jbenedet
    Yea you want to be south/east with this. The trailing vort is a kicker that inhibits the latitude gain of the CCB.. Eastern LI, southeastern MA
  19. jbenedet
    We had to sacrifice this afternoon batch to get tomorrow to work. speaking for the eastern crew…
  20. jbenedet
    I’m with @dendrite But regardless - AIFS better than Euro/GFS, considering the list..
  21. jbenedet
    Said differently, it’s like it took the rest of guidance two days to catch up to the EC AIFS… I’m able to say that bc it had the right depiction and stayed on it….
  22. jbenedet
    Hasn’t the EC AIFS had highest verification scores as of late…? I’m not sure why anyone is doubting it against the other globals. Having that 32F surface isotherm dancing around our heads was a pretty easy tell we could get a good event here despite all the short term model waffling, across the other guidance. The EC AIFS also kicked azz bc look at the past two days of runs—-so consistent.
  23. jbenedet
    Yea buckshot. Exactly. I’m painting with CPC brush here… Which one? — it’s this one… I ain’t picking and choosing runs here either. Pretty much all major guidance has had some variation of this over the last day or two and you can see the signal faintly on the ensembles…
  24. jbenedet
    That day 9/10 threat I think that’s big dawg potential for mid Atlantic. Our region can be in on it but I really feel like odds are low north of pike. Best focus around interstate 80. Of course early but that’s my feel for best threat in view right now.
  25. jbenedet
    That interstate 80 region from PA to NY looks like a sweet spot, 20th to month end. Good time for you to be watching closely.
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