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jbenedet

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Everything posted by jbenedet

  1. jbenedet
    Saturday 970's in the gulf of maine, with CCB overhead but temps advecting from Ontario, which is in the mid to upper 30's.
  2. jbenedet
    This storm was the great opportunity missed because of late Nov climate and antecedent warmth. This was the storm. This isn’t your table setter or pattern changer; it’s the one to cash in on. And we missed it.
  3. jbenedet
    I agree. Studies focused in/around the UK and Ireland makes a lot more sense at this stage, vs Florida...
  4. jbenedet
    @bluewave You really don't see the regional off-shoots (Western/Eastern Maine coastal current) of the labrador current in the current SST profile. It seems like there's the Nova Scotia current, but relatively warm, and mostly confined to Cape Breton Island area....Not seeing it extend much into the GOM at all...
  5. jbenedet
    I've been tracking this mostly in our backyard for how the Labrador current is responding. Does anyone have good historical data for SST's around NS, Cape Breton island and Downeast Maine? I'm still seeing SST's 49-50F in this area, which seems exceedingly warm... What's most odd to me is you don't see any clear temperature footprint of the labrador current as SST's much further south off the coast of NH and MA are in the low 50's...Usually you see a steep drop off in SST's around mid coast ME...
  6. jbenedet
    We are tracking to have least amount of pack on the ground by December 1st in our overall region; combining Ontario, NB and the northeast US. I know it’s mostly due to dry conditions, in the colder locations in Northern Maine and Canada…but it’s something important to note as we head into met winter.
  7. jbenedet
    I guess the point here is, you really narrow the potential for BN if with -AO and - - NAO --as is now-- and we still generally ++ AN. What's the recipe to land the seacoast of NH into BN territory with some consistency? It's a rhetorical question...
  8. jbenedet
    That axis centered around West Virginia is the goods. We get the stale stacked low remnants.
  9. jbenedet
    6Z EPS says I register AN all week. And i buy it...
  10. jbenedet
    The best mid level height falls are already progged over the mid Atlantic. The -NAO will be significant enough to send the whole anomaly south of NNE. So it wouldn't surprise me to see the interesting wintry weather more over elevations of PA, West Virginia and NJ, while near normal mid level heights are over northern NNE.
  11. jbenedet
    Man what a perfect day for a local hike. No leaves on the trees makes for more sunny areas and the bugs are all gone thanks to a few freezes.
  12. jbenedet
    The landmass there is least wide, and also flat wetlands. SST's are also quite warm. This combination won't allow for much --if any--- weakening before affecting the densely populated areas of Miami dade county. It's one run, but I'd caution against this as an optimistic scenario, especially if it comes in stronger at that angle.
  13. jbenedet
    Not for nothing the MJO just had a solid pass through phase 8, if we're not scoring some near normal temps, given that backdrop....we are absolutely cooked.
  14. jbenedet
    Upcoming pattern looks AN and dry. Not bigly AN, as seen in recent weeks but +5ish... The pacific is skunked and the -NAO that develops looks to be significant to the point that the pressure tendency in the northeast US is the Canadian surface highs hooking up with the western Atlantic ridge. UL confluence but cold airmasses no where near our region.
  15. jbenedet
    Normal temperatures “behind the cold front”.
  16. jbenedet
    6z GFS MOS with high of 61 at PSM. It’s currently 52. 65 is in view.
  17. jbenedet
    Roses still in bloom around Dover. Lawns still green. I def enjoy the warmth as long as we stay out of the brown of stick season.
  18. jbenedet
    PSM with low of 36 but already up to 41 on SW winds.
  19. jbenedet
    Portsmouth NH: yesterday high : 73 This morning’s low: 63 Today’s high: ~80 About normal for…September 6th.
  20. jbenedet
    Clearly see that the obs were with a freeze in the seacoast region but the neighborhood flowers that remain seem unaffected. My rose bush in full sun area is still flowering…Will see if it still looks the same by this time tomorrow.
  21. jbenedet
    Why would we take measurements here—in the sub tropics??? I think what they found is what we should have expected; but it doesn’t explain anything. The theory is the current/circulation is slowing (with time) from north to south, NOT south to north…. A similar study should have been performed much further north/east, closer to the Azores—upstream of the cold pool.
  22. jbenedet
    The GFS op is going to crush snow weenie souls again this season.
  23. jbenedet
    Overall a very average feel to the air and look to the sky. But with the sun breaking, we will have another AN day incoming. +2. “Behind the front” in the sea coast area.
  24. jbenedet
    69 for the low at PSM.
  25. jbenedet
    +25 happens with a run of the mill warm front. -25 would take a volcanic eruption
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