jbenedet

In terms of snowcover we are trailing behind every year since 2019, except last year. Last year in mid December there were back to back cutters that decimated the snowcover through year end. We have a hostile period incoming about 10 days behind last year's...Will be interesting to see where we are around the 1st...

For Friday night, with the cold so close didn't really anticipate stacking issues but.... Highest pop in the areas with surface temps above freezing. Northeast winds.. but for BOS/ to SE MA, that's right off the GOM which in points northeast is still ~45F....

Tonight has turned to mostly rain even in the interior of NNE.

Another 50+ degree day. really nice in the sun…

Without in situ cold, timing becomes critical. With split flow, timing is especially difficult…odds are great that we miss the big ones. (Jury is out on the 21st for extreme southeast sections) Now the weak open wave storms like tomorrow or the clippers that were rainers for most—that’s the biggest shift that is hardest to anticipate. If these were producing advisory snows in broad areas of SNE we’d be largely normal for the month…So if you’re not factoring a +2-4F in background climate you got screwed. Worse still is you could double down on the lost snow in December and call for a mean reversion in Jan-March which isn’t coming because your snow fell as white rain or just plain rain.

I’m seeing 50 obs at PQI

60F on 12/17 and the pattern hasn't even shit the bed yet. Wiped out a week's worth of BN days with today alone.

@Typhoon Tip There's so many knock on affects... We talk a lot about the gulf of maine....But something that I've started to key in on much more - reduction of sea ice in the great lakes and especially the Hudson bay. The hudson bay could pass for an ocean, given its scale in surface area. If this stays ice free longer, it's not just a shift of a few degrees, but probably 5-10 degrees given the arctic air that it's moderating on its way here...

Bangor Maine with a 50F this morning. That should be good for a +15....

The warmth ahead is impressive, but to me the lack of cold behind these fronts is the more interesting story. Keep in mind this is *while* the pacific is cooperating... Have to go way up into UP of Michigan or far interior Ontario to even find temps at freezing... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16#

At least the warm weather around Christmas makes for lighter packing when traveling...

I dunno ....I read through some of this stuff and I find it all unnecessarily complicated. Gobbledygook.... Keeping it simple.... I see significant differences between the MJO forecast for the GEFS and EPS... GEFS wants to spend a lot of time in phase 7 at high amplitudes while EPS wants to move through 7 at low amplitude and into phase 8 by beginning of the year. For the east, this is amounts to significant difference in sensible weather outcomes given the phase 7 (+AN) /8 (BN) tendencies. The GEFS currently has a lot more company than the EPS... my bet would be accordingly.

Yea. Again there's no canadian high, and the antecedent is warm. I find when you look to your north/west and see dews at/above freezing in marginal events like this, it's a pretty big tell on rain or, at best, white rain. We're basically relying on wetbulbing and wetbulbing alone won't cut it with this airmass.

I mentioned yesterday that most interesting system for eastern SNE is around the 20th. Cape scrape appeal. Yea should watch that down there. All I’m saying is the pattern is shifting to hostile starting around 22nd and last to at least end of year.

Tomorrow 50’s all the way to presque isle.

Pattern begins changing for the worse around the first day of winter. Looks like ski country will be fighting to keep what they have to end the year.

The 21st is the well-timed shortwave in terms of supportive cold in an overall AN pattern but the system is way south and suppressed on current GEFS and EPS guidance. IMO outside of interior NNE it’s the only one to watch with some mild interest. Cape scrape opportunity with this one…SE areas of the subforum favored here…

19 for the low.

Numbers aren’t gonna get closer than that down to the day. Interestingly too, following last year’s pattern, next few weeks are tilted to warm/wet in the northeast. It is following very closely.

Okay guy. You got me, alright.

Significant El Niño conditions this time last year; low end Nina conditions this year…But…. Snow cover in the northeast US and southeast Canada is basically same as this day last year. Percentage wise and area coverage. Strikingly similar.

Also, I don't know if that's the right take on this. I think the better read is that -NAO was still in the background state but not felt in sensible weather until much further north. My belief is the cold influence of -NAO's has also weakened (at our latitude) with time due to the warmer SST's in eastern Canada and the Gulf of Maine. The mid level confluence response that we are so used to seeing in our region in a -NAO regime is now displaced further north/east, generally...

Yes but what about the seasonal pattern to this? I think it has to do with the climatalogical peak and min of SST's In the North Atlantic. For example - Iceland's temperature isn't as negatively affected by the shutting off of the AMOC in late spring and summer (atmospheric temp > water temp), but it is severely reduced in winter (water temp >> atmospheric temp)... Hence the cold pool phenomomen peaks in early winter...and the peaking of the cold pool coincides with a flip to +NAO tendency. This is the critical aspect to my hypothesis...

NAO Index is following very similar behavior to last year. I would like to better understand why we see -NAO tendency dominate fall, flip to +NAO tendency around the beginning of winter (end of December/mid January), and predominate through mid March... As we know from an ENSO state, this year vs last is apples to oranges and yet, the NAO index is following very closely... Something bigger may be going on here... I know on the climate change side there has been a semi-permanent "cold pool" observed to be centered in the region of iceland, which is theorized to be driven by the slowing down of the gulf stream component of the AMOC. Perhaps the development and peaking of this "cold pool" coincides with the the near solar minimum, which in turn drives the NAO Index to positive tendency. The cold pool is relatively less by mid March as SST's in the North Atlantic achieve minimum, and ISR is more influencial to +temp anoms in this part of the world...

https://forecast.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KBHB.html Bar Harbor— 38 sustained gust 67, last night.