jbenedet

It’s a beautiful morning. Could get by with a sweatshirt during the dog walk.

Looking at radar—looks like it’s moving into our area by noon… Ahead of schedule…

It’s much better than the op guidance. That’s my main point. But yea, during warm-ups the tendency is also for these to be slightly too cold.

MOS surface temps are not used enough around here on the coast. That would help balance these clown maps out in the warmer areas. Blasphemy.

I hate you for this.

yes atmosphere is cold above the surface But - it’s a fast mover, ground will be warm and surface temps warm at onset. I’m concerned overall ratios and white rain, before the flip to good rates. I’m expecting 4” imby. And more confidence it ends up lower than higher. 3-4” highest confidence.

12z NAM op has surface temps peaking in the mid 30’s today. But NAM MOS has PSM with high of 42, and not going below freezing until 3z tomorrow. Guess which one is completely wrong.

The reason why I’m on board with the cmc/Rgem because the GEFS temp anoms most resemble the warmth and location of the BZ on those op runs.

Yea no kiddin’. This is basically what my first post was. Half of qpf to rain then a flip to snow. That’s my base case here. But weenies can’t even handle that forecast…

Thanks for posting this right below @ORH_wxman”no issues in coastal NH”. Yea I know you guys wear snow goggles but I’m most aligned with the Rgem/CMC

I said DAW south and east. It’s a lot of people by population. Most of the region will get a good snowfall. Good storm.

It’ll be in low 40’s today and tomorrow in a good chunk of the sub forum and with the snow melt, weenie psychology will start melting too.

Gonna be interesting. We’ve had seasonal cold and many have lost that +3F that shows up in our background state in situation just like this. It’s antecedent warmth. And the models are back to being too cold already. Check out obs right now. I don’t trust the GFS thermals at all right now. It’s gonna tick warmer along the coast. I’m also not seeing why the SLP can’t run over SE MA given the orientation of the BZ.

The GEFS has trended warmer on Sunday. A lot warmer. My base case is the CF is basically 5 miles north of me, rain. Then drapes south the 2nd half. Half storm/qpf lost to rain. Another situation where DAW cashes in but points just south /east of there have significantly less.

The problem with Monday is the ensembles are showing an open frontal wave, fast flow with North/south orientation. It's mid January so there will be a stripe of 1-6" snow somewhere (my guess is far interior) but this is a shit event by our climate standards, verbatim.

You’re gonna want to be west of the CT river for these, or up at Winne latitude in the east. Plenty of room to cut per the ensembles. I’m expecting rain imby.

The ensembles are AN for this week and considerably once north of the pike.

You want to bet against me on that through day 10?

SE MA meh’d it’s to its best snow of the season and best event for the foreseeable future.

This looks like a wintry day for south eastern MA maybe up to Boston; and then too for most of Maine. Could last another 6 hours in those areas. Light snow but very wintry feel. I think I’m tapped here with maybe 1”. Snowing but too lightly to add up and very poor snow growth.

Maine getting the IVT. Falling between zones of forcing now; subsidence moving in overhead. Precip shutting off.

Agree. I had said 100 miles SE of BM, but this is more like 200 on latest. It’s still too far… That said, I still think that would be closer to the cape/islands with the main convection.

Looking at the 6z euro; this is irritating that the overall track and intensity is very close to what I had envisioned but the precip shield is so anemic on the north/west side.

Yea it’s been a bad stretch due to warmth; not lack of precip. What’s kinda crazy though is if you go back to 2015 it’s pretty damn close to your climate average, despite this stretch. I think we’re missing dry years and this looks like the first in a while…

We have been precip rich many years in a row. I think the fact that this hasn’t translated into >> avg snowfall is the big story that doesn’t quite get the attention because our 10 year average is still pretty consistent with our climate…but if we start mixing in those drier years you’re really gonna see the affects of a slightly warmer winter climate on the long term snowfall averages… To maintain our averages we have to snow when the precip is available because it can be woefully dry some years.…this may be one.