jbenedet

The back door makes it to NC/Virginia border on Friday; much further south than this past weekend. Friday looks beautiful as a result. I’m hoping we can get it to stick south on Saturday…Will need confluence to strengthen and dampen the incoming weak disturbance to a fizzle but bigger changes still needed on guidance. That would then leave the worst weather to Sunday with the much deeper wave…BN and wet.

No one’s gonna warm sector this weekend. The back door getting sent to the mid Atlantic. Trick is well north/east of the boundary it should be decent weather for early April.

I'm optimistic up here - I think this window can really suck for central Jersey south, relative to norms... MJO phase 8 isn't a big BN signal this time of year - slight bias, but largely neutral in eastern NE... We need the operationals to digest the latest teleconnection forecasts before it will send the boundary of shit to our south...

That sig -NAO/-AO....oof.. If she's gonna go negative this time of year, go bigly - send the easterly flow to Virginia/North Carolina, and we can be okay... That backdoor CAN turn to a surface ridge to our southeast... Better weather relative to norms - is north/east in situation like this. "Best in Maine"....

Took longer than expected here but it is turning a beautiful evening walk downtown with the dog.

@Typhoon Tip - you should be starting to cook now, if not within 30 min.

Albany 67/54...

Yea it certainly has that vibe. BUT... Syracuse NY 70/52, and that's in overcast. SW winds 21, gust 29. It's coming...

65/61 already in Trenton NJ.

We all talk about the need for consistent low level cad drain wile precip is falling for ice accretion. Surely you understand the science as to why that's the case or you wouldn't have a degree. We got to see the physics and chemistry in full-effect. End of story.

This is just a poor critical thinking exercise, honestly. Sorry you didn't get the observations you were hoping for. Try much harder --if you can-- at explaining the physics/chemistry. Hint: those dews were sitting in the upper 20's. Was that broken too? Perhaps 1 hour obs and 1 temperature probe isn't telling the full picture??? LOL. This is pathetic level thinking here.

Nope.

Laughable having PWM as same climate to Dover NH. That's like Gloucester MA vs BED.

There was a very brief window Saturday night we dipped to 30/28. but other than that —33/31; I sat here too. That brief window was largely dry until precip started again overnight Saturday but we then quickly warmed back up to 33/31.. I think what you had was more of a stale mate between the chemical processes of melting/freezing. Whatever had accreted during the coldest points was maintaining but couldn’t accrete further from there. Melting was cooling then freezing was warming…see saw leading to nothing but the initial glaze from when the cold made its best push. This event really was limited by no persistent CAD drain. It really shows when you have to go to Winne north to find damage.

I was watching that here too. To be honest all this skepticism is really lame when it could be verified with a reliable, calibrated thermometer. This isn’t theoretical stuff.

Yea will take the bike out this afternoon. Perfect.

ASH and PSM?

Yea I know everything but the cold obs are running warm. MHT is “fixed” when it’s colder than progged though.

PWM? GWDLT

Pretty sure March will be around +8 for my hood. It was a “long winter” for some of those in SNE though.

Pretty cool to see a battle in very early spring where the warmth ultimately wins. we 70+ High temp records look threatened.

It’s all relative and for late March it’s not terrible. 40/32 and dry; I’ll take that any day over the rock bottom weather we had yesterday; stuck in the low 30’s and spitting rain/frozen mix all day… It’s actually possible to get stuff done outside today.

This is probably the third time in at about 5 years where I missed significant icing by ~1.5 degrees… In terms of natural disaster risk this has definitely felt the closest; with multiple “near misses”.

Today does actually look on track to be okay here. Far from good but much better than yesterday. Nothing that has fallen overnight has accreted; stuck at 33/31 since about 8 p.m. last night. Doesn’t cut it for ice. Precip will shut off here in a few hours and winds out of the SE should bring up the dews and temps above 40 by this afternoon.

Kinda funny that I’m looking forward to tomorrow’s 40’s and overcast… Weather is that bad today.