jbenedet

Looking more and more like a week-ish of suffering through dry and significant cold to a warm up and cutters. Then we evaluate if the warmup is an interlude or a new pattern…

sure. Buts it’s crap odds at this stage. Low end advisory or a big cutter if it phases. It has the hallmarks of another big cutter.

Warm. That one is pretty well screwed. If it phases with the northern stream we’re cooked.

You could not draw up a worse pattern than this. Significant cold and no big storms. Miserable unless you’re a hermit.

Plot twist: 6th is a very big storm, but it’s another cutter that ushers in a crap pattern. Question to be answered is if the hostile pattern sticks.

“Pattern shift….” Careful what you wish for. There’s some naive optimism in seeing less mid level troughiness on the west coast but this is not without losing cold anoms in Canada. After first few days of January risk is tilted warm, even in the northeast. There’s some indications also, that the MJO makes a pass to 4/5/6 which are all warm phases for Jan. Pattern looks like trash around hr240 on the ensembles. Deluded to be getting excited for big snow from day 9ish on..

January 6th system is warm. CONUS and Canada cooked. It will want to warm sector where most of us live. You’re making a bad bet on hoping for this to turn to a big snowstorm.

The HRRR is way too cold vs all guidance, tonight. No reason to buy that with the clouds moving in after sunset and torching above the surface starting by midnight.

Freezing is a warming process. Temps will spike quickly to 32 everywhere except the valleys of NNE.

Zzzzzzz

Zzzzzzz

Looks good. Liking the 0.25 contour cutting through DAW. Another case where Rochester has a lot more icing risk than my hood just 10 miles SE. I could see DAW getting 0.25” but my backyard getting less than 0.1”. We’ve had a number of events with very favorable atmospheric icing conditions but a degree or less saves us from disaster. Not the case just 5 miles to my northwest…

I think the sig icing risk is confined to the valleys of NNE. Atmosphere is warm just above the surface…

Thought this was too interesting not to post. Never would have guessed Maine and NH top the list vs points out in the pacific north west. New England pride on this one —for me anyway. https://www.islands.com/2055872/america-most-forested-state-east-coast-gem-atlantic-views/

There was no “tick-tick” north on the GEFS or EPS. Noise on the GFS op. The -NAO block is intensifying so i don’t see a surprise last minute jump north with this. 5-10” storm for NYC metro. Models have been locked.

Yea that is the way. What a tough forecast for PWM… 8” is a good forecast though, all things considered…

I’m not expecting more than 0.2” LE from this. 4-6” range here is shtoooopid.

yea my mistake. Thanks. I thought you were taking a break from here? Family time cancel?

GFS radar output is like snizzle/light snow varying intensity for 6 hours. That’s it for my hood.

Very difficult forecast for PWM. There’s going to be a very narrow area 6”+ amounts with this..

Hope ya’ll checking the progged radar output on the 12z GFS.

Too low in midcoast Maine to Portland. 6z EPS had 1” qpf. There will be a over a foot locally there. Also think this is too high over here. This map appears as more of an uncertainty cast as to where the band sets up… The band will be about 100 miles wide; go with 2” outside of that and call it a day.

Yea not talking about that. Talking about later…

The shit streak surprise in SNE tells me expect some forcing to be robbed with the part two “lead” of the clippah.

Better off taking the under 10:1 on ratios. I also don’t see how I eek out 0.25” qpf here but all the guidance showing it… On ratios - the risks are not BLtemp related but lift, weak snow growth, and scattered light precip. None of this bodes well to stack. 7:1 probably better hedge… Unless you get into the IVT this should be the story in eastern New England sans Maine and the far interior of NH.