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winterwx21

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Everything posted by winterwx21

  1. winterwx21
    Yep looks as if it's falling apart as it's getting close to our area, just like the HRRR showed. Probably just gonna get some rain.
  2. winterwx21
    What we've seen is a warming climate doesn't necessarily mean we'll get less snow. In the last 15 years we've had a lot of average to well above average snowfall winters. You do have to wonder though if we can keep pulling that off. As the climate continues to warm, it certainly wouldn't be surprising if way below average snowfall winters (like last winter and 19-20) start to happen much more frequently. I also agree with you about this coming winter (not looking good), but long range is hard to predict so I wouldn't give up hope.
  3. winterwx21
    Yeah even though last winter was close to the worst ever, we haven't done that bad in recent years. And before 2018-19 we had that incredible run of mostly well above average snowfall winters. Hard to complain even though last winter was horrible.
  4. winterwx21
    Yep that's what I said yesterday. I didn't like that the timing of the storms was for night after we lose the daytime heating. I wouldn't expect much tonight, but we'll keep an eye on it just in case. At least we got a decent soaking this morning. I got 0.62" here. Nice watering for the garden so I'm happy.
  5. winterwx21
    And it's not as if we're that far removed from an above average snowfall winter. Last winter was horrible obviously, but NYC got 38.6 inches in the winter of 2020-21. Well above average. One horrendous winter last year isn't enough to make me believe that the situation has gotten so bad that we're never gonna see an above average snowfall winter again. .
  6. winterwx21
    The timing could be later than we want too. RGEM doesn't hit us with the 2nd round until 9pm when we're losing the daytime heating. But at least it looks likely that we'll get plenty of rain between the 2 rounds.
  7. winterwx21
    Even the Euro is dry now for Tuesday. It's looking more likely now that Tuesday's cold pool storms with the UL will stay north of the area. I still wouldn't rule out isolated activity for Tuesday, but Monday is our main event.
  8. winterwx21
    It's definitely going to rain on Monday (one round in the morning and another at night), but he's talking about Tuesday. I see RGEM also doesn't show much activity for Tuesday. We could see another round of storms Tuesday afternoon, but that's a big question mark right now. So he does have hope of it possibly being dry for his event Tuesday. Monday is a different story though. As you said it's an impressive system, and we should get a significant amount of rain between the 2 rounds.
  9. winterwx21
    You keep including Wednesday in the humid/stormy, so I just want to point out that Wednesday is actually going to be a beautiful dry day. A sunny breezy day with a WNW wind and dewpoints dropping to the high 50s. A spectacular day Wednesday, but we should get a good amount of rain Monday into Tuesday as you pointed out.
  10. winterwx21
    The CMC has rain during the morning too. Yeah that could mess up storm chances later in the day, but I'll be happy as long as we get a decent amount of rain Monday. As you said we need it again after a dry week. I watered the garden today because the soil has really dried out. Looks as if we have another chance of storms on Tuesday, and then a beautiful day on Wednesday as we go back to lower humidity.
  11. winterwx21
    But then of course the erratic HRRR model wasn't as impressed on the 12z run. I see RGEM and both NAMs also give us nothing on the 12z runs. SPC did move us into marginal risk and I would say we have a slight chance of seeing something, but I'm not very optimistic. It looks like a very slim chance.
  12. winterwx21
    Monday's storm threat looks a lot better than tomorrow's, but obviously too far out to get excited. Looks like a significant humidity spike on Monday with dewpoints going to the low 70s, so hopefully that will help to fuel the storms. Looks like another nice airmass coming in mid next week with lower humidity again. Overall a very nice first 10 days of August with not a lot of humidity. I'm guessing that will change in mid August.
  13. winterwx21
    I don't agree with you about the weekend. No rain in the forecast at all and the models are not showing any activity. North wind on Saturday brings in drier air with dewpoints falling to the high 50s late in the day. Overall looks like a nice weekend with lower humidity. Not super low humidity like we've had the last several days, but dewpoints in the high 50s to low 60s is pretty nice for early August.
  14. winterwx21
    Hopefully Friday's storm chance will deliver. Euro has a lot of the area getting hit by heavy downpours. Then a nice weekend with lower humidity.
  15. winterwx21
    The dewpoint is 47 here right now. It felt as if I was running outside in late September this afternoon. Invigorating, and it's great that we're gonna have dewpoints in the 40s again tomorrow. Gotta take advantage of this while we have it, so tomorrow I'm going up to Swartswood Park for hiking. After tomorrow we might not see humidity this low again until September.
  16. winterwx21
    Being bored wasn't an issue for me. Mid to late August I was outside playing baseball constantly, and dreading the start of school year. lol
  17. winterwx21
    I would've hated going back before Labor Day. I know around here most schools still wait until after Labor Day.
  18. winterwx21
    We still have to watch the timing, but yeah it looks as if it will get out of the way in time for a beautiful weekend. Just a brief humidity spike on Friday with showers/storms, but the humidity should drop again for the weekend. Not the spectacular high 40s dewpoints we're seeing today and tomorrow, but they should get back down to the high 50s which is pretty nice for early August.
  19. winterwx21
    Dewpoint of 52 here right now. This is the start of 4 days in a row with dewpoints this low. A spectacular stretch.
  20. winterwx21
    Nothing at all for me morning and evening, but we've had plenty of rain lately so that's ok. Now we get to enjoy a spectacular low humidity stretch for the next several days. Looks as if our next rain chance doesn't come until Friday.
  21. winterwx21
    Yeah I see that small cell that just popped up heading into Union County. Will miss me to the north but looks like a close call for you.
  22. winterwx21
    Right now it looks as if Friday will be our next storm threat and then it moves out of the way for a beautiful next weekend. Obviously it's still early and that could change, but right now next weekend looks good.
  23. winterwx21
    Missing us just slightly to the south. Heavy rain going into central and southern Middlesex County. Not a surprise ... we knew it would be a broken line as you mentioned earlier.
  24. winterwx21
    The overnight and early morning downpours missed me, but hoping to get a storm later in the afternoon. Sunday through Wednesday is gonna be an incredible low humidity stretch for the end of July and beginning of August. I wouldn't be surprised to see dewpoints get down to the high 40s Tuesday into Wednesday.
  25. winterwx21
    High temp of 93 here today. The dewpoint dropped to 67. Pretty comfortable out there.
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