winterwx21
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Everything posted by winterwx21
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I agree with you. I enjoyed all of our heavy rain-t-storm events during the summer, but I finally got tired of it. Obviously we got more than enough rain the last few months and don't need any more, so I'm glad this one isn't producing for my area.
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I didn't say a big chunk of the area. But last night's HRRR had a band of 3 to 5 inches from the Jersey shore up through NE New Jersey and the NYC area. Doesn't appear that's gonna happen now. 3km NAM cut way back on amounts too. Some heavy rain in spots for sure, but not as impressive as it looked last night.
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Yep just getting a shower now. Heavy downpour going through central Middlesex County.
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Gonna be heavy rain in spots, but overall it isn't looking as bad as what yesterday's models showed. It no longer appears that we're gonna see that serious 3 to 5 inch band across a chunk of the area. Instead it looks more like scattered heavy downpours now with some spots getting 1 to 2 inches.
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And it gets heavy amounts much further to the west than HRRR. HRRR performed very well for the last event while 3km NAM did not. HRRR was spot on with the sharp cutoff near our area. I would lean towards the HRRR for this event (sharp cutoff near our area again), but of course you never know. Meanwhile the regular NAM isn't impressed with tomorrow at all, but of course that's a horrible model that shouldn't be given much weight.
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This is looking like the type of event in which there will be a band of very heavy rain (2 to 5 inches), but mostly light amounts outside of that band. 0z HRRR is showing very heavy amounts for the Jersey shore up through NE New Jersey, but light amounts for most areas west of there. I am right near the edge. Don't know if I'm gonna get a quarter inch or a few inches. Very tough to predict.
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I was gonna start bow hunting yesterday, but 80s seems like ridiculously warm hunting weather. More like pool weather, lol. So I'm gonna start the bow hunting tomorrow. A little more reasonable hunting weather tomorrow with temps in mid-upper 70s.
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86 degrees here. Really feels like summer. I'm enjoying this last summer-like week, but also looking forward to the cooler weather for Sunday and next week. Models still giving most of us just light to moderate amounts of rain Saturday, but potential for heavier amounts for LI and CT. Then a nice cool-dry stretch for Sunday through most of next week, before another possible storm next weekend.
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High temp of 83 here today. Probably gonna hit 85 tomorrow.
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CMC is dry too. Hopefully we're in for an extended dry period.
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80 degrees here. Beautiful day. Probably gonna hit 83 or 84 tomorrow and Wednesday. A nice last taste of summer this week.
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And today's Euro isn't very impressed with Saturday. It weakens it and just gives us some showers, and then cooler/dry weather after that. Very little rain through day 10. Hopefully that will be the case.
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That's how I feel too. I was glad to miss out on the big amounts with this event (1.38" here) because we've had more than enough the last few months. I am glad that the rain came in time to help the gardening season. I was worried it was gonna be a bad season because May and most of June were so dry. It appeared we were heading into a drought, but thankfully the wet pattern started at the end of June. Just in time. It ended up being a great gardening season with some of the best crops ever. I'm still getting a ton of eggplants right now. But enough is enough. I was rooting hard for all our heavy rain/storm events this summer, but I finally got burned out on it. I didn't look forward to these last 2 events. The ground has been saturated for a long time and we don't need any more rain. Hopefully we're done with significant rain for awhile.
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I'm looking forward to next week. A much needed warm drying out period. We might get up to 82 degrees Tuesday and Wednesday. Looks like our last taste of summer. The following week looks very cool with first frost threats to the north and west.
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Yeah for NE NJ, but our area is probably done. HRRR keeps it well north and east of Middlesex County now. We were fortunate to avoid the very heavy stuff.
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Yeah I'm a little west of you here in the northwest part of Middlesex County. I guess the heavier stuff missed my area by just a few miles.
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0.97" here so far. Glad the heavy stuff has missed my area so far. Obviously still some more downpours coming for the afternoon. Latest HRRR (13z run) says this area gets another half inch to inch.
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Yep I agree. For our area a little west of the city, it's a big question mark.
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Who the heck knows for our area. As you said we could get a half inch or a few inches.
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I see the 3km is still going with the idea of more of a run of the mill heavy rain event. 1 to 3 inches for most people. Hopefully that along with the HRRR backing down is a sign that the tri-state is gonna avoid an epic flood event. Still a major event, and obviously and we can't discount the possibility of something more dramatic.
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0z HRRR has us right near the edge of the very heavy stuff. Go west into Somerset County and amounts drop off to very little. Extremely close call for our area.
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Yeah the models are all over the place as you'd expect.
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Lets's hope. If it was the winter I'd be rooting hard to get hit by a lot of snow from an inverted trough, but we don't need any more heavy rain right now. Hopefully this will keep trending east, but who knows. Extremely difficult forecast.
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Yeah 3km is suddlenly much less bullish on anyone in the tri-state getting huge amounts. Keeps the extremely heavy stuff to the southeast off the coast. As many have pointed out, this is the type of event that is incredibly hard to predict. We won't know until tomorrow what area will get under the extremely heavy band. Hopefully it will miss like 3km NAM shows, but who knows.
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That's going to be a much-needed drying out period after friday's big rain event. Looks like high temps mid-upper 70s for our area sunday through most of next week. Maybe close to 80 a couple of the days early week. Looking forward to next week.