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winterwx21

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Everything posted by winterwx21

  1. Up late tonight so I decided to take a look at the Euro, and I see it has a nice snowstorm for next tuesday. A long way to go on that and I know we have 2 annoying cutters to get through before then, but hopefully we'll have something nice to look forward to for next week.
  2. I was just outside and some rain is starting to mix in here now. Only a few flakes with sleet and a little rain. Temp up a degree to 34. Looks as if I'm done with accumulation here. 2 inches here. Glad we got to the high end of my prediction. Beautiful scene out there. A couple inches is a small event obviously, but it's much better than getting nothing.
  3. Sleet starting to mix back in here now too. We're almost done but we're gonna end up close to 2 inches ... pretty nice. As you said, HRRR did a good job this afternoon showing the snow hanging on longer. It was too warm last night into this morning, but its strength is supposed to be very short range so it did its job.
  4. It's kinda interesting. You can see the mix line making more progress north through Somerset County but it's getting beaten down a bit in Middlesex County. I'm in northwest Middlesex County not too far from the Somerset border, so that's why I'm seeing some sleet mixing in now.
  5. A solid half inch here and the snow is really coming down. I see the mix line is getting into central Middlesex County now, so we probably won't have snow too much longer. We should be able to get close to 1 inch though.
  6. We have a nice little quarter inch coating here and it's snowing moderately. The mix line is moving up into southern Middlesex County now, so I'd be surprised if we get to 3. I'm thinking more like 1, but 2 isn't out of the question. We'll see.
  7. 34 degrees with moderate snow here, and it's starting to dust the grassy areas. Looks as if we could get a half inch to an inch on colder surfaces here. A minor event here, but I hope folks to the north and west enjoy the snowstorm!
  8. On the 0z runs the HRRR and RGEM are too warm for northern Middlesex County, but the NAM models say we get some snow. I go into tomorrow expecting little to nothing, but hoping maybe we can squeeze out a slushy inch or two on colder surfaces. Very close call for this area. The central part of Middlesex County looks like all rain while just slightly to the north and west looks like several inches of snow. Right on the borderline here.
  9. It was good to see RGEM improve slightly. Our area is on the edge and this looks like what we've been thinking all along -- maybe a slushy inch or two on colder surfaces for our area. Maybe. Wouldn't be surprised if it's just a coating. RGEM has a bit of a warm bias, but as usual it outperformed the NAM big-time. We've seen that so many times in recent years.
  10. We've known the coast has a good chance of seeing very little, but this Euro run is so bad that it has almost nothing for our area. Hopefully things will look a little better tomorrow, but it's hard to be optimistic right now with Euro and RGEM so warm. NAM is probably off its rocker like we've seen so many times.
  11. For our area slightly away from the coast, I'll be very happy if we can squeeze out 2 to 3 slushy inches on colder surfaces. We have a ways to go before we can be confident that even that is gonna happen though. At least the Euro got me a little more optimistic.
  12. It'll be good to get some significant cold air in here for an extended period of time in mid January. Hopefully that will give the coast a better shot at a snowstorm. Looks encouraging.
  13. I don't toss the GFS scenario out the window. I just said good luck, because I think it's only a slight chance of that happening. Back end snows very rarely work out for our area, and GFS isn't the model I want on my side. The other models don't save the coast with back end snow. I think the GFS will cave, but we'll hope and keep an eye on the situation. Right now I think it's more realistic to think that my area could get a slushy inch or two on the front end.
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