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winterwx21

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Everything posted by winterwx21

  1. winterwx21
    Perfect timing for accumulations too since it's happening during the overnight to early morning.
  2. winterwx21
    Glad to see this trended our way on the 12z models. 2 to 4 looks like a good call for most now. WWA for my area and as others have said, it'll likely be expanded north this afternoon.
  3. winterwx21
    Lost the RGEM but gained the GFS, lol. GFS went from the worst for our area this afternoon to now the best. Gets about 3 inches up to my area now. As usual it's a bumpy ride with the models in the few days before an event. Right now I'd say 1 to 3 is the best forecast, but we'll see what tomorrow brings.
  4. winterwx21
    Looks like it was both.
  5. winterwx21
    Yeah still enough time for a north bump. RGEM tonight looked lousy but HRRR and both NAMs looked ok, so it hasn't been a bad 0z suite so far. I'd love to see 3 to 4, but I'll be satisfied if we get 2.
  6. winterwx21
    After being very consistent the last couple days, RGEM just went well to the south. Hopefully it's a blip run. Everything else so far tonight at least gives us a couple inches.
  7. winterwx21
    Looks good. I want to see the 0z models before pulling the trigger on it, but hopefully we're looking at a nice 2 to 4 inch event.
  8. winterwx21
    That's what we needed to see to increase confidence a little bit. Still too early to know if we're gonna get a solid 2 to 3 inch event or just get brushed with a coating to inch type of event, but this Euro run at least makes me feel better that we're not seeing a significant south trend. Hopefully NAM will come back north this afternoon or tonight.
  9. winterwx21
    Yeah that sure is a stange error lol.
  10. winterwx21
    Nice catch, yeah that's pretty odd. At least it's not terribly far south.
  11. winterwx21
    And even moreso than being south, it just dries the system up as it moves east. Very little even for southern NJ.
  12. winterwx21
    Have to admit I'm starting to get a bad feeling even though I've always been a fan of the RGEM.
  13. winterwx21
    So basically right now we have no idea if we're gonna get 2-3 inches or almost nothing. Hopefully RGEM/Euro are right but can't have any confidence until the American models come back north. Hopefully we will see UKMET and Euro hold shortly. As usual a very difficult forecast a couple days before an event. It's never easy.
  14. winterwx21
    Bump north on the Euro as well. Looks similar to UKMET. Good way to end the night .... hopefully things will keep trending our way on Thursday.
  15. winterwx21
    Nice bump north on the Ukie. Gets a couple inches up to NYC and 3 to 4 for central NJ.
  16. winterwx21
    Even with yesterday, we're still well below normal in snowfall. So I don't know why any snow lover would want saturday to bust.
  17. winterwx21
    That's a fine early starting point. Need to see more model runs showing 2 to 4 inches before bumping the forecast up to that.
  18. winterwx21
    This NAM run actually started it out as a little rain on the leading edge before quickly changing it over to snow.
  19. winterwx21
    Good to see NAM looking like RGEM now. I think 3 to 5 might be pushing it, but 2 to 4 seems like a good possibility to me.
  20. winterwx21
    NAM coming in well north, this is gonna be a nice run.
  21. winterwx21
    But if we end up getting 2 snow events out of it (yesterday and saturday morning), at least we'll be able to say that the mid to late February pattern produced decently. Anyway 12z Euro gets light snow up here. About an inch, with more for southern NJ. Hopefully the RGEM is right and we'll see some north trends with the other models. Would be nice to get 2 or 3 inches.
  22. winterwx21
    Yep too far south so it just brushes us with a coating. Hopefully the American models are too far south right now. RGEM looked great.
  23. winterwx21
    A decent bump north from its 12z run though. It does get an inch up to Cape May County now, and I'm sure it will keep trending north tomorrow.
  24. winterwx21
    I'll be rooting for warmer temps in mid to late March, but over the next month I'll take every inch I can get. It's a real positive that this event will be happening during the overnight hours when temps will be below freezing. Right now it looks like a 1 to 3 inch event to me, but we can hope that it trends to a 2 to 4.
  25. winterwx21
    Always great to read your posts during snowstorms.
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