
winterwx21
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Everything posted by winterwx21
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Yeah nice snow shower, but not accumulating with these temps.
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Yeah I saw one of the snowfall panels on pivotal was missing data. The snowfall amounts are definitely a little higher than what it was showing.
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Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23
winterwx21 replied to BxEngine's topic in New York City Metro
Forky criticizes people for liking sports, yet he was at the US Open this summer. Too funny. I see he actually went to the sports forum to give Rjay's wildcard round NFL picks a weenie, lol. He sure loves to troll. -
The timing certainly is good for accumulations since it's coming in overnight into early morning. We should be good for a couple inches here. I know we don't put a lot of stock in HRRR when it's in its long range, but it definitely looks good on the 12z run.
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Good to see Euro making slight improvements every run. Looking good for a 1 to 3 inch event, but hopefully we can keep trending better and up that to a 2 to 4 inch prediction tomorrow.
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I'll gladly take an inch or two. Always the chance this could beef up some as it gets closer too. Who knows, maybe the UKMET will be right with the higher amounts but right now 1 to 2 looks like a good early call.
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Ukie just came in with a pretty nice 2 to 5 inch event. I agree with a 1 to 3 inch call right now.
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And the Euro didn't go bone dry. Not great but it has light snow Monday night. 1 to 2 inches. As you said, everything is showing snow except for GFS. We're still looking good for at least a light event.
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12z Euro did give us a light event. I think enough models are on board (and we're only 3 days out now) that an event is looking likely, even if it's just a light event.
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UKMET looks pretty good too. A little warm for the coast, but that model is bad with thermals as many people have mentioned. It would probably be a 3 to 5 inch deal like the CMC. Everything looks decent tonight except for GFS. Hopefully Euro will look decent later.
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Not true. It's not the huge hit that it was at 12z, but it's still showing a solid 3 to 5 inch event for most of the area.
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Yep NAM has light snow for us monday night (an inch or so) and then more precip on Tuesday. Borderline temps on Tuesday but it's long range NAM. At least NAM is showing an event.
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Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23
winterwx21 replied to BxEngine's topic in New York City Metro
No question network tv is in decline, but I wouldn't go as far as saying that almost no one under 50 watches it. I know a lot of people that are complaining about having to sign up with Peacock to watch this game. There is a lot of outrage, and New York Congressman Pat Ryan even blasted the NFL and sent a letter to Roger Goodell. It's an absolute disgrace that this playoff game isn't on tv. -
Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23
winterwx21 replied to BxEngine's topic in New York City Metro
It's so disturbing that a playoff game isn't on regular tv. -
Looks as if next week is our big winter week. Very cold and a couple snow threats. Hopefully it will deliver (I think it will) since it appears that it's gonna warm up after that in late January.
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The timing for accumulation on the CMC would be good since it has the snow overnight into tuesday morning before the changeover, but as you said it's on the western side of guidance anyway.
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It has a decent front end thump though before the changeover.
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CMC is snow to mix to rain for monday night into tuesday. Looks like a pretty good hit of snow before the changeover.
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Yep exactly. You knew the Euro wasn't gonna keep showing the snowstorm solution every run at this range (still 5 days out). All of the models will be flip flopping for awhile. At least we have good potential. If anything this Euro run should increase confidence that the warmer CMC solution is less likely to happen. I like where we are right now.
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Only 6 days to go (lol) but I like the potential here. Hopefully we can get an all snow event for a change.
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Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.
winterwx21 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Glad to hear that you avoided damage with that limb coming down.- 3,610 replies
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- snow
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Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.
winterwx21 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
The winds today are almost as strong as they were during the storm last night for our area. I got 2.48" of rain and wind gusts in the 40s. Obviously a significant storm, but it was kind of meh for our area. Terrible though for other areas that are seeing major flooding.- 3,610 replies
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Yep seems as if we can always say that 5 days before a potential winter weather event.
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And GFS brings the snow in early Monday evening. CMC has some rain Monday afternoon but snow on Tuesday. Both models give us decent accumulations. A long way to go but early next week looks interesting. Hopefully Euro this afternoon will show something nice.
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Snow to a wintry mix for the coast on this run with decent accumulations. Long way to go but this looks like our best potential of the season so far.