winterwx21

Yeah we probably have some wet weather coming in for Thursday into Friday, but hopefully it'll be out of the way in time for the weekend. Euro and GFS have a dry weekend. CMC dries it out for late Saturday and Sunday. Right now I would lean towards a dry Saturday, but the models have been going back and forth. It's questionable right now.

2.96" here so far. Yeah I'm tired of this miserable weather too. 3 days of chilly mostly light to moderate rain. Awful. I enjoyed all our storms during the summer but not this event. We did have that tremendous tropical downpour at 4:30 in the morning yesterday that gave us close to three quarters of an inch in a short period of time. That downpour was so loud that it woke me up even though we didn't have any thunder. I was half asleep but got up to look out the window briefly. I wish we could have gotten that one during the day so we could enjoy it. But other than that it has been boring miserable light to moderate rain for days. Looking forward to better weather. We should get some sunshine on wednesday. The models have been going back and forth on next weekend but right now they're showing the storm well offshore and a nice weekend. It's early but hopefully that'll hold. Longer range pattern looks warmer for early October. Would be nice to get some sunny days with temps well up in the 70s.

.72" here. Getting into a good break now ... looks as if it's mostly over for today (just drizzle and a couple more showers). The rain never got very heavy here, but a lot of light to moderate rain. Lasted a long time so it added up to a decent amount. Probably a much more significant amount of rain tomorrow. As you said, good timing on a football weekend. We'll be enjoying a football Sunday tomorrow, so won't care much about the weather.

0.48" here so far.

.2" for me too. Looks as if it's gonna pick up over the next couple hours before we get into a break in the afternoon. Maybe that can get us to .50" to .75" for today. Tomorrow continues to look a lot more impressive than today.

RGEM gives us about a half inch tomorrow but very heavy rain on sunday.

And that's what the 3km NAM shows now. It backed down on the heavy rain for tomorrow but gives us heavy rain on Sunday.

3km NAM not nearly as intense with the rain tomorrow morning. This run only gets a half inch up to our area after the 18z run had hit us hard with an inch and a half. But the regular NAM beefed it up and gives us a little over an inch.

LOL I don't run on saturdays anyway. Boy you're in the mood to troll me these days, lol. The other day you got 21 weenies for the 2 posts you made where you said you were keeping track of my posts about humidity. 21 weenies. You might have set a record for weenies, lol. And I realize it's gonna be a rainy day tomorrow. But the models are all over the place on whether it will be just a light to moderate amount or much more significant. Who knows.

Which is why I wouldn't be overconfident about our area getting a ton of rain this weekend. It might happen or it might not. Look at all the events we had this summer. Some overperformed big-time and some were big busts. The models are wildly inconsistent.

RGEM not impressed with tomorrow's round. Dries it up and mainly light rain during the day tomorrow with round 1. Not even a half inch for me. But whether we get just a half inch tomorrow or the wetter models end up being right and it's over an inch, I don't care. Either way it's a miserable saturday with outdoor plans ruined for everyone.

And most of that UKMET rain is sunday into sunday night. Struggles to get it north tomorrow like some of the other models. Ends up being an impressive event on some models despite not much tomorrow.

Who knows. Hard to predict what area will be near the cutoff as far as heavy rain vs light rain tomorrow. Stormlover is right when he says it could go either way for our area.

Yeah that's an embarrassing shift for the CMC. It went from showing heavy rain coming in dramatically tomorrow morning to now just light rain. I think JM is gonna be on the money about the confluence eating up tomorrow's rain, but we shall see.

You can see on the models tomorrow's precip getting eaten up as it moves north by the confluence/dry air from the high pressure to the north as jm1220 has been talking about. We could be counting on sunday to get our bigger totals.

Yep. Most people would think we're nutty people here for spending time debating whether this will be a half inch or 2 inch rain event lol.

I would go closer to the 1 due to the dry air issue, but we shall see. Like Stormlover said it could go either way.

Yeah still a nice soaking on the RGEM, but like I said a significant cutback. It had been giving our area close to 3 inches of rain.

NAM doesn't even give us an inch for the whole weekend now. RGEM has cut back significantly too. I think jm1220 has made a good point about this having to overcome the high pressure and dry air. It's going to be a miserable rainy weekend and we might get an inch to an inch and a half, but you probably have to go to the south to get the much bigger totals.

GFS continues to not be impressed with saturday. Just a quarter to half inch for most on the 0z run, but we end up getting a good soaking for the weekend due to significant rain on sunday.

Yeah RGEM gives most of the area 2 and half to 3 inches of rain. The Canadian models continue to be the most impressed with this event.

And 0z HRRR really shows what you're talking about. The significant rain really struggles to get up into our area on the HRRR. It weakens and a lot of northern NJ and the NYC area gets less than a half inch. It's far from a sure thing that the first round of rain on saturday is gonna be significant. Saturday will be a rainy day for sure, but it could just be light to moderate amounts up here with the heavier stuff staying south.

Pretty impressive that most of the positive departure from the extremely hot first week of the month is being wiped out.

Yeah it still ends up a nice soaking even though the significant rain can't get too far northwest on saturday, thanks to rain continuing on sunday. There's definitely a signal from some models for significant rain struggling to get well to the north and west on saturday. Even on the RGEM our heaviest rain comes sunday morning. Saturday is gonna be a wet day, but it's possible that it's just a moderate amount of rain for our area (heavier at the coast) with our heavier rain coming sunday. But of course there are some models that get the heavier rain up here saturday, so who knows. Still will be a little while before we know the details, but overall the weekend is a big washout with a lot of rain.

As perfect as it gets today. Mid 70s with dewpoints in the mid 40s. It sucks that the weekend is gonna be a washout, but spending a lot of time outside today.