winterwx21

Euro still showing a 1.5 to 4 inch snow for a lot of the area. This continues to look like a decent advisory level event. A little early for predictions, but right now looking like a 2 to 4 or 3 to 5 event. Euro right now is showing slightly less than the other models.

After the strong cold front comes through next friday, GFS is showing pretty much constant cold temps the rest of the run. If we get a long period of cold temps in mid to late January, odds are high that we'll get snow at some point. Even if it's just a couple of lighter snow events. The important thing is to get the cold in here for an extended period of time to set the stage, and that appears to be on the way. Way too early to worry about the guidance not showing snow threats. Odds are the guidance will pick up on something when we get closer to the cold pattern.

Long range forecasting is so difficult that it's not worth getting worked up over anything beyond a week. The skill level is just too low to be accurate much beyond a week. Not long ago the long range stuff indicated that early January looked promising, but now it's looking ugly instead. But we saw something similar awhile back when looking at mid December. For awhile the models showed a good period for mid December, but then there was a period of several days where they took it away. However they brought back the good look, and we ended up getting a major snowstorm. Right now early January doesn't look good, but a few days from now we could be looking at something completely different. Who knows. As I said, the long range skill level still isn't very good. It's especially difficult right now because we have blocking, but also an unfavorable Pacific. With mixed signals, the models are gonna have a hard time. So it's really hard to tell what's gonna happen in the first third of January.

There are lots of people that feel the opposite of this. After that last snowstorm, there were so many children and parents that said they were extremely happy to be able to go outside and play in the snow. They said it gave them a much needed feeling of normalcy during this pandemic. Bill Ritter of Eyewitness news, after presenting the story, even said that the snowstorm was almost like a type of vaccine during this pandemic. So there are a lot of people that feel that snow is an extra good thing during this pandemic. Getting outside to play and work in the snow is a good thing.

Not as cold as it was supposed to be today. Temp here is up to 37. Will be big-time radiational cooling tonight though.

NAM has been the model showing lower totals for this area due to both mid level warming and dry slot issues. So if we end up getting lower amounts, which appears to be the case right now (unless we get a very strong back end overnight), then NAM was the model that actually did the best.

I think we can. Probably going to pick up a couple inches on the backside of the storm early in the morning. I figured 8 to 12 for our area, so really hoping we can at least get to 8. And I think we will.

I'm in Piscataway, and sleet does mix in with the snow at times. At times all snow and at times snow/sleet mix. That's the way it has been the last hour. We have about 4.5" on the ground now. 24 degrees.

Everything looks on track for 8 to 12 inches of snow here I think. HRRR certainly looks good too, which is a good sign.

Yeah you definitely want to post the Kuchera ratio maps instead, which Pivotal Weather has.

I would think the worst case scenario for our area would be a 4 to 6 inch thump before the changeover, due to the very cold air in place. I'd be stunned if we got only an inch or two. Right now even the warmest models, like NAM and RGEM, give us about 8 inches before mixing.

Higher and lower. It doesn't go with the standard 10:1 and accounts for higher or lower based on temps and other conditions. So in this case it would show lower snow amounts and not count sleet in snow totals. Right now Kuchera NAM and RGEM are still giving my area (north-central NJ) about 8 inches of snow. Really hoping it won't continue to trend worse. Will be interesting to see if GFS and EURO still show the bigger snow solutions. Hopefully NAM and RGEM are a little too amped.

Kuchera ratio RGEM is still showing a pretty good snowstorm before the changeover to sleet. Not the blockbuster snowstorm, but I'd still be happy with a good 8 inches of snow. Hopefully this is about as warm as the solutions will get, rather than continuing to fall apart at the last minute.

Picked up a half inch of snow here, and a beautiful postcard scene with the wet snow coating the trees. A nice surprise today. I knew we'd see snow showers today, but wasn't expecting this much accumulation.

It is, but there are plenty of elite athletes that have resting heart rates in the 40s and 50s. It doesn't have to be that low to be an elite athlete. Some people seem shocked and have a hard time believing a resting heart rate in the 30s. All you have to do is a quick google search and you see plenty of medical sources that talk about it. Take a look at healthline.com and right away it says some athletes have resting heart rates in the 30 to 40 range. I guess some people have a hard time believing it because average people are in the 70s. But it's not unusual at all for athletes to be in the 40s or 30s. Anyway I want to give a specific example of how exercise can help with Covid. Exercise produces an antioxidant called EcSOD, which has been shown to protect against acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). ARDS happens in the majority of Covid ICU patients, and is the cause of death in many of them. Zhen Yan, professor of cardiovascular medicine who runs a molecular exercise physiology lab at University of Virginia School of Medicine, did a major study on this. He says even a single exercise session can produce EcSOD, which fights this syndrome that kills so many Covid patients. So he believes that exercise should be added to things like mask wearing and social distancing as recommended things that can help with the pandemic. And just overall, exercise helps strengthen the immune system and improves lung health. Here is a quote from emergency medicine physician Dr. Jebidiah Ballard, when asked if exercise can help with Covid outcomes... "Would it improve their chances if they got Covid-19? Not in a day or week, but if they can improve their overall health over weeks, then very likely," she said. There are people on this board that obviously don't want to believe this stuff and even get irritated or take offense, but this is medical science that medical experts back up. Exercise and getting into better shape DOES reduce the risk of bad outcomes with Covid and can be done in a matter of just weeks as experts have pointed out, and I believe it's important to get this information out there. I'm sorry to the people that got offended by it, although I don't see reason why anyone should be offended. It's just about trying to help people during a horrific pandemic, and worth it if only a small amount of people beat Covid because they got into better shape. But if some people prefer to just isolate to avoid getting the virus until there is a vaccine, that certainly is a good approach too. I'm not going to go on and on about this any longer, as I've provided enough info. I wish everyone safety and good health as we try to get through the last several months of the pandemic. Take care.

That's complete opposite of what my cardiologist told me when I went in with the concern that my resting heart rate of 50 (before I started running) was too low. He told me some elite runners have resting heart rates in the 30s and I could possibly do that too. It's far from unheard of. Just do a little research on low resting heart rates for elite athletes. There have been a few that have actually had resting heart rates in the high 20s.

I haven't talked about health on here in several months. I know we talked about it some in another Coronavirus thread back in the Spring. Obviously health is extra important during a pandemic. I completely agree about magnesium! That's the one supplement I take. In general I am not a believer in supplements, believing it's much more important to get nutrients from food. But magnesium is so critical to heart and artery health, so I do take that.

No problem. Before I started running, my resting heart rate was 50. Lower than average, but not super low. Funny thing I was actually very worried about that. You go online and read about bradycardia being a resting heart rate under 60. I was having terrible panic attacks over it, so I went to the cardiologist. After examination he told me it was low because I have an extra strong heart, and told me I was probably one of those people that can get it into the 30s with an exercise program. He told me I should, so I did. The running ended the panic attack problem, thankfully. I like running 7 miles, so I'm running about quarter marathon distance.

It probably explains why I can run very fast for long periods of time. My cardiologist says it's a true elite athlete heart. I'm very lucky. I do know a couple other runners that have heart rates in the 30s.

My cardiologist tells me I have a true elite athlete heart. A small percentage of athletes are able to get their resting heart rates into the 30s. It just means the heart is so strong that it can circulate blood to the body well by beating an unusually low amount of times. You can look it up ... some athletes do get resting heart rates into the 30s.

I mentioned in an earlier post that my resting heart rate is 36. I'm sure he saw that, which is why he brought it up. I'm guessing he's mocking me for that, which is weird.

Running actually cured my knee pain. I used to have a lot of pain, but it stopped after I started running. Probably because exercise is a strong anti inflammatory. Walking is great for many people, but it doesn't do a lot (as far as cardio workout) for people that have very strong hearts. I have to run to get my heart rate up.

A number for what?? And yeah, I'm very fortunate to have an elite athlete heart. You're acting very strangely. I see someone reacted to your post with a confused emoji, and I am confused too. Don't know what you're trying to get at here.

Everyone is different. I lost 30 pounds through exercise alone. My diet was pretty good, but I was gaining weight as the years went by as my metabolism slowed down. Then I started running, and after 4 or 5 months the 30 pounds was gone. If I go out for a 7 mile run, that burns about 800 calories. If I do it 5 days a week, that's about 4000 calories burned in a week. That explains how you can lose 30 pounds in several months with exercise and not changing the diet. Of course you can do it with mainly diet and no exercise too, as you said. But some people don't like the idea of eating much less and being hungry all the time. I'd rather eat a little more and go out there and burn 800 calories with a run. Also, studies show that most people don't keep lost weight off if they did it through diet alone, but they do keep it off if they do it through a combo of diet and exercise. Obviously because you can burn off extra calories with extra exercise if you slip up and eat a little more than you're supposed to. So I'd say diet and exercise are equally important.

Obviously heart/lung health is especially critical during this pandemic, because we know that this virus attacks the heart and lungs of many people. Most people that die from this virus die because the lungs or heart give out. So this isn't just about the weight issue ... exercise strengthens the heart and lungs which reduces the chance of dying from Covid. So it's just another reason why exercise can help during the pandemic. There's no question there would be much less deaths if more people exercised. And again I just do not understand why anyone would take offense over medical advice that can help reduce hospitalizations and deaths during a pandemic. Most people don't take offense, but a small percentage of people do. They misunderstand it for fat shaming or trolling, but it isn't those things at all. Talk to any doctor and they will tell you that exercise reduces risk of having severe problems with Covid. Obviously it doesn't eliminate it, but it reduces it which is a good thing.