winterwx21

At least it appears that we will salvage 1 day of the holiday weekend. The models have the rain getting out of the way by early monday morning. Monday is looking pretty good.

I know they opened up the vaccines much earlier for young people with any underlying health conditions that put them at greater risk of severe Covid though, so it's possible he could have gotten vaccinated very early on since he had health problems as ORH_wxman just mentioned. But we don't know for sure what the situation was for him. Very sad news. Obviously a great guy. RIP.

The big change on the Euro is it lingers the rain well into monday too. The previous Euro run cleared it out for monday, and most other models clear it out for monday. Hopefully this 12z Euro run isn't a sign that monday will be bad too.

The early evening storm didn't drop a lot of rain here (only .10), but had some impressive 40 to 50mph wind gusts. We got another storm late tonight that didn't have the wind that the early evening storm had, but it had much heavier rain. A quick very heavy downpour that dropped a quarter inch. So we ended up with a little over a third of an inch of rain for the day. Finally a decent watering for gardens. Looking forward to the much bigger soaking late friday.

We don't know if next weekend's rain will stay south, but it does appear that we have a decent chance of some strong storms in the heat/humidity wednesday evening. Hopefully that will work out, because the soil is really dry right now. Really need some rain.

I know New Jersey has one of the best vaccination rates. Right now we have 44% fully vaccinated and 61% have gotten one dose. I'm sure that's the biggest reason why we're seeing a major Covid decline here now.

Here in NJ the transmission rate has fallen to 0.63, the lowest it has been during the entire pandemic. Great to see the virus in rapid decline now.

89 degrees here! Temps always go higher than forecast in these situations.

Things are rapidly improving now here in NJ. Cases are down 31% from a week ago and 42% from a month ago. 60% of people in this state have received 1 dose and 42% are fully vaccinated. It seems as if 40% vaccination is the area in which cases start to decline significantly.

And NYC ended up with a .59 total. Not bad.

Glad we got our decent half inch soaking. It was bone dry so we really needed it. Next chance of rain looks to be thursday, although not a significant event. Right now is looks like showers and maybe around a quarter of an inch.

And radar looks pretty good. Heavier echoes are making it pretty far north in eastern PA. Looks like it's gonna be a good half inch to three quarters of an inch soaking for the NYC area.

12z Euro looks good for a decent soaking. It gives NYC about .75, similar to RGEM, and gets the half inch line well up into northern NJ. GFS is probably too far south with the rain amounts. The other models are in agreement on a good half inch to 1 inch soaking.

I just read that upon further examination by US vaccine advisors, the amount of blood clots linked to the J&J vaccine increased to 15. All of them women, and 13 of the 15 under 50 years old. I assume they will resume the J&J vaccine with a warning for the blood clot risk to younger women.

Although 12z NAM came north with the heavier rain amounts, compared to last night's run. It gives NYC close to an inch. RGEM also gives NYC a good three quarters of an inch. Hopefully GFS is off with the heavier amounts staying south. We could use a good soaking.

My allergies are bothering me a bit more today (windy days make it worse), but nothing terrible. My allergies are always at their worst when the tree pollen first comes out in mid to late March, and then it calms down for April. I guess it's an initial major overreaction to the pollen by my immune system, but then it adjusts and the allergies aren't quite as bad. Every year in mid-late March I have one night where I'm up all night because the allergies are so incredibly bad. There's some kind of tree pollen here that seems to come out all at once and hits me like a ton of bricks for one night as my immune system goes nuts with the reaction. This year it was a little bit later than usual on the 28th. Maybe it was a little delayed because we had a cold February, but I was up all night with the constant sneezing and runny nose. Not even one hour of sleep. Thankfully that happens for only 1 night and then it calms down a little. Now for April and May my allergies are moderate with more sneezing and congestion than usual, but nothing too bad.

Just a light shower. Frustrating. I'm going outside now to water the broccoli and lettuce plants.

Yeah got very windy here too as the storm missed slightly to the northwest. 30 to 40mph gusts, but not even a sprinkle. I see a pretty good storm is going into central Middlesex county now. As almost always happens, storms miss just to the north and just to south for this area. I don't know why the broken part of the line goes over northern Middlesex County so often. Looks as if I'm gonna have to go out and water this afternoon.

I can see on radar that this storm is gonna miss me a few miles to the north. Very frustrating how often this happens for this area. So often storms miss northern Middlesex County just a few miles to the north and a few miles to the south. Strange how often this happens.

I see on radar some convection is starting to fire in eastern PA. The models aren't as impressed with rain amounts as they were the last couple days, but I'm hoping for a nice downpour for the vegetable garden this afternoon. It has really dried out the last week. If not this afternoon then obviously we'll have to wait for the soaking rain saturday night into sunday, but radar in eastern PA is starting to look promising for the possibility of a storm early this afternoon.

Yeah, lots of articles have come out on this because it's a major new study. I will post one more, because in this article doctors explain the reasons why the exercise greatly reduces severe Covid risk. Like what happens to the lungs when you exercise, and why that helps you fight off respiratory diseases... https://www.shape.com/fitness/tips/study-regular-exercise-lowered-risk-of-severe-covid-19 This study is getting a lot of attention because is shows such a strong association between activity level and severe Covid risk. Here is a quote from one of the study's authors... "What surprised me the most from this study was the strength of the association between inactivity and poor outcomes from Covid-19," said study co-author Deborah Rohm Young. "Even after we included variables such as obesity and smoking in the analysis, we still saw inactivity was strongly associated with much higher odds of hospitalization, ICU admission and death, compared with moderate physical activity or any activity at all," she added. And study author Dr. Robert Sallis added this... "I continue to believe that exercise is medicine that everyone should take, especially in this era of Covid-19."

Don't know if you saw this, but I posted it earlier today... https://www.miragenews.com/shot-of-exercise-can-prevent-covid-19s-deadly-543704/ This study really shows the connection between physical activity level and severe Covid risk. I've posted other studies in the past too, like one where they looked at fitness level of people that did treadmill stress tests and risk of of hospitalization. The evidence that higher fitness level greatly reduces severe Covid risk is really strong. The new study that I just posted above says that physical fitness is the greatest severe Covid risk factor besides being old and organ transplant. I think the problem is you are misunderstanding what severe Covid outcome means. These athletes that are stuck in bed because of being sick as a dog are not having severe outcomes. As rough as it is, it's a heck of a lot better than being in a hospital fighting for your life. While great fitness does not always prevent athletes from getting very sick, it does almost always prevent them from having the severe outcome of having to be in the hospital to be saved or even dying. This is a very good thing, and shows the importance of fitness to prevent things like lungs and heart failing. Also realize that while some athletes get pretty sick, there are tons of athletes that get mild to no symptoms. The virus has been much less severe for athletes than the general population. So you are dead wrong when you claim that healthy people are impacted as severely. The statistics overwhelmingly prove that you are wrong about that. A higher percentage of obese people will die from Covid, but very few healthy athletes will. Exercise is VERY important to reduce risk.

LOL, you are right about that. And I do apologize if I go overboard with that. I'll try to tone it down a little, lol. But I do think it's important to get the message out about how much improved fitness reduces severe Covid risk. So many people don't seem to realize the major connection between fitness level and Covid risk. I've posted studies that have shown it. I've seen many doctors comment that it has absolutely driven them crazy that health authorities didn't get the message out early in this pandemic about how risk can be reduced through improved health (diet/exercise). Just like a lot of lives would have been saved had we not had some overly conservative republicans (Trump of course being the biggest problem) discouraging mask use, a lot of lives also would have been saved had health authorities gotten the message out early about how to reduce risk by getting into better shape. Those 2 things have been the biggest problems during this pandemic. Really a shame ... we never should have had this many hospitalizations and deaths. You are right that I can't be sure my body would handle it as easily if I caught one of the worst variants. I think my odds of getting severe Covid where I would have to go to the hospital would still be extremely low (but not zero), but with a bad variant I'm sure odds would be higher that I could get pretty sick like we've seen with a bunch of athletes on the Canucks hockey team. I've leaned against vaccination, but it is something I will still consider. Vaccination is a no brainer for people with any kind of condition that puts them at higher risk (which is the majority of the adult population in this country), but it's a more difficult decision for athletes. Many athletes don't feel this way, but there are also many that would rather rely on the natural protection of fitness than put something unnatural into their body. But it is something I will consider in the next few weeks.

I don't go as far as thinking I'm completely immune from getting severely ill from Covid, even though Covid had very little impact on me when I had it. My severe Covid risk is extremely low, just a tiny fraction of 1%. Low enough that I don't have to live in fear. But that doesn't mean still don't be smart. I wear the KN95 masks when I go places and never do anything dumb like go to a party. Having a very tiny risk is not having a zero risk. No one is completely immune. I realize that. But it definitely makes me feel better that my risk is extremely low due to all the exercise I do. If I was out of shape, I would be terrified of the virus and would have gotten the vaccine as quickly as possible. But right now I'm still not even eligible for the vaccine because they haven't opened it up yet for the lowest risk group here in NJ. That changes next week. I will still consider the mRNA vaccine. As you know, I am very worried about possible severe allergic reaction since I have a history of that and we've seen severe allergic reactions to the mRNA vaccines. I am going to make an appointment with my allergist to talk about it. I read that being tested to see if you're allergic to the vaccine is something that is coming out soon. One thing to remember is that athletes getting very sick, like you're talking about, doesn't mean that they're having SEVERE outcomes. There's a difference between being sick as a dog in bed, and being in a hospital struggling to breathe and fighting for your life. Exercise is proven to greatly reduce severe Covid outcomes like being hospitalized and dying. But you can still get sick as a dog if you're an elite athlete. That's rough, but it's a heck of a lot better than being at risk of dying. So even these athletes that are getting very sick are still seeing the benefit of being in great shape. If they were not in great shape, they might have needed hospitalization instead. Of course there are also lots of athletes that get mild or no symptoms. I've noticed that many people are in denial about how much Covid risk is increased by being out of shape and decreased by getting into shape. I can provide quotes from many doctors and health experts that say it has been driving them crazy that getting into better shape through diet/exercise wasn't put into the guidelines early in the pandemic. I think that was one of the big failures during this pandemic and has cost a lot of people their lives. So I think it's important to get this type of information out, like the new study that I just posted.

I don't know anything about Quinton Hughes, but there will always be exceptions. Exercise greatly reduces severe Covid risk, but it doesn't eliminate it. Your attitude is downright puzzling. Greatly reducing risk isn't important, just because there will still be some cases of severe Covid among people that exercise? Is that what you're trying to imply? You'd much rather have very low risk than high risk, wouldn't you?? I would hope so.