Fozz
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Everything posted by Fozz
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But the rates will also be questionable since the event has been trending drier and flatter.
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Do you think the NAM has a better handle on QPF and temp profiles than the Canadian mesos?
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eh.... surface temps are 33-34 so without good rates it will just be white rain for the cities, before changing to actual rain.
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Yep, it will be a very close call. We tend to do well in marginal events where elevation is the main factor, and precip is already falling as snow. Sometimes you'll see white rain along York Rd while there is accumulating snow west of I-83 around Jenifer Rd. But when the rain/snow line (or wintry mix/snow line) splits Baltimore county, our latitude is not always our friend.
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Any maps?
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I'm having a bad feeling that the dividing line at the height of the storm will be around Shawan Rd. Hope I'm wrong and it's further south, but I've seen several events where the rain/snow line ended up between Shawan Rd and Middletown Rd. I don't know if there will be a last minute bump north, but those of us who are south of 39.5N can't really afford it.
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CAPE needs to move back to Carroll county.
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3K NAM has me literally right on the rain/snow line at the height of the storm. A 2 mile shift south from that would make a big difference... I'm not even kidding.
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Yeah I hope it doesn’t get to that point, though the DC crowd will disagree. I’d lock up this latest Euro run as it is.
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This reminds me of the March 2014 storms in the way it’s been trending south and weaker with time.
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And the good thing is, hardly any of that is from tonight's system (except ~1" for the far north).
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Also March 2014. Anyways, I think it will be tough for DCA to receive 5" even in the RGEM scenario, mainly because it's DCA.
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52 here, with temps pushing 60 in DC. Who's the fool now?
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Temp stayed below freezing overnight. It always does in these situations. Looks very wintry this morning... not too different from last week's event.
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That's still more than anything I've seen all season.
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3.7” with flurries. If this is it, then it puts me at just under 20” for the season.
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Some of the HRRR runs actually saw this northern dryslot coming around this time. This might be it for us.
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Definitely not as heavy anymore, but those last few hours were fun. Hoping for another burst of snow before the changeover.
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3.4” Still coming down at a decent rate in spite of the radar.
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The traffic cam for 83 right by Timonium road looks like a whiteout. https://chart.maryland.gov/video/video.php?feed=59011876001200b4004e3436c4235c0a
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26 with moderate to heavy snow. What a great event. 3.0”
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The boom and bust stuff is only there to show how it could turn out if something goes wrong. It's not there to say "haha we were still right!". I think it's good to convey other possibilities especially since forecasting winter weather is often full of uncertainty.
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Good thing that wasn't their actual forecast.
