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Fozz

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Everything posted by Fozz

  1. Fozz
    I agree, which is why I ran the numbers using the entire period from 1871 to 2017. I'm not all that comfortable with a sample size of only 30 if I can do better.
  2. Fozz
    I'm not sure of their exact methods. I guess it would make sense to do that with their 30 year averages since the sample size isn't so big. I know they reduced the totals of Dec 2009 and Feb 2010 a few months after that winter, probably because of measurement issues or some other reason I can't clearly recall.
  3. Fozz
    I did a Python analysis on Baltimore's precip totals, just cause I felt like it, and it turns out that 2018 single-handedly wrecked the normal distribution. Precip totals are now skewed to the right. Sometimes one extreme outlier is all it takes. Baltimore's final total of 71.82" is over 4 standard deviations above the long-term pre-2018 average.
  4. Fozz
    Ouch, sorry that happened. I also watched it from inside for the most part. Around mid-morning on the 16th, I went out to try getting some logs for the fireplace (we lived in the woods back then) but then the snow was too heavy so I just stayed inside for the rest of the day and watched it pile up. It was an incredible sight.
  5. Fozz
    How well do you remember PDII? That one was also huge, and it was the first HECS that I remember well (I was way too young in 1996).
  6. Fozz
    I made a similar mistake years ago. January 2011, I stayed in college (UMD) and didn't go home before the storm. I didn't anticipate the vast difference in totals between the two locations. Long story short, College Park ended up with 4" of slop. At home it was 14", with a lot of thundersnow too. It's been almost 8 years, but I'm still not sure if I've completely gotten over it.
  7. Fozz
    If you want to be a glass half empty guy, then have at it. Last year turned out alright in my backyard, and probably yours too.
  8. Fozz
    How much did they get in January 2000?
  9. Fozz
    Jan 30, 2010 was a big one for Richmond. So was January 2016.
  10. Fozz
    It's only December 9.
  11. Fozz
    If I were in that position, then I would just hop in the car and go as far south as I can. Real life can wait till later.
  12. Fozz
    It sucks for sure, especially when it goes against the natural order of things. But sooner or later, the law of averages will catch up to them. I mean, they’re literally getting more than their entire average annual snowfall from one storm.
  13. Fozz
    My bad. I just realized I clicked on the wrong WFO and looked at the data for Greenville, SC instead. So, dumb mistake from me. EDIT: Looks like they had a 7" storm last January and 8" storm the year before. And now this one. Damn.
  14. Fozz
    That's an amazing shot. Looks like at least 3"/hr rates.
  15. Fozz
    That's actually not true. The last time GSP received double digit snowfall in a season was 1992-93. So this storm really is historic for them. EDIT: I checked the wrong town.
  16. Fozz
    If these shifts had been happening yesterday then I'd probably still have hope.
  17. Fozz
    With that look, you'd think the storm would at least reach Philly.
  18. Fozz
    I've gotta say, this is really thrilling to watch, even though it probably won't go all January 2010 on us. If anything, it shows that good north trends can happen, even if it isn't north enough for most of us this time. Hope it buries Richmond and Fredericksburg.
  19. Fozz
    Exactly 5 years ago to the day, if it's the event I think you're referring to. What a fun storm. IIRC we were forecast 1-2" then zr, but a death band hit and many of us north of the cities ended up with 4-8". We had HECS-level snowfall rates for a little while.
  20. Fozz
    I hope Richmond gets raked with 12"+. Not that it matters to me, but they've been a notorious snowhole for years, so if it's not going to come up here then why not?
  21. Fozz
    I'm starting to wonder whether this March will end up colder than not only February, but also January and December. Some of the guidance is predicting some scary cold for the next few weeks, and since the actual met winter months have been so mild, I think we have a shot at March being colder than any of them, not just relative to normal but also in an absolute sense. I wonder how many times that has happened. Probably in 1960, but that sure isn't easy to achieve.
  22. Fozz
    I think we just need to remind ourselves (even though most of us already know it) that winters that are this bad, aren't the norm at all. Winters where the Carolinas to SE VA, as well as the cities north of 40N get big storms, while we get almost nothing, are NOT NORMAL. Otherwise, the whole "DC sucks" narrative gets out of control like it just before the last 3 good winters.
  23. Fozz
    2/10/10 Jan 2016 PDII December 2009 2/6/10
  24. Fozz
    6 years!!!
  25. Fozz
    From what I remember, the blizzard didn't really get going until mid-late morning, and I remember waking up surprised to see blizzard warnings in the area. From late-morning through until sundown, it was just an amazing day for those who were in the favored spots.
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