Fozz
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Everything posted by Fozz
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If the storm turns out as advertised, then I’ll be pretty satisfied with this winter, especially with the coming cold stretch afterwards.
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Yeah it definitely isn’t a DC storm.
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Yeah it's a slight shift but a welcome one for me since it makes a huge difference up my way. The 12z run made me nervous, but this one looks pretty good for just about everyone north of 70.
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I just look at their main numbers.
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CWG https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/03/02/wintry-mess-sunday-accumulating-snow-north-west-washington-sloppy-mix-around-town/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.ea47fc30f8ef
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Nope. If you're in Harford county then you want to be north and west of 95 for the good stuff.
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Yeah, I'm not worried at all that far out. I'm mainly tracking its rain/snow line since that can give a decent signal on where it sets up. Tomorrow it should have a better idea.
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I think you're good for 4-8". Probably 3-6" down my way.
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Actually the HRRR shows what psuhoffman really dreads... it's a weak, dry system. For areas west of 95, the 18z HRRR has under 0.4" of QPF through 11pm tomorrow night. But it's so far out on a questionable model that it doesn't really matter at this point.
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Yeah I just saw. Hope this keeps up through tomorrow.
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3-5 for leesburg? CWG calls for 2-5 for you.
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I'm not far from Reisterstown. Best news I've heard all day.
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What I'd do to see this verify.....
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I think his point was to show the changes between those two runs. My only takeaway from his post is that it’s a slightly colder run than 12z and there’s more frozen precip. We all know DC isn’t getting 6”.
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Hopefully the 3k NAM follows.
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The LWX mets know a lot more about this than the vast majority of us. I'm not saying they will be right, but their forecasts are based on much more knowledge and advanced analysis than what we hobbyists are capable of, so I wouldn't dismiss them or say they have zero clue. Also, last minute north jumps often happen in these setups. Remember March 2017?
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I agree. In fact, you really want to be on the right side of their 6" line. Not because you won't be happy with anything less than that, but because in these setups, the drop from 5-7" to 1-2" can be brutal.
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I think the HRRR will give a decent signal on where that rain/snow line sets up. It's not one of the most reliable models in general, but in these tight marginal setups, you don't want to be on the wrong side of that line.
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My dreaded Shawan Rd call is looking solid if this is right. Seems like LWX also agrees.
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Yep, I can attest to all of that. Being north of the beltway and west of 83 really helps in a lot of marginal storms, especially above 500 ft. Owings Mills and Reisterstown are generally in the same boat as me, with the latter being slightly better. It's a great climo for someone who doesn't want to be too far from the city. Anyways, this is looking like a solid event for the northern and northwest burbs. Maybe the highest of the season for some of us if we can break 5".
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3k NAM is a Fozz bullseye (minus the Catoctins) so I’m rooting for that. Almost 8” here if you believe the 10:1 map.
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Marginal storms have some of the best winter scenery that you can get if you're on the good side. You have a decent shot of that.
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Just hug the RGEM and 3k NAM.
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@Jeff B The 3K NAM looks pretty good for us, better than the previous run. Just about all snow north of the beltway.. and 33 with moderate to heavy rates should be able to do it. I will point out though that there is a warm layer around 770mb... it almost reaches freezing but not quite. So if it's slightly warmer up there, we could get mixing with sleet.
