Fozz
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Everything posted by Fozz
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Actually the HRRR shows what psuhoffman really dreads... it's a weak, dry system. For areas west of 95, the 18z HRRR has under 0.4" of QPF through 11pm tomorrow night. But it's so far out on a questionable model that it doesn't really matter at this point.
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Yeah I just saw. Hope this keeps up through tomorrow.
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3-5 for leesburg? CWG calls for 2-5 for you.
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I'm not far from Reisterstown. Best news I've heard all day.
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What I'd do to see this verify.....
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I think his point was to show the changes between those two runs. My only takeaway from his post is that it’s a slightly colder run than 12z and there’s more frozen precip. We all know DC isn’t getting 6”.
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Hopefully the 3k NAM follows.
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The LWX mets know a lot more about this than the vast majority of us. I'm not saying they will be right, but their forecasts are based on much more knowledge and advanced analysis than what we hobbyists are capable of, so I wouldn't dismiss them or say they have zero clue. Also, last minute north jumps often happen in these setups. Remember March 2017?
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I agree. In fact, you really want to be on the right side of their 6" line. Not because you won't be happy with anything less than that, but because in these setups, the drop from 5-7" to 1-2" can be brutal.
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I think the HRRR will give a decent signal on where that rain/snow line sets up. It's not one of the most reliable models in general, but in these tight marginal setups, you don't want to be on the wrong side of that line.
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My dreaded Shawan Rd call is looking solid if this is right. Seems like LWX also agrees.
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Yep, I can attest to all of that. Being north of the beltway and west of 83 really helps in a lot of marginal storms, especially above 500 ft. Owings Mills and Reisterstown are generally in the same boat as me, with the latter being slightly better. It's a great climo for someone who doesn't want to be too far from the city. Anyways, this is looking like a solid event for the northern and northwest burbs. Maybe the highest of the season for some of us if we can break 5".
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3k NAM is a Fozz bullseye (minus the Catoctins) so I’m rooting for that. Almost 8” here if you believe the 10:1 map.
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Marginal storms have some of the best winter scenery that you can get if you're on the good side. You have a decent shot of that.
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Just hug the RGEM and 3k NAM.
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@Jeff B The 3K NAM looks pretty good for us, better than the previous run. Just about all snow north of the beltway.. and 33 with moderate to heavy rates should be able to do it. I will point out though that there is a warm layer around 770mb... it almost reaches freezing but not quite. So if it's slightly warmer up there, we could get mixing with sleet.
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But the rates will also be questionable since the event has been trending drier and flatter.
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Do you think the NAM has a better handle on QPF and temp profiles than the Canadian mesos?
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eh.... surface temps are 33-34 so without good rates it will just be white rain for the cities, before changing to actual rain.
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Yep, it will be a very close call. We tend to do well in marginal events where elevation is the main factor, and precip is already falling as snow. Sometimes you'll see white rain along York Rd while there is accumulating snow west of I-83 around Jenifer Rd. But when the rain/snow line (or wintry mix/snow line) splits Baltimore county, our latitude is not always our friend.
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Any maps?
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I'm having a bad feeling that the dividing line at the height of the storm will be around Shawan Rd. Hope I'm wrong and it's further south, but I've seen several events where the rain/snow line ended up between Shawan Rd and Middletown Rd. I don't know if there will be a last minute bump north, but those of us who are south of 39.5N can't really afford it.
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CAPE needs to move back to Carroll county.
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3K NAM has me literally right on the rain/snow line at the height of the storm. A 2 mile shift south from that would make a big difference... I'm not even kidding.
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Yeah I hope it doesn’t get to that point, though the DC crowd will disagree. I’d lock up this latest Euro run as it is.
