Fozz
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Everything posted by Fozz
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Snow is now accumulating. 33 with a dusting.
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Light snow, 34
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I should probably stop looking at the models and let the chips fall. Easier said than done.
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Wow already?? How many feet of snow have you gotten?
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The problem with going for high numbers all the time is that if they keep busting high, people won't take them as seriously.
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I wouldn't disregard the HRRR completely at this point.
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I fully expect us to get tainted. Hopefully it won't ruin the height of the storm, but we're cutting it really close.
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12z RGEM is a bit more realistic now. Similar to the previous run, but with QPF toned down.
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I hope the NAMs are too warm. Most other models look pretty good. We're headed to nowcast time, so time to let the chips fall. Saw a few flakes.
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Really? That's awfully warm. Most stations in the area are 34 to 37, with 39 at the Inner Harbor.
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Awesome. Looking forward to this!
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Should we cut these by 1/3 since ratios are expected to be ~7:1?
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I'm expecting to mix with rain for maybe an hour or two, so it's still a little dicey, but most guidance looks pretty good up here. 34/25
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Not for all. Still looks the same up my way.
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There's our March 1962 analog in action.
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It's not like we have a choice
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I'd give up my entire tax refund to see the RGEM verify.
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Glad to see the RGEM still crushes the Maryland Piedmont. GREAT RUN.
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I’ve seen overamped NAM runs bring rain the day before a very good snowstorm (Feb 2015 comes to mind). The 12z WRF NMM run shows a very similar look, with rain all the way to mappy, but I didn’t think it was worth mentioning since it was alone at the time and is effectively only one ensemble member. If other guidance follows suit, then many of us are in trouble.
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A lot of us live in those 10-15 miles.
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What a nasty north jump.
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Yes, I’m well aware of the temp issues. I’ve seen marginal events turn out both ways.
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Yeah, not a fan of this run. We’ll see what the 3k shows.
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It’s not quite that far north but still looks to be in a good spot. Hope you enjoy!
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The M/D line is actually 25 miles from Baltimore, but I agree it’s a great spot for this storm.
