Fozz

This GFS is bringing back my dark memories of early December 2018 in the mid-Atlantic

Normally I’d trust the GFS over the GGEM (I recall the GGEM being not that good), but the drastic run to run shifts from the GFS don’t make it look very credible at the moment.

Wow... this is ungodly.

It is not wise to unnecessarily hype a storm when things are far from certain. Not sure if you remember March 2013 or March 2001.

I was 12 years old at the time in MD, and that was my second winter of tracking the weather. 2002-03 was nearly as good in the mid-Atlantic as it was in SNE, so I have all kinds of great memories of that one as well. I was actually out of town for the Christmas storm, which might be my one disappointment of the whole season, but I was told it delivered a quick 6-7" where I lived after changing over from rain. And then PDII remained my all time favorite for many years. I was too young to remember 1996 well.

I always preferred for winter storms to be named after their dates. I never was a fan of calling a snowstorm "Nemo" or "Jonas". I guess that makes me old fashioned.

This is feeling so much like December 2009. Days and days of seeing double digit and sometimes HECS totals on the models while telling myself not to believe them, all the way until the watches went up and it could no longer be denied.

I wouldn't panic just yet. Not unless the other models catch on to this.

Didn't Feb 10, 2010 fringe this area in a similar way? Granted, that was very rare setup.

Lol... a Delmarva capture.

Same here. I think we still have a good shot of at least 8-12". I'm just sick of the 1-3" events so anything warning level would be nice to see. And I missed the October storm since I went to MD a week too soon, so I haven't seen a real snowstorm here since early last December (2 rounds, 5" each so technically not warning level).

Same here. I'd take the UKMET but still be a bit jealous of NYC metro

Uhhhhh no. It's looking very good, but this is no lock if you're north of Baltimore, especially not 4 days out when you aren't far from precip type issues.

The GFS is now showing 18” here in RI. I’m very used to telling myself that it’s just a model, and isn’t realistic to expect. Is this really happening??

The second blizzard in February 2010 had a lot of mixing, especially early on before that amazing redevelopment.

Nope. I’m still in RI, though I’ve sometimes visited my old home in MD and worked remotely from there in recent months. But I’ve been paying plenty of attention to this system and this setup because it reminds me of some of my best weather memories from the past. So far SNE is looking to be in an equally good spot for this storm. Still though, I’ve been told that I still have a mid-Atlantic mentality, and that’s probably because I haven’t been there long enough to get spoiled by their climo

One of the best joys about being a winter weather enthusiast (or weenie, lol) in the mid-Atlantic is seeing a nice snowstorm, especially in December, after many years of warmth and misery. And the fact that these snow droughts often end in December makes the ending even more spectacular, and they also tend to be accompanied by stretches of deep winter. December 2002, December 2009, and December 2013 (in the northern and western areas) were all great examples of what I’m talking about, and all of them later went on to become excellent winters. I’d love for the same to happen this month, with this storm.

At the very least, this seems to be the best December setup since December 2009. I just couldn't believe what I was seeing in the days leading up to that storm.

I think I see what you're saying... that if it got captured a bit later then maybe we'd be looking at widespread 18"+ totals?

Looks like an excellent hit here.

Not long ago the big storm next week was looking like a SNE rainstorm.

My pack is basically gone now. Just down to patches.

Even the normal 10:1 map looks just like December 2009 in the mid-Atlantic. Absolutely crazy run.

Taken verbatim it would rival December 2009 in many spots.