Fozz

I’ve been wondering that for years. I think super Ninos usually tend to become basin wide.

I think it would take a lot of bad luck to get shut out. It could happen, like it did in 1998 and that early 70s winter. But with a highly juiced up STJ, I’d definitely take my chances. In 2016 we got a perfectly timed -AO/-NAO even after a disastrous December, and if that happens again then all bets are off. The long range precip anomaly maps for the winter months make me feel pretty good about big storm chances.

I believe somewhere on the East coast will get a HECS, just not sure exactly where.

A warm winter is a rock solid lock at this point. I don’t care that some monthly long range maps show blue in the east. This will be a record breaking Super Nino so we need to look at the fundamentals. Our only hope is that it’s closer to +3°F (which is salvageable esp with above average precip) rather than a +8 to +10 disaster. And yeah there is a shot of a big storm, though I think NYC points south has a better chance of that based on past Super Nino east coast blizzards.

2010 and 2016 were the only 2 winters where my old home in Maryland did better than your area.

I see a rotational signature near Fiskdale

Storms incoming

Glad to know I wasn’t just imagining it. I’m a little jealous though

We’re getting a passing shower and yet I could’ve sworn I’ve seen some frozen precip in the mix. Maybe even mangled snowflakes or graupel. And that is in spite of it being partly cloudy and 47. I’ve seen this before even in Maryland, usually in the spring when there’s a cold airmass in place and it’s probably a lot colder aloft.

Spring actually isn't too bad up here. There are nice days like today and there are lousy days that are 45 with drizzle, but those days are in the minority. Everything is blooming now and coming to life.

Just saw your thread about next winter. If a 2002-03 season happens then I’d be over the moon

How’s next winter looking? Should we brace ourselves for a Super Nino?

Yes. It was a horrible and very disappointing March. Winter just gave up after that storm late last month. Usually it puts up much more of a fight until the equinox

Very sad to hear. I will miss his updates.

Ouch that sounds pretty bad. I hope he recovers from his ordeal.