CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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Exactly. Air mass is very marginal at the surface. Down this way precip will have to fall at a good clip to cool the column. That happens to an extent on the 12z Euro, but much more so to our NE.
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Baby Steps? Lol better than last run. Ens mean looked better too. Has 1.0" imby!
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Just a bit stronger with the ridging N/NW of the upper low this run.
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Let the "trend" continue...
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It's all backside love with the ULL.
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If the 12z Euro is correct Philly into most of NJ is in for a pummeling.
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I think another subtle difference in these discussions is the "sudden" component. A SSWE is different than a SWE irt the impacts apparently.
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Front end fail, and again too warm at the surface for any frozen with the upper low. Idk if that can trend stronger/colder. Generate its own cold air?
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@showmethesnow Here is temp and height data from the EURO. Goes out 10 days and includes 150 mb level. https://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/
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That's my general takeaway yes. I was looking for some updated QBO data but this would seem to correlate with whats happening at 10-30 mb level, re- weaker zonal wind propagating downward.
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This is pretty interesting. The tercile-category anomaly of the lower-stratospheric polar vortex, defined by the 100 hPa 60°N zonal-mean zonal wind, has been used as a diagnostic for the behaviour in the ‘coupling layer’ between the stratosphere and troposphere. https://simonleewx.com/polar-vortex-forecasts/
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Hopefully the CFS is as crappy a model as we all believe it to be, lol.
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This has always looked like a bit of a longshot. I was never really enamoured with the setup esp given it's early Dec, but certainly worth tracking. What else we gunna do?
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6z GFS develops a nice batch of precip with the upper low, but pretty toasty at the surface so its rain. The air mass is marginal at best even in the wake of the coastal. Ofc sometimes magic can happen under an upper low if its strong enough and we get intense precip rates. Not sure it's happening with this one. Climo and really no cold air is tough to overcome.
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#faith
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I have seen that before. Pretty good presentation.
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Agree with this. I probably misinterpreted your post. I thought you were suggesting a 50-50 vortex (transient or otherwise) was more important than having a -AO and or -NAO. A -NAO/50-50 combo is absolutely the ULTIMATE block imo to force a favorable storm track for MA snow events.
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Yeah that's my point- vortices rotating through the 50-50 region absent a NA block are thread the needle deals. I will take that over having higher heights in that region every time though for sure. But no way in hell I believe that is the ultimate/ better or equivalent to having a sustained -AO/NAO.
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A 50-50 low really goes hand in hand with a -NAO though. Without the block, a vortex in the 50-50 region is mostly a transient feature, which is ok, but not the same as having a low trapped under a legit blocking ridge in the NA.
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Could be mine too, but I suppose it is really the @leesburg 04 storm.
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I have been liking this period for a while. The storm after the storm everyone is focusing on.
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Yeah I miss a good clipper. They can be fun, are pretty simple, but can be a challenge to get one to track to our south. Been few and far between in recent winters. If this winter ends up being ENSO neutral and EPO ridge dominant we could see a legit clipper or 2 track underneath with some decent coastal enhancement.
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Still liking the GFS getting my yard in on some deform band action with the coastal.
