CAPE

I don't think the Bering Sea actually freezes over. I think there is a strong current through the Strait, so its not likely to completely freeze either. That's my recollection from some climate/physical geography courses I took in college. I could be wrong, but I think the idea of walking across the Bering Strait is a misconception.

I hope it's not fun like that lol.

Speaking of Ravens, what a matchup tomorrow. Watson is great, but Lamar is just as good(maybe better), and plays on a better team with better coaching.. Ravens are the better team, and they are at home. Unless they come out flat, or get sloppy and turn the ball over, they should win this game.

Well the NAO certainly has had some problems keeping it up(the heights, that is) over recent winters. If I have to settle for EPO erection, I will take it. Have to take what you can get. @ravensrule will pop in any minute now- bat signal sent.

That's the exact timeframe I was referring to on the Euro op run in my post above. We keep seeing the good looks on guidance from around the 24th through the 30th. Potential is there, but timing and climo are the challenge.

Dec 1 is in range on the LR Globals, and it looks pretty cold. Frontal passage and cold pressing with suggestions of moisture lurking along the Gulf coast leading up to Thanksgiving on the Euro. Verbatim its a flat wave that would slide off the coast well south, with NS energy dropping down but well behind. More SS energy in the SW. Pattern overall looks quite active last week of Nov heading into Dec. I would feel pretty good if I lived in C/SNE.

6z has the coastal for the 24th, again implying some frozen on the northern edge. Nice setup at H5. other than ofc, November.

That was sort of a rhetorical question, lol. I Agree, but that is the fundamental issue with the weeklies, and why they are essentially useless(IMO) if you go out further than say 2 weeks beyond the end of the EPS run that they initialize on. Seems in many cases they will just continue the same general advertised look(which may very well be incorrect) for a week or 2, before possibly deviating for whatever reason. That was the context of the discussion - the advertised AO/NAO state at the end of the EPS run and looking at weeks 3 and 4 on the weeklies(first 2 weeks beyond the end of the eps run).

Most recent runs of the EPS are losing the +Heights in the NAO domain at the end. If over the next few cycles(or just the 0z run Monday AM) the +heights become more anomalous at the end of the run( NAO trending negative) what do ya think the weeklies will show on the Monday edition for early-mid Dec?

Here is the AO from the weeklies. Following the mean line, it simply continues the trend from neutral at the end of the EPS run into positive territory. NAO looks pretty much the same.

I guess i'm not. One reason is the tellies on the EPS runs lately have consistently shown both the AO and NAO trending to neutral as we get to Dec 1. So not too surprising the weeklies have both indices positive a week or 2 later. I also have little confidence that is correct, although playing the odds (given recent winters) it probably would not be a bad bet to make. If the currently advertised HL blocking does in fact verify per the current global ens guidance over the next 10 days, then I would expect the weeklies to adjust. My preference is to just take it 10 days or so at a time using the global ensembles, given the utter failure of the weeklies/climate models last winter. Using that metric, I like what I see going forward.

Thats one reason why I find them mostly useless. They are smoothed to the point of almost complete ambiguity. Some people will see those panels as pretty decent, and others will think they completely suck ass.

If you ignore the shaded anomalies and focus on the height lines it ain't too bad.

Not sure why you care lol. I know I don't. Give me a sec and I will post a couple panels tho. They aren't great, but I have seen worse.

As I, and others have said...given the favorable h5 looks advertised on recent LR guidance, this continues to be a "period of interest". Could be fun tracking times ahead.

If the QBO keeps trending to neutral/negative, combined with near solar min, favorable tropospheric forcing mechanisms that act to weaken the PV, and potentially weak Nino forcing, we may end up with a -AO and by association a -NAO. No one knows exactly how the HL look will evolve. Its difficult to predict at long lead times. I can see a case for some relatively short lived blocking in the near term, a relaxation, then a more significant NA block developing later in winter. Hopefully the PNA/EPO/WPO will be generally favorable when the NA is less so.

I agree. The super LR models are not worth more than the casual glance IMO. Just saying, what they are currently advertising in general is probably the mostly likely outcome given the persistence of a +NAO during the winter months in recent years.

The thing about the weeklies/seasonal/climate guidance- pretty much all depicting a +NAO moving forward- is they align with the persistence of the (+)NAO phase for winter going back many years. Just sayin'. It's like predicting warmer than avg temps for met winter. By default, you will probably be correct.

Ditto for the 12z EPS. Looks as good as the panel I posted this morning from the 0z run, if not better. eta: ^^^yeah like that

Because after Dec the winter was basically a torch. Probably could not have a worse Jan for cold/snow. Plus it followed an extremely cold Dec. It was quite the flip.

Don't recall the details but the pattern flipped in early Jan to complete suckage. eta- DCA had 15.3" that winter. 12.5" fell in Nov-Dec (9" in Dec). Nothing significant after that until March. Jan was an all out torch following a very cold Dec. Perfect I guess for those who want a cold, snowy, front loaded winter.

This was h5 leading up to T-day of 1989. Cold powder to right to the beaches. That was a great event for the coastal plain. 6" +. It can happen in late November.

T-day 1989 redux.