CAPE
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0z Euro is a good run for NY state and central/northern NE for next Fri-Sat.. 6-10".
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Yeah it develops a monstrous PNA ridge with multiple TPV lobes rotating down, then it drops the hammer and brings one down over the GLs at the end of the run.
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43/33 here. Should be a frosty morning. Not sure about a freeze. More likely Sunday night here.
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The wind was pretty darn impressive too.
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Damn I feel jipped and drought stricken compared to most of y'all. Not much of anything for this "event" and 5.4" for the month.
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Lots of branches down here and 2 power outages overnight. Heard a big thud in the middle of the night so I expect to see a tree or part of a tree down in the woods fairly close to the house.
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Wind. Lots of wind. Still windy. Hardly any rain lol. 0.20". Might have to get the sprinkler out by Sunday.
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Long way off, but yeah. Possibly a threat for the western highlands as it fits climo there. Places east of the mountains- realistically, maybe a period to watch for first flakes in the air.
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Did you seriously expect this to produce? In THIS area? In late October? Should be a decent squall line a bit later with some very localized wind damage..that's about it.
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Latest CFS runs concur. November may be kinda fun.
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Impressive -WPO and +PNA with a -AO and some nice ridging in the NAO domain as well on the EPS. I am totally down with an h5 pattern like this becoming a mainstay for winter.
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So as October comes to a close, what is the verdict on the SAI? Have we met the criteria for rate of change of snow cover for Eurasia south of 60N? What shall we expect as a result for the winter AO state? PV weakling or big blue ball locking up all the polar air well north? Will Cohen take credit regardless? All questions inquiring minds need answered.
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I am going to try like heck to stay up for the Baseball game, but no, not losing sleep for severe "potential" in late Oct in the MA.
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Severe in this area usually underwhelms even at peak times for it. Severe in late October... Yeah, enjoy the heavy rain with some wind gusts. I am looking forward to an awesome fall weather weekend with widespread frost on Sunday night.
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Well lets throw a CP Nino in there too so we have the holy grail for the MA.
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0z EPS has the same general look at the end of its run (hr 360).. +AO/NAO, EPO/WPO +heights.
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Looks like the heaviest snow was on the east side of Denver. Saw a report of 10" this morning for your area, and 6.6" at the airport.
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Nats got this. Home team can't win in this series.
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We knew that winter was a fluke as it was happening. Ton of luck, and the -EPO/WPO drove it and brought the cold. Likely the only way to overcome a sustained +AO during winter around here.
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Everything except heat. We almost always over perform on that one.
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Looks like the Denver area will end up with 10" of cold powder with this next storm. Heavy snow with temps in the single digits and teens. Snow on snow too in October. Something that is rare here in mid winter. @smokeybandit Keep us posted.
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Things always look good this time of year. The glass is half full. The swings come from those who hang onto every post/discussion on the key indices and the advertised LR pattern. That is all objective stuff and some speculation mixed in. There are always those who will exhibit early signs of panic because they get overemotional or lack understanding. Panic room open for business yet? I hope all turns out well with your back surgery.
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Both the EPS and GEFS have the AO and the NAO turning negative for early November. Again lets see how this plays out, and whether it means anything further down the line wrt persistence.
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I took a quick glance at h5 on the EPS this morning and saw the negative height anomalies down south towards the end of the run and was like hmm...that looks interesting, and how nice to see the antithesis of a SE ridge. Hopefully we see more of that look going forward.
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If the winter months feature a legit +AO, there better be a well placed ERO ridge on steroids to get any significant cold air delivery down here. We have seen that work recently, although we got lucky with the results at least one of those years. Even so, the mean pattern that sets up in that scenario mostly supports nickel and dime snow events with big ticket warm cutters.
