CAPE
-
Posts
34,621 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by CAPE
-
12z run yesterday was a tad better, but 0z still depicts pretty decent cold to our north in the LR. If we get cooperation in the NA, the SE ridge gets flattened/more suppressed and we could be back in the game by the 20th. And yeah that period looks toasty. Wouldn't be surprised to see a day or 2 of 70 on the coastal plain.
-
Way out there and this seems to flip and flop, but this might be the best NA look yet on a LR mean. If that PAC ridge is going to remain a stable feature, we need this to become reality.
-
Prefer it to be further sw. Baffin is the location where we want to see higher h5 height anomalies ideally. Doesn't appear to be in the cards anytime soon though.
-
Yeah after I looked again at the weeklies its about the same. Starts to improve the last week of Jan. Still think CPC is off on their EC probability for the MA given the strong signal for a SE ridge for the foreseeable future.
-
Looking at the latest CFS runs, CPC can go ahead and revise their temperature probability map for Jan.
-
Maybe a blind squirrel would have better luck?
-
Agree. In this case probably the best we can do is a neutral/slightly negative tilt. That would potentially provide some decent moisture advection into the cold air on the west side, and maybe get parts of our region under the deform band for a time. I think it is an outside shot at this point, but definitely worth watching. I would feel pretty good about chances for a few inches of snow if I were somewhere in the northern half of NJ or NE PA.
-
Not necessarily. The negative tilt is associated with better dynamics in the mid/upper levels and a more rapid intensification of the surface low. Because the pattern is progressive, a more rapidly deepening low would give our region a better chance of getting some decent precip falling into the colder air, especially places further inland.
-
Getting a bit of a negative tilt would certainly help our cause. A nice NA block would help too lol. Be a different ballgame if we could slow things down some.
-
Certainly an intriguing setup looking at h5. As it stands probably some flakes in the air with some accumulations just NE of our region, but time for further adjustments. I cant get too excited because its progressive in nature and the lower level temps are mild leading in. 6z Euro would imply a period of moderate snow over DE, but a lot would have to go right for that occur.
-
Yes. How could we possibly forget, lol. Given the different ENSO state heading into winter, who woulda thunk we could end up with the same result. Hopefully we wont.
-
This may be an oversimplification, but the key to me on the PAC side, however it actually ends up evolving from from 'bad' to 'good', is a shift in the tropical forcing away from the MC and towards the dateline.
-
If more people in our region were accepting of this/understood climo, there would be much less hand wringing when the guidance advertises a "bad" pattern. Even so-called epic patterns often result in nothing of consequence in these parts.
-
My guess is they are giving too much weight to the CFS. Very little uncertainty on the GEFS and EPS wrt to EPO ridge position and the resulting SE ridge having some staying power. That probability map would make more sense for the MA and NE if there were clear signs of a NA block developing. eta- I should have said higher or significant weight to the CFS.. "Too much" is more subjective, and based on my opinion that it's a pretty crappy model in general to use for weeks 3-4.
-
Yeah maybe this is something to watch. 6z GEFS looks a bit better than 0z, so maybe a bit of a trend. Mean trough is broader and extends further east, with the EC ridge pushing more into the W Atlantic.
-
As anomalous and stable as the PAC ridge looks on the means in the LR, we are pretty much relegated to watching the HL region on the Atlantic side for some help. It's likely just the usual end of run smoothing, but the 0z EPS seems to weaken the anomalously low h5 heights over GL with the TPV moving west a bit, and is also hinting at ridging from Scandinavia expanding into that region. Looking for signs of life..
-
The further north you go and/or at higher elevations the less critical it is to have all the weather index "stars" aligned. The upper MW/GLs and NNE can still do okay with the advertised crapola pattern. If the trough does in fact lock in out west then obviously the mountain areas out there will do quite well.
-
I thought it looked decent and much better than what we are staring at now. If nothing else that would bring cross polar flow with some clipper potential. Too bad it's the CFS at range and is about as useful as the EPS weeklies.
-
Yeah I mentioned it earlier today. PSU was very excited to hear that the CFS is advertising a shift from Pac puke to a cutter pattern with cold/dry shots.
-
Here are the actual 7 day temp anomalies for mid Jan as advertised on the latest weeklies.
-
Yeah high temps in the mid 40s would be glorious for outdoor activities around the 20th of Jan, but the advertised 500 mb pattern is not supportive of snow for this area, which is all anyone here cares about.
-
Perpetual hot garbage through V-day. Good thing they are fairly useless, although given the stable look we are seeing on the global ensembles, more believable than usual.
-
I was just being facetious. We are in fail mode by default lol. I am always impressed by the ens guidance in general inside 10 days. Especially useful when there is a less stable/predictable pattern- i.e higher uncertainty- where the op runs alone can be nearly useless due to the run to run variability.
-
Not impressive at all when 80% of the time we are in a fail pattern.
