CAPE

Definitely some notable improvements on both the GEFS and EPS today. More so on the GEFS as compared to the 0z run, particularly the TPV sliding southeastward in the LR. Both showing signs in the EPO domain. Need a few more runs to discern noise from an actual favorable pattern progression.

Discussing depressing weather reality in the LR thread doesn't go over very well. Also less chance of sending panicky weenies off the ledge, although that is definitely not a concern of mine.

Looks a bit better than the 0z run. Hint of a ridge building over AK, and the TPV is migrating SE towards Hudson Bay at the end of the run.

The EPS has been pretty steadfast on that idea, and your early concerns seem warranted at this point. GEFS had been hinting at ridge development in the EPO/WPO regions, but has since backed off and the 0z GEFS run arguably looked worse than the EPS at the end of the run. Doesn't look like we will get enough help up top to mitigate the unfavorable Pac either. Generally a weakly negative to neutral AO/NAO look in the LR. In monitoring mode now. Still very possible this ends up being a fairly transient period. I know the reality of my general climo, so I never expect much frozen in December anyway, outside of a year like 2009 when it was clear we had a textbook pattern emerging.

Yeah it's beyond denying it at this point. It's Happening!! Hopefully it is relatively short lived. As depicted, not a huge fan of the potential coastal next weekend being a snow producer for the general MA region. Its an odd setup all around, not to mention the cold looks to be running away during that time. We just cant know, however.

Looks like a fun game in KC today.

My bold prediction- We enjoy a mild Xmas courtesy of the Pacific onslaught and we get our snow chances afterwards, as usual.

Kinda chucked at this from Mount Holly AFD this morning- High pressure will build into the region to close the week, with continued cold temperatures but dry conditions. Models are suggesting the development of a coastal low next weekend, but this is approaching la-la-land in model world. Obviously, we will monitor this potential in the coming days.

Congrats! Love the sound of that stout. I am going to try to make it out there in early Jan.

It was a very good explanation/illustration of a period of blocking. He just missed that I completely concurred on it for that very period.

Ha you didn't offend me dude. Just having some fun with it. No worries.

Only casually tracking this as it really would have to come in fast and heavy for my area to see more than a trace. I would be thrilled with a half inch of frozen so I can declare an official 1" for the month.

Just quote it

Yeah I mentioned the EPO/WPO as a good example of recent blocking when the question was brought up in banter. Hopefully we see something more sustained on the NA side as we get deeper into winter. If we continue to see the QBO trend towards negative/low solar/atmospheric Nino behavior(debatable at this point), there is a decent chance blocking episodes become more prevalent and of longer duration going forward. Wrt the Pac, if it stays in crap mode for an extended period then probably the only way to overcome it for our region would be persistently strong HL blocking.

Yeah and the op has had a coastal storm for several runs, last 2 runs destroy SNE, and there are EPS members that have it, but very few are snow producers for the MA. That can change.

EPS isn't too enthused about the pre-Xmas potential yet. Actually looking through the members, there is a stronger signal for the period just after.

I think you missed the context, and also replied to my post that was addressing the period after Xmas where there clearly was no blocking on the particular run being discussed. I do fully understand what constitutes an actual block. But thanks!

tl;dr (lol) You could have saved yourself a lot of unnecessary explanation had you seen this post- The period I was specifically referring to in the post to which you replied was irt to Bob's post, and is a few days after Xmas(18z GFS). Not a block as advertised. The broader point I was making is, overall on the means, we are not seeing strong indications of sustained HL blocking going forward (-AO/NAO).

Remember to never confuse yellow snow with a lemon snow cone.

How about the Panasonic?

If you buy the latest CFS weeklies, the PAC starts to get right after the first few days of Jan. Gets really good after that. Zero NA blocking though, so its an EPO/WPO driven pattern, but looks generally cold. Ofc who knows how things will evolve in reality.

Mostly Bob.

I think Bob and i just made yellow snow in the LR thread.

A good example of a block was what we saw in the EPO/WPO domain back in November. That upper ridging was persistent for many days, and even then when it tried to break down briefly it quickly redeveloped. That persistence was the mechanism that delivered the unseasonably cold outbreaks we experienced.

Here is a fairly basic definition. This is not what we are seeing currently. We are seeing transient ridging episodes , but not a blocked flow. "Blocking events are associated with long-lasting and slow-moving high-pressure systems that "block" westerly winds in the mid- and high-latitudes, causing the normal eastward progress of weather systems to stall." When I see 50/50 lows flying northward into the upper latitudes, that tells me there is no NA block. That is not to say a bootleg/transient ridge in the NA with a 50/50 low is not beneficial, but because both are on the move, it requires more precise timing.