CAPE

16 here this morning

So whats the latest? Winter ever coming? Cancel? I was too busy yesterday enjoying the cold, ice, and perpetual snow showers to check.

Heavy snow squall here in Gettysburg. Everything is covered. Seen more winter today than I will probably see over the next 3 weeks.

A few shots I took from Washington Monument State Park today, and also a vineyard near Thurmont. Quite the ice storm they had in the higher elevations of this area. Driving up 15 to Gettysburg, the Catoctin ridges are still all frosted over. Quite pretty. Lots of snow flurry activity too.

Yeah I can. That doesn't sound right. Maybe there is a setting to suppress "likes" or something.

Wont make any difference. Chiefs claimed him because they lost Okafor to an injury on Sunday, so they are hoping he can be a situational pass rusher I guess. He has tended to run out of gas this time of year later in his career, and wasn't doing much for Arizona. I doubt the Ravens would have wanted him if he had cleared waivers. Who were they going to drop from their roster just to give Suggs, who chose to leave, the chance to some back and win a SB? I don't think that would have gone over too well in that locker room.

Getting some decent showers now.

This ass-clown Dr. Dews from the NE forum seems to like to come to ours and laugh at serious posts. Never contributes anything of value. GTFOH.

36 and drizzle. Temp rose a couple degrees overnight. What a cold, miserable period. After the snow/sleet/rain of yesterday morning, it's been a drizzle fest here. Barely a quarter inch of rain total so far.

0z EPS at the end of the run looks pretty decent. A workable pattern with a split flow and probably normal temps for the east. 0z GEFS is similar but has a deeper western US/EPac trough and hangs onto a weak EC ridge. Looks good up top though, NA in particular. Both have colder air building into the western half of Canada courtesy of the EPO ridge. It's a waiting/monitoring game now to see how long it takes to get some of that cold delivered to the eastern US. Verbatim, the EPS look would probably put us back in the game a bit sooner.

It was easy enough to dismiss the CMC but now the GFS is showing a very similar evolution. Have to see if it sticks for a few runs.

That piece of NS energy makes it a tad more interesting. Surface and 850s are colder and the trough is more neutral instead of positively tilted.

Looks pretty similar to the 12z CMC.

Can one be taught to hallucinate (without LSD)?

12/16: 0.1" Total: 0.6"

NYE snow...maybe.

Like I said in banter earlier, enjoy your Christmas cheer around the fire pit. It should be perfect.

Yeah I mentioned the weeklies the other day when they had a generally cold look but it was completely EPO driven, with more of a a +AO/NAO look. Latest runs are better up top for weeks 3-4. I never pay too much attention past that as it's very likely to change, but that is a cold and active look.

There are some good things happening here on this panel up top, but the TPV splits and dumps energy into the western trough. Overall it implies slow progress towards a more favorable pattern.

Yeah that would get some cold air into the Lower 48 for the new year. Probably be pretty transient with a nice cutter on the backside, but hey, gotta start somewhere.

Looks like Christmas eve may feature perfect weather for sitting around the fire pit with some holiday cheer.

Not if we have an active Pac/STJ. With a piece of the TPV nearby, it can shed off lobes and contribute to confluence/help get a wave to track underneath, esp in the absence of a block.

wabbits even..

I am hunting squirrel. Mice even.

Yeah I noticed that on the 12z GEFS yesterday and commented on it. TPV was migrating towards Hudson Bay at the end of the run. If we get the TPV a bit further south, it can work for us in the absence of sustained NA ridging, and at the same time wont inhibit its development.