CAPE

Yeah the radar looks great. Too bad there is no cold air around. Down to 40 here as well, 0.15".

Super fast mover. That and LL temps have been the biggest issues since this became a legit "threat" imo.

I really want a DFH 120 right now to help me forget the horror that this storm has become. If only wetbulbzzz88888 had told me sooner that my yard was out, I could have mentally prepared myself.

You in DC bro? Anyway I concur. DC likely wont see 4".

Latest NAMs like DC area. Seems to align with current radar.. Even throws places east of the bay a bit of a bone.

The weeklies from yesterday might provide a hint as to where we go going forward. If you haven't taken a peak, it looks familiar.

43 and the rain has begun here. Damn what happened to that 27 degree temp and low dewpoint from this morning? LL ESE winds FTL. Congrats NW folks.

Its coming.

Exactly. That's why I made the post. Silly to worry about surface temps, sun, etc leading up the the event. Maybe in mid March. I was at 27 this morning. That wont help it snow in my yard later today. eta- UHI areas it obv can have an impact on accums with a marginal airmass. With the low dews and dynamical cooling, it will snow regardless. Depending on rates, might take a bit longer to stick in the cities. I would expect areas right along I-95 to see about an inch.

Or know and accept your climo, and chase when required.

What kills the east of I-95 area with this further north track is the lower level temps. Look at 925 mb and its above freezing through much of the event. It is not a good setup for advecting in colder/drier air from the north either. Unless the better forcing/heavier precip gets in here, its going to be white rain for the last hour or so as modeled. Most guidance has the best lift from central into NE MD now though. Perfect setup for a quick thump up your way.

I might have some hair if I didn't like snow + live in a place where it seldom occurs.

Why are people so concerned about how much sun there is this morning? It wont make a damn bit of difference come game time.

He is always lost. He is moaning despite his area being under a WWA for an inch or 2 of snow.

Yeah at least it still gives my yard a half inch or so verbatim.

The air mass is not a cold one. Its cold this morning because it was perfect radiational cooling conditions overnight. If the track were perfect, as guidance was suggesting over the past day or 2, then it might work out for eastern areas. Trends across guidance is a closer to the coast track, and with no real source of cold air, it comes down to dynamics. Best dynamics now appear to be coincident with the areas that tend to do well in marginal setups- inland.elevated, and less low level warming with the coastal. If this were not such a fast mover, then even with the further north/west track there might be some decent snow for eastern areas as the lower levels cool on the backside. That is not the case, however. Also a HP to the N or NW would change the outcome, but that also is not the case. Now, continue whinging.

Its 27 here. My elevation is 60 feet.

28 here. Trends on all guidance overnight and early this morning is a further north track, maybe outside of the Euro. It is cold now, but temps will warm today ahead of the developing low. With a further north/closer in track, the low level warmth will take longer to displace SE of I-95, and time is short for this one. Looks like a good thump for N central and maybe NE MD this evening. Looks very meh here with maybe a brief period of snow at the end. I should have stuck to my original plan and chased lol. Still might.

Prior to today's 12z run(which ji seemed to suddenly approve of lol), the EPS was showing incremental improvement in the Pacific. PNA has been trending towards neutral. Aligns with the latest MJO forecasts, taking the MC wave into the COD after briefly moving into phase 6. Should it reemerge, it looks like it would be in 7,8. or 1. In contrast, GEFS has been taking a high amplitude wave into phase 6. I guess what I am saying is, there are signs of a less hostile PAC, particularly on the EPS. Absolutely want the HL blocking, but hopefully it wont have to be the sole savior for winter.

I am a realist. If that 4.4 over my yard is an inch I will be thrilled.

If -ao is our best indicie for snow.... PV becomes elongated in the LR on the GEFS, and maybe the building upper ridge near Scandinavia can further perturb it. QBO continues to drop and that should correlate to a weaker PV. We shall see.

Not a thing of beauty or anything but EPS showing continued improvement in the Pac. PNA trending towards neutral in the LR, mean trough is further east, and the SE ridge is flatter/suppressed. Still has +heights building around Scandinavia, but not making much progress towards GL yet.