CAPE

I hear ya. At this point I am just going to watch and see how the new long wave pattern actually establishes beyond this weekend. Hopefully we start to see more hits pop up on future runs. I think the +heights in central Canada will build further NW going forward. Can start to see that occurring towards the end of the 0z GEFS run.

We are talking about means at range dude. The overriding theme on all guidance, including the CFS, is the improvement on the PAC side with the PNA and the EPO going forward. As you know, classically good looks that show up at D15 rarely look the same on a mean when that gets inside D10.

That is surely the reason why this now looks bleak. That, and that alone caused this storm to trend from an intrinsically bad set up where the models at range had everything going right, to what is now the most likely outcome with a surface low tracking to Toronto.

More likely with the pattern change barely underway for this coming weekend. There is a bit of a signal for that period, although it could be colder. Plenty of time.

This looks like a 'much better pattern' than the garbage one we have had the past 2+ weeks to me, and pretty much matches what has been advertised across guidance lately.. We will have to wait and see if the upcoming period produces any significant snow, but this is an h5 look that could get it done.

Column looks good for that area in southern/eastern PA. Most of that would be snow, although a good amount of it would be low ratio stuff with some sleet if this verified verbatim.

A chase would have been nice, but my expectations going back a week or so was that we would be back in the game for the last week or so of the month. That still looks good. If this works out, it is a bonus given it is literally occurring at the initial stages of a significant pattern change.

Last winter. Maybe not much below, but solidly below and esp wrt to areas nearby. Failed pretty much every way possible given the opportunities.

The goal is a "nearby" chase. If this goes to complete crap and ends up being exclusively a NY state/NE deal, I will stay home, enjoy my 20 mins of sleet, and drink high gravity stouts.

Looks like I will set my sights on Lancaster now. Probably be Mt Pocono in another run or 2.

This is generally my feeling. Some say bring the qpf and take their chances on cold. Ofc this is completely an IMBY game, and if ya live on the coastal plain, having an antecedent cold air mass in place is usually key to getting a legit snow event.

Luckily the GFS depiction of the baroclinic zone being in the vicinity of Bermuda is probably not correct lol.

My initial chase plan is Gettysburg. Subject to change based on future runs.

Thump is legit. Pretty close to 12z.

Euro says It might be time for a beach chase next week.

Just another op run at range but nice to continue to see looks like this one. Verbatim it gives us some snow from a clipper. Roll that forward and it might be snowing in the SE.

Keep an eye on the secondary coastal development. 0z GEFS is pretty aggressive with this feature, and a bit further south than the EPS. Could extend wintry precip by keeping the lower levels colder, esp for interior/northern areas.

This is pretty happy hour-ish.

Until it trends north as usual.

I noticed that. The classic h5 look period is right where we want it at this juncture though on the means.

I am considering it. NE PA looks like a decent spot and isn't too far.

Chiefs are fully equipped to come back from a big early deficit. In their 12 game winning streak, the Ravens have very rarely(if ever) been down by more than one TD. Lamar needs to work on his deep outside throws, and the Ravens need another legit deep threat. Cant always do it over the middle with the TEs. Kind of amazing it took this long to expose that one dimensional aspect of the passing game. That being said, Roman abandoned the running game way too early. Not sure it would have made much difference with Ingram severely limited though. OL played poorly, and Gus needs an opening to get rolling.

Yeah HH not so happy. Another op run down. Next.