CAPE

I think this situation calls for a bit of snarkiness.

What we are stuck with for now is a pure Pacific air mass. Looking at the 0z EPS, around Feb 3rd-4th there are indications of a somewhat colder regime building into our source region. The AK vortex is weakened but still there, so the flow of air is still largely off the Pac, but there is also some cross polar flow depicted at that time related to the TPV position. Guidance also has the NAO trending neutral around this time. Upshot is the super positive 850 temp anomalies over much of Canada weaken and get replaced with slightly negative anomalies, and some of that "moderate" cold heads SE. Until that occurs, I think we are likely looking at a very low probability of a widespread winter storm, outside of the highlands. eta- CFS still depicting a +PNA then a developing -EPO heading into mid Feb. So hopefully we see more significant indications of this at the end of the global ens runs the next few cycles. GEPS is there already at D15. Maybe it will actually materialize this time.

With a +AO and a ++EPO, its difficult if not impossible to get any deep cold down this far. There is a reason we are seeing meager snowfall probs on the means, and op run after op run with "good track" coastal rainers. Marginal cold might do it with a strong enough low, a perfect track, and some luck for inland areas, but a frozen outcome will be very difficult for the lowlands. The stubborn AK vortex seems to weaken some on the means in the LR, and there are signs of the NAO going at least neutral towards day 15. Probably still 10 days away from a potentially more favorable pattern- one that can transport legit cold into our region.

Only 21 for my yard??? Poor DT. His yard truly is the snow anus of the MA.

Three lows track SE of us on the 18z GFS, and nary a flake of snow lol. Comical shiit.

Woah. I think I have found a big ass Imperial stout I like as much as DFH WWS.

Yeah have to just let go of Dec/Jan at this point. Absolute miserable failure, esp for I-95 east. If Feb and March can deliver 2 or 3 decent events, then maybe we can salvage winter so it doesn't go in the books as a complete wreck. A bit of HL blocking would sure help that cause.

12z EPS builds some weak ridging into GL towards the end of the run. At least a neutral looking NAO. Maybe transient, but something to watch in future runs.

Hopefully there are some better trends with next week's wave(s). Squash city for now. Would be a simple way to get a decent event with just enough cold air around and a modest wave tracking underneath, but it's never that simple lol.

Realistically that is probably our first best shot at some frozen imo. I liked what I saw on the means this morning, and why I highlighted that period. Could very well end up another rainer ofc.

Pretty much the same here. Ground is frozen, ice on the creeks, and nothing in bloom. Did have some random clumps of spring grass popping up during the warm stretch, and some scattered low to the ground weedy growth, but nothing significant.

Way out there, but this is not too bad for the first week of Feb. Not spectacular, but ok for a long lead and esp given the minuscule chances for snow we have been seeing/continue to see on guidance.

In an overall mediocre pattern, this is a workable set up.

Agreed. Terrible place for snow tho most winters.

I definitely feel like I live in Salisbury this winter lol.

I much prefer snow to frigid and dry. That being said, I do like seeing frozen ponds/rivers and in some cases, even the bay. I like hiking out in the cold, on frozen ground. Wouldn't want a 2 week icebox with no precip though.

Did have the original 'bomb cyclone' during that period though. I know it sucked for I-95 and west, but that was my favorite chase to date, at the beach. Legit blizzard there. Ended up with about 6" at my house and it stuck around for 5 days before significant melting.

lol I was looking for one of those F U memes when he posted that.

I think you missed the context, but ok. Why PG anyway? We have 13 year olds up in here?

He was flipping off the MJO forecast. Pretty appropriate response.

CFS still on-board for a general cold pattern beyond the first few days of Feb. Driven by a +PNA initially, then by the big EPO ridge we keep seeing advertised on LR guidance- that ultimately fails to materialize. Maybe it will this time.

"Just bring the precip and I will take my chances". Doesn't work without cold air, and there is no legit cold air mass in sight going forward. Well, maybe in about 15 days...

Okay.......

Not trying to be mean dude, and Psu's response pretty much nailed it. "Over the top" analysis is not intended to, and cannot possibly, yield anything. You don't make many posts. Try harder when you do.