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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    No happy ending tho.
  2. CAPE
    We lost our MJO outlook expert. Whatabout the CFS?
  3. CAPE
    Weeklies have very limited use imo. Probably ok for taking a quick look at week 3 to see how the pattern may evolve based on the advertised D15 look.
  4. CAPE
    I concur. When there is an established base state for winter, and we see a continuation of that look in the LR on all major globals, I tend to believe the general idea is more right than wrong though.
  5. CAPE
    Gotcha. Op runs do what op runs do from run to run at range lol.
  6. CAPE
    Trending the "wrong way" means warmer/lack of snow. That generally happens more often as the guidance corrects(trends) as lead times shorten because that is the reality of our climo. When there is an established favorable pattern with persistence, that is when they tend to trend "better" with time. We have the opposite of that this winter.
  7. CAPE
    Always looked to me like a transient ridge moving through the NA on the means. I never saw any indications of a legit block developing.
  8. CAPE
    It doesn't always, and there is no El Nino presently. ENSO is neutral, and MJO is driving the tropical forcing bus.
  9. CAPE
    Generally agree. I posted pretty much the same thing yesterday. We could survive a +AO and do decently with snowfall, but not with a hostile PAC. The EPO ridge has been oft advertised, but not materialized since Nov. +PNA has been fleeting at best. A sustained +AO = death to snow chances here without other indices in favorable phases to somewhat mitigate it.
  10. CAPE
    lol this is my default mode every winter. I am damn well aware of where I live.
  11. CAPE
    I find it generally snows here when the h5 pattern is favorable. Doesn't mean super cold, and 2009-10 might be a bad example (high standard) but in this context it works. When the key features are in the right places and phases, marginal 37 degree temps leading into an event end up 25 and snow. We are at the other end of the spectrum this winter. 37 ends up 50 and rain with a high sliding off the coast and a storm tracking to the NW.
  12. CAPE
    It's uncanny. Until proven otherwise, we are in complete fail mode for frozen here, with no end in sight.
  13. CAPE
    The looks we are getting on the ops and ens now are pure ugliness. ++AO/+NAO, -PNA, 50-50 highs, failed attempt after failed attempt to build an EPO ridge...expect every outcome to be the exact inverse of what you want and you wont be disappointed. Then if something good happens, against all odds, you will be ecstatic.
  14. CAPE
    Decent winter day today. 24 this morning, 37 now. With the mid cloud deck, I could almost imagine a bit of snow moving in...back to the real world. It will dip below freezing tonight, but beyond that, he may be right. Pretty damn mild for the next week or so.
  15. CAPE
    You are one thick headed dude. Hopefully PSU will stop engaging you. What a waste of his time.
  16. CAPE
    No worries with that. Only relevant when it snows.
  17. CAPE
    ^lol not too impressive. Ofc given the advertised long wave pattern, and that surface and 850 temp anomalies are positive for all but about 3 days of the run, I guess that looks pretty good.
  18. CAPE
    We need that Nov pattern now. Figures the most favorable pattern we have seen would occur when snow climo completely sucks lol.
  19. CAPE
    This has been and continues to be the primary killer. With a sustained +AO, that almost always correlates to a +NAO, and with very little help to offset it in the PNA/EPO domains, the overall pattern is pretty much death to MA snow chances.
  20. CAPE
    Winter showed its hand weeks ago. The advertised look in the LR is mostly more of the same. Maybe we luck into something, but the likelihood of a notable pattern flip before it's too late is probably low. Pretty confident we will see a -NAO death block for April and May though.
  21. CAPE
    Doesn't look like sun angle 'season' will be a thing this year.
  22. CAPE
    This region has mild winters in general. That is simply the base state. Always been that way. In order to increase chances for cold/snow it takes a specific set of anomalous atmospheric features, and we don't really have any of those boxes checked his winter, other than for very brief periods. A sustained +AO combined with an unfavorable Pac is usually a killer for snow in this area, esp low elevations. Its happening.
  23. CAPE
    18z GEFS says fogedaboudit for the next 7 days(we have pretty much known this for a while now), and then this- Way out there, but what else we got?
  24. CAPE
    If I don't like it, or believe it, fake newz. #truthiness
  25. CAPE
    Who left?
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