CAPE

Maybe it will start on Feb 15. That happened once.

Gonna check out some nearby towns today- Lititz, Ephrata, and a vineyard or 2. Might go to the Welsh Mountain area. Let me know if there are any "must do" places to go/see.

Looks pretty good for out there in the highlands with temps just cold enough for snow at this point. Not sure how the rest of the region stays cold enough upstairs, and surface temps are also mild. Probably the best chance of frozen would be at onset for places east of the mountains, then maybe at the very end. With the depicted h5 look, there is just not a lot of cold air around.

Hanging out in Pennsylvania Dutch country around Lancaster for a couple days. Drove through some snow squalls yesterday.

EPS still has the AK trough at the end of its run. Maybe it will begin to show some signs in the next few cycles. It's quite possible the GEFS/GEPS combo are again on the wrong track. At this point I am not too enthused about possible coastal storms producing snow over the next 10 days. Folks further inland/at elevation probably have a different perspective. Hopefully a -EPO period materializes sometime in Feb.

At the very end of the 6z GEFS run, the AK trough flattens and it looks like the beginning of another attempt to build a ridge in the EPO space. GEPS does this sooner. Something to watch.

The 'pattern change' was advertised, but the guidance in the LR didn't have it quite right apparently. We were briefly teased with good to epic looks, but once again reality is something much different. Not as bad as where we were 2-3 weeks ago, but still a generally bad look for MA snow chances. We can only hope the models are as wrong now with the currently advertised pattern. I kinda doubt that is the case though. Like Bob said, seems winter has shown its hand.

Tracking low pressure areas near or along the east coast on the ens means will most likely be an exercise in frustration for the foreseeable future. While we will overall have "normal" temps, the air mass is of Pacific origin. The combo of a +AO and esp the AK vortex, will torch Canada, relatively speaking. Add in the TPV sitting in the NAO space, and any legit cold air is bottled up well north. Always possible to luck into something frozen in late Jan, but the pattern over the next 10 days, as advertised, is not favorable for snow. Pretty good for 35-40 degree rain though. Depicted 850 temp anomalies approaching the end of the month. Still looks like crap.

Things look less bleak, but still not good for snow chances. Two things of note looking at the advertised LR pattern from today's runs, subject to change ofc(for better or worse) are hints of a PNA ridge, and currently not seeing any signs of persistent SE ridge. Maybe a trend towards lower heights to our NE, but its way out there. Everything else pretty much totally sucks lol.

I am with Bob. Disinterested at this point. I will keep a casual eye on the means, but the way the next week or so looks, I may start to root for futility lol. Probably be two thirds through met winter without breaking an inch in my yard.

Hows the CFS looking?

33 and pouring rain. My favorite.

Not really...they always show nothing They generally show snow where it tends to snow, and nothing where it rarely happens. Not a bad tool when there is a favorable pattern for snow, and a discrete threat inside of 7 days. Otherwise it just reminds us we live too far south for snow.

Quick band of sleet came through here with a few flakes at the front end. Radar looks anemic lol. Thought I would at least see some moderate showers this afternoon/evening. Bring on the cold/dry.

Sun! Temp up to 32. Looking forward to a few passing rain showers ahead of the front.

These forecasts are clearly wrong. Consult with Mersky.

At least we have a few days of cold and dry upcoming. Decent chance the outer banks will have more snow than the majority in this sub-forum by mid week.

Some returns popping on radar overhead here as the weak part of the line approaches. Maybe some micro forcing...hoping for 30 seconds of pixie dust.

Southern end of it looks impressive on radar. Maybe Cambridge to Salisbury will get a surprise. Sure looks pathetic for my yard, as usual lol.

I ended up with 3" from that. Fun deal. Back in the days when my yard could actually maximize on an event. Been a while.

I will be in Lancaster but not until Sunday. I may do a mini chase tomorrow.

27/9 Be nice to crack an inch for the winter (LOL). A half inch would do it, but my forecast was downgraded to "little or no accumulation" I really am moving.

Latest EPS forecast could very well be "wrong". Thing is, I simply made a post stating what it is currently depicting, and that it wasn't good. Never claimed it was going to verify. No hitching of wagons. Now straighten your panties- they be all bunched up.

C'mon. A met as experienced as murky knows the CFS nails these indices far more often than the EPS. CFS is literally a model of consistency. Almost always verifies. Hardly ever vacillates.